Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/7/2020 15:55

Yep - MH said it would hopefully be received by end of Q2, so late but due any day. Tomorrow I predict.

[sherry35] 21/7/2020 15:34

The path to doubling production will become clear once the Coringa permit is issued. The issuance of the permit is over due. Perhaps it will be announced in the 2Q press release.

[tiger60] 21/7/2020 15:34

and next according to the company

[redtrend] 21/7/2020 15:19

Maybe not this calendar year, but annualise it starting from Q3 onwards ; )

I think we're all expecting as per some of the interviews a best case scenario of only 8,000 oz for Q2

[tiger60] 21/7/2020 15:17

40K+ p.a? This year?

[redtrend] 21/7/2020 15:00

SRB is a Schrödinger's cat and supports both bull and bear arguments until we receive the Q2 report.

I tend to lean on the bull side and investing long-term, take the short-term risk that COVID19 brings as a massive opportunity.

- The weakness in the Brazilian Real is of course a major benefit. In USD terms it reduces SRB's AISC.
- SRB report and sell gold on USD basis, so Brazilian Real only matters in assessing SRB's costs.
- SRB share price has not doubled, in July 2019 it was 61p. Miners are also leveraged plays against gold price and SRB has some major catching up to do if it gets through this difficult Brazilian COVID19 pandemic period. Yes it has dipped in very short-term down to 40ps for very specific company issues, but as PPVN alludes to this is no starting point for comparison.


Unless the next Q report is truly terrible, a market cap of £45m appears extremely undervalued.

Even if you assume CLNs are converted into equity, at USD GBP of 1.25, it adds 15.8m new shares. So normalised and in this scenario, SRB's market cap at this share price would be £54m for a company with no debt, cash of $6m (if you assume no cash generation for Q2 2020 and Sprott debt paid), 40k+ Oz p.a. and as PPVN states a clear, relatively quick and cheap ($20m capex) way forward of increasing to 80-100K Oz.

[morethanme] 21/7/2020 14:58

I sold out a little while back here at about 70p as there were other stocks I was more interested in at the time and am really surprised why SRB hasn't participated in the gold miners rally. With the POG so high, why has SRB share price stagnated? Is the market pricing in the covid situation in Brazil or anticipating that Coringa timescales will slip? Is there a seller, or is SRB just slipping under the radar because it has low liquidity? What are peoples opinions?

I am very interested in this company and plan to buy back into this stock in the future even if it is £1+ by that point. I am very surprised this stock is still under £50m mcap, I fully expected it to have broken 100p a share by now.

[ppvn] 21/7/2020 14:20

Doubling from when two funds were mandated sellers isn't a valid starting point as I'd suggest you well know!

[loganair] 21/7/2020 13:37

PPVN - and during this time the SRB share price has doubled.

I keep reading that as the price of gold is rising rapidly in USD over the past couple of months, so why isn't the SRB share price also rising over the past two months instead staying pretty much static. Look at the price of gold today nearing $1,840 up 6% in USD terms over the past two months while down 3% in BRL terms over the same two month.

[king suarez] 21/7/2020 13:30

We seem to be (conveniently) sat at exactly the option price for the CLNs... - coincidence?

[ppvn] 21/7/2020 13:25

Logan, the price of gold is up nearly 100% in BRLs over the past twelve months. Not sure how much more it needs to fly to meet your definition.

Anyone not buying these hand over fist is a donkey by my reckoning. Their market cap is £45m and they have a pretty straightforward path to 100k oz/pa production. Gold is going to be on the up for many years due to consistent real negative rates for the next decade or so; absolute madness. I'm happy to keep adding but I find it astonishing frankly that these aren't being snapped up by more folks.

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/7/2020 13:22

You'll live to be glad of that. Double your money by Xmas

[ppvn] 21/7/2020 11:40

Bought more here today at 76.5p.

Steal at this price imv.

[loganair] 21/7/2020 10:04

85% of Sarabi's production costs are in local BRLs and the price of gold in BRLs is down over the past two months and definitely not flying.

[bsg] 21/7/2020 09:58

This should be flying with the gold price as it is. Disappointing really.

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/7/2020 09:19

Good luck elsewhere but not sure where you get your 60p market cap valuation. Covid red herring and SRB has soooo much potential. Will bounce to 120p in no time when coast is clear of short shut down and license granted. Regardless of your medium term negative opinion, which is welcome but preferably substantiated with more meat, there's no need to support a rude moron.

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/7/2020 08:31

Lots of buying going on. Smart people realise this is the calm before the rocket.

[kennyp52] 21/7/2020 07:46

Yes sherry35 ... the nebuliser uses a licensed product so I assume can be brought into use almost immediately . I understand this is more for infected people to assist recovery . It was also interesting that Brazil is a country testing the vaccine and therefore I also presume would get a swift rollout if successful and approved . Production at SRB has clearly been a victim of Covid and ultimately we have to accept this hits the share price I think it is just a matter of holding out for things to improve with deaths and new cases still very high but on the decline . Another 2 weeks might make a significant impact.

[sherry35] 20/7/2020 20:45

kennyp52 - Thank you for sharing this nicely worded post. Evidently traderxyz burned someone on another forum.

There are solutions in hand to treat various aspects of C19. Nebeulizing asthma medication seems to have a good success rate in combating the worst symptom which is the lung infection. Not perfect, but better than the previous solutions.

SBI.TSX got slapped down to $1.22

[loganair] 20/7/2020 20:43

The price of gold has been rallying in recent weeks, having smashed a decade high of $1,800 this month. Analysts at Citigroup say bullish factors building in the gold market are pushing for another record.

According to the analysts, the metal is benefiting from loose monetary policy, low real yields, record inflows into exchange-traded funds and increased asset allocation. They expect the precious metal to climb to an all-time high in the next six to nine months, with a 30 percent probability it’ll top $2,000 an ounce in the next three to five months.

“Nominal gold prices have already posted fresh records in every other G10 and major emerging market currency this year,” the analysts said, as quoted by Bloomberg. “It is only a matter of time for fresh” highs in US dollars, they said, adding that silver will also enjoy a price surge.

The Covid-19 pandemic has been driving investor appetite for traditional safe-haven assets, with global investment demand soaring to multi-year highs. Economists have been predicting that bullion will top its longstanding record of $1,920 an ounce amid global economic recovery uncertainty.

Gold was trading at $1,811.04 per ounce on Monday, while spot silver gained 0.6 percent to $19.65 per ounce. Citi sees silver, which touched a three-year high, rising to $25 per ounce in the next six to 12 months, with potential for $30 based on the bank’s bull case, additionally supported by a recovery in global economic activity. Both metals are after six straight weeks of gains as investors consider talks on more stimulus in key global economies.