Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[kennyp52] 18/5/2020 20:05

BJ .. it seems Sherry35 has provided a very comprehensive answer to the UV question . It is fact ..exposure to direct sunlight kills just about every disease . Interestingly when Trump was ridiculed for his “disinfecting the blood” it was a case of a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing ... UV experiments were once going to be the wonder treatment .. exposing about 5-7% of blood then re introducing into the blood stream was having some incredible results up to the 1940s ... until the new miracle of antibiotics came along ... which sell .... for a lot of money .

[borisjohnsonshair] 18/5/2020 12:38

Big reduction of infections on the 17th. Let's hope they are past the peak. The population is 4 times that of Spain, so higher infections total is not ultimately surprising. It's cases per capita remain low. Kenny - sorry but I don't buy your canopy theory. Since being colonized by the Portuguese, most of the locals live in houses & apartments, not under trees.

[loganair] 18/5/2020 12:09

17 May Brazil COVID 19 - Confirmed: 241,080 - Deaths: 16,122

16 May Brazil Covid 19 - Confirmed: 233,648 - Deaths: 15,668

14 May Brazil Covid 19 - Confirmed: 196,375 - Deaths: 13,555

[borisjohnsonshair] 18/5/2020 09:44

It's such a shame you don't put your tiny pot of money where your massive mouth is - you'd lose it quickly.

[kennyp52] 18/5/2020 08:32

Loganair .. Brazil is mostly covered by “canopy” and my thought on your climate post is that in the Amazon most of the direct sunlight / UV is blocked and therefore we are possibly going to see a similar pattern to the west maybe ? Lot of deaths reported in the forest areas . Anyway .. SRB maintaining production and POG moving higher ... share price needs to react or we will know the market has the jitters on this one .

[tightfist] 17/5/2020 22:59

A few thoughts: I was surprised to see the reference to "guidance" because:RNS 26th March:"Given the current uncertainties the Company is suspending its 2020 production guidance until it is in a better position to quantify the impact".Maybe they just mean previous guidance?.I was more concerned about the recent curious wording around the Coringa licence application status..I suppose one's perspective has to be related to timescales. There is considerable short-term uncertainty but (provided they can survive) better times will likely follow. I am looking 2-3 years ahead and the current situation is probably going to become a small blip along the way?.My calcs on AISC are still outstanding - still curious about Friday's numbers..All the best, tightfist

[backinblack80] 17/5/2020 21:45

loganair, thanks for the stats, if indeed they are correct. Who knows. It certainly seems that the situation is escalating in Brazil, even in a warmer climate. Hopefully these infections are building herd immunity and the curve will start to flatten....early days though. What would be more useful would be cases/deaths X amount of population, for perspective.....

[backinblack80] 17/5/2020 21:39

Cotton4, they are possibly looking at some disruptions, but nothing is certain. I applaud management for how they are coping, so far..they have even aquired tests. The workforce seem very flexible and they seem to have a good grasp of the situation. Their assumption of 3 months could be very worst case, considering the control measures and the demographic. Remember, for the majority of young healthy adults Covid is not an issue. Mining in Brazil has been classified as an essential activity so I see no reason why this should lead to a material disruption, but nothing is certain.
Being negative doesn't, by definition, mean you or anyone else is being realistic. Everyone has a different opinions and views. You sound very nervous about things, which is understandable. That doesn't make your observations correct, but if you're really very concerned you know what you can do to mitigate...
I'm waiting for £3 pound plus....

[loganair] 17/5/2020 18:12

16 May Brazil Covid 19 - Confirmed: 233,648 - Deaths: 15,668

14 May Brazil Covid 19 - Confirmed: 196,375 - Deaths: 13,555

Therefore Covid 19 is also very infectious in hot climates as well.

[cotton4] 17/5/2020 17:28

On 14th Jan guidance was still 45-46k oz
On 14th Apr MH expected to be close.
Now we are looking at 2nd qtr reduction due to cv and lasting for 3 months.
If Brazil is now one of the cv hotspots, how realistic is 3 months only.

I sincerely hope, like other investors, that production loss is limited, but I am also
trying to be realistic. As for production, IMO this has been more crucial to SRB shareprice than the pog or the real exchange.

We can't control the pog or the exchange rate but we have control over production.

[borisjohnsonshair] 17/5/2020 15:04

Official guidance hasn't been changed, which means it's still not impossible officially. A note of caution is fair as CV is out of their control. A formal reduction of guidance at this stage isn't necessary or prudent as impossible to quantify. We are 11/24th through the year. No need to worry but extra costs a certainty, a shut down remains possible. This year is just about plodding along, settle debt, accumulate cash, get license, start Coringa. Meeting guidance isn't important.

[backinblack80] 17/5/2020 14:58

imho you're reading it wrong....
The 'guidance' is the 2020 gold production guidance nothing else.

What you seem to be referring is a statement under Going concern and availability of finance stating IF production fell for 3 months at 50% due to Coronavirus the Group will still have sufficient cash flows to settle, in full, the Coringa Deferred Consideration, all other trade and other liabilities as they fall due and will also be able to settle its existing secured loan with Sprott.

"The second quarter has already begun well, and the gold price and the
exchange rate should provide further support going forward. We have a
number of challenges ahead of us, but our workforce has already shown
remarkable flexibility and commitment, and this gives me good reason to
be cautiously optimistic for the coming months."

[cotton4] 17/5/2020 13:38

Been having a read through the latest RNS and a couple of items give me a bit of concern:

One of the 2020 objectives is the following:

'' Continue to make its best efforts to maintain production levels as close as guidance as is practical being
mindful of providing proper rest schedules for those staff at the mine site ''

The key word here for me is guidance. So what is the guidance? If read further down the RNS there is the following:

''The Directors have prepared an operational plan and cash flow forecast based on their best judgement of the likely
impact of the Coronavirus on the Group’s activities. Based on this forecast, which anticipated, for a period of up to
three months, reduced levels of gold production, compared to the Group’s 2020 budget, of 50 per cent,....''

I read that as production guidance for this qtr is 50%. Given that Brazil is one of the top cv areas in the world now, it may be prudent to leave any further investment until there is more clarity. IMHO.

I do however concur with Boris over the longer term but I need more certainty short term. Open to any opposing interpretations/views.

[sherry35] 17/5/2020 00:36

kenneyp52 & Cotton4 - All great comments. The suggestion of comparing the ASIC to 1Q19 is a good idea.

[cotton4] 16/5/2020 10:28

Rough and ready, it would appear that production costs have increased by $745k in the qtr. Which could be explained by the repairs, ore sorter consultants, outside contractors and there may be an element of overtime payments to staff re cv. The other knock down is of course the ball mill not producing. Ongoing, the only added costs would be that relating to cv and any consultants other than ore sorter who I presume will now be offsite. I await Tightfists findings. The Real was approx 4 to the dollar in both qtrs of 2020 and 2019 and the material move has been in this current qtr. Other views welcome

[kennyp52] 16/5/2020 08:35

Just on the AISC ... if this runs at , say , $800 at 10k ounces sold then the same costs on 8,000 sold increases quite substantially... $1000 per ounce .

[kennyp52] 16/5/2020 08:24

Tightfist... look forward to your calculations . My initial reaction was the AISC was higher with fixed costs being spread across lower ounces . But then they said we are in line with Q1 2019 production - so what was AISC then ? The only real change I can see is the ore sorter/ ball mill repair and outside contractor costs . In the long term this is supposed to increase yield which in turn would bring the AISC down with more ounces . The other thing is do they use ounces sold or ounces produced to work it out as the inventory was increased during the quarter - fortunate - given the recent further rise in POG . I am slightly disappointed given they stated COVID has had little impact to date and certainly in Q1 but do believe any good news will cause some momentum on the share price . Most important thing is they are still generating cash.