Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 24/7/2020 11:59

Conclusion: Serabi Gold has reduced its on-site workforce in response to Covid19 mitigation measures and, with 17,525oz of H1 production, is now targeting full year gold production in the range 34-37,000oz.

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 11:34

From London South East site

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 11:18

One to Watch: Serabi GoldThu 20:53I have written down my thoughts on Serabi Gold: Serabi Gold (LON: SRB) No of Shares: 59m Market Cap: £50m Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) is a Brazil focused gold mining company, which has recently updated the market with its Q2 results. Gold production stood at 8,504 ounces for the quarter, resulting in 17,525 ounces for the year to date. A key factor for the quarter is also the fact that they became debt free for the first time by repaying in full a loan from Sprott Resource Lending Partnership, of which $7.0 million was outstanding at the start of 2020. The cash balance at end of June 2020 amounted to $9.6 million. The company has a large area under its consideration and there is a real exciting prospect of a significant resource upgrade to come as we progress, and a future production increase target is a real possibility. Last year they produced over 40,000oz. This year with Covid, the expectations are once again to have a good go at that figure, going by H1, and ramping up in H2, they will probably be there or thereabout. Serabi Gold rates as a 'Super Stock' on the Stockopedia system, with an overall StockRank of 99, and impressively hits green on 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score which aims to identify the healthiest companies amongst a basket of value stocks through applying a set of nine accounting-based stock selection criteria. With the huge economic uncertainty and expectations of more fiscal stimulus being needed both in the US and Europe, the strength of the gold price is set to continue for the remainder of 2020 and 2021 at least in my opinion. Gold producers are a must for the portfolio and for me, I see considerable potential upside from the current £50m Market Cap, not only in the current production but also the exploration and potential resource and future production upside possibilities. With only 59m shares in issue, debt free and with the strength of gold and cash generation, Serabi Gold is one I am happy to have in the ISA portfolio. https://app.stockopedia.com/content/one-to-watch-serabi-gold-642203?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded

[ppvn] 24/7/2020 11:03

Not sure its as low as 100k left but we'll see. And wrt whether they could have raised cash to pay for coringa another way is yet to be seen imv; who knows they may indeed choose to not issue all of the CLNs. Would probably rather Greenstone as second largest equity holder manage it to be honest!

Also good is the options that senior management were granted at 85p. At least their interests are now firmly aligned with shareholders.

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 10:48

This has created a nice buying opportunity for newbies and all. They could have cut out the middle man and done a rights issue to the retail market @ 84.5. Maybe they could raise US$20M for 100p shares.

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 10:31

You are spot on. 100,000 available at 84.5. No quote for 105,000. Not long before we rocket. Another 100,000 to go.

[ppvn] 24/7/2020 10:29

200k-300k left potentially bojo then off we go I think. Think the exhaustion of those shares will take us way higher; where else could people have bought 1.2mm shares in the past couple of weeks without the share price going to the moon. And from what I can see it hasn't yet.

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 10:15

There's a bunch at 84.5.

[ppvn] 24/7/2020 10:01

They are tiger. Who's the seller is what we are trying to guess...

[tiger60] 24/7/2020 10:00

the 84.5 are buys

[ppvn] 24/7/2020 09:55

Hey bojo, yep another 106k gone through so far today so thats a smidge over 1.2mm now since 3rd July.

Tightfist, whilst the loan notes were subscribed for in April, May and June they weren't actually issued until 30th June. All three tranches were priced using CAD as the FX too rather than USD so its all a bit of guesswork on my part to be honest. They seem to be decent shareholders though and since they own 25% of the co I guess they will do whats in their best interests (I'd hope!!).

And yes, I mentioned the end of the cheap shares since only $1.5mm of the CLNs have actually been issued. I guess more will probably be forthcoming, but there does appear to be quite a large amount of wiggle room given by Greenstone and Serabi with regard to when these notes are issued. And yes it does mean that if serabi issue more CLNs and if greenstone are selling, then there could be more shares coming available - but since they are being sold now (potentially) it does seem to me at least to be an exercise in an attempt to increase liquidity rather than make a fast buck out of serabi (though they obviously are too!).

I don't remember the OILQ indicator when anker and city financial were selling, but maybe I can call in a favour and get someone to check back then for me ;-)

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 09:21

PPVN - more of these trades a 84.5?

[tightfist] 24/7/2020 09:07

Hi PPVN,.Some interesting observations and a hypothesis. Firstly I am sure the 76p support level was no coincidence, the market naturally gravitated to that level..I don't foresee any reason why Fratelli and Greenstone won't both be content to take take the long view with the bulk of their holdings. I suppose Greenstone may wish to book some quick profits/cash by converting CLN's and then selling shares at over 76p, but were they free to do that from 30th April when the first tranche of CLN's were issued? (Ref link in your post #6639).You mention "the end of the cheap shares"; from my re-reading of the 24th April RNS, Serabi may issue $500k CLN's per month until the end of 2020 (unless a potential increase after the TRC is lifted) so the issues of CLN's can continue? However I did notice this phrase buried in clause 1 ".....not exceeding an amount equal to US$12,000,000 less the sum of the aggregate principal amount of all Notes outstanding at that time. ".So..... if the CLN's have been converted and shares sold (ie not be "outstanding"?) does this mean that Serabi could issue yet more CLN's, raise yet more company cash for funding at 76p, improve liquidity, and Greenstone can make a turn on selling more shares in the market - an intriguing but dastardly thought?.Another source of the shares could be R&M (but MH presumably has no sway, and there are the recent Sprott freebie shares to consider)..Anyway, OILQ is certainly intriguing and increased liquidity is welcome! Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 24/7/2020 09:07

Hi Kenny,

Well if this is whats going on I have to say its actually a pretty smart mid-term plan really in my view (though I hate to say it). There have been many occasions when I've tried to buy shares and can't get a quote for these at all. I think probably similar for many of us that hold shares - if liquidity was to rise it would possibly increase interest in the name and make trading less difficult and less choppy - not to mention basically paying off the acquisition of Coringa leaving their FCF to develop and pay for exploration. Because its in tranches too it leaves more flexibility to either issue more CLNs or not - but again that's just conjecture.

Hopefully know a bit more soon. Have a good one!

[kennyp52] 24/7/2020 08:52

Reasonable opinion PPVN given the losses some investors may have been shouldering across their portfolios and leading to distressed selling thereby depressing a share price . Interesting to see if that 300k / 400k clears . Good luck

[ppvn] 24/7/2020 08:49

Hey Sherry/all,

So between 3rd July and 24th July there were a total of 2.07mm shares traded, 1.08mm with the OILQ trade condition. I don't know whether all were the same seller but what that condition means is a "Negotiated trade in illiquid financial instrument". So to me that would imply yes it is. I say that as heading back to May 1st there were no previous trades with that condition. Several of my purchases have had LRGS attached - that means large size transaction ha. But I've not seen the OILQ one before in this name.

So what does this mean? There are potentially around 300k or 400k more shares before supply dries up again and then we should be off to the races, if the theory is correct. If volume remains the same for the next week it should happen toward Thurs or Fri next week. I'll keep an eye on the OILQ volume and see when we get to 1.4mm/1.5mm transacted.

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 08:46

You are still wishing for more illness and death in Brazil. Disgusting.

[trader536] 24/7/2020 08:42

Well that was rather short lived mush, it wasn’t enough of a move to turn the technical indicators positive.

Did you notice the virus cases in Brazil are up again. Uncharted waters there, nobody knows what the outcome will be.

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 07:24

I've held some pretty speculative stuff over several decades, some that are nothing but great exploration potential based on early results, others that need licenses in undeveloped places. These get delayed and the fat cats on the board raise cash periodically to keep their limited fixed expenses going but massive salaries. SRB has ongoing production, money generating, no debt, piles of cash, extended longitivtiy, almost certain new mine license and funds available to double output PLUS the exploration potential that dreams are made of. Other than the webcasts associated with each quarterly update it remains under the radar. If they did nothing in 2021 except operate Palito, they'd end the year with cash representing over 50% of their MCAP! Madness.

[gooner1886] 24/7/2020 06:51

See how we get on today chaps after aDecent day yesterday

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/7/2020 06:36

Very interesting. Not only is this possible it also indicates, in a little way, that one of the two big holders isn't looking to buyout. Ive not suspected this but it was raised yesterday. I like the idea and hope it's correct as it's a win win - very supportive major backer, switching stock for bonds at exercise price, not aiming to increase holding, greater liquidity, temporary hold on price nearly cleared.

[ppvn] 23/7/2020 22:23

Hi Sherry,

I'll get some more details tomorrow. Don't know if it is the case but hopefully is. We'll know soon enough as there aren't many left if it is them - then the cheap shares are gone.

[sherry35] 23/7/2020 21:30

PPVN - You maybe on to something with your Greenstone selling the shares. How many shares have traded since beginning of July 1st? Is the seller the same in all transactions?