Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/1/2020 07:31

Interesting the Peel Hunt update after hours. Webcast at opening bell!

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/1/2020 07:20

Gents. Great news. Guidance for 2019 pretty much confirmed and also an increase for 2020. LOM increased confirmed and with no end in sight. This is waaaaaaaaay under priced and we are in very safe hands with Mike & Clive. Fair pricing will be met at some point. POG also very much on our side, although not for good reasons - WWIII

[qs99] 05/1/2020 15:26

Thanks and with pog higher and likely to stay high imo then should help with financing talks DYOr

[bomber13] 05/1/2020 14:50

According to a poster on the LSE board , Peel Hunt , Serabi's broker , reiterated their " buy " recommendation and a 157p target on Friday .

No surprises there , but this is very reassuring nevertheless given the element of doubt that has crept into the share price since the 23rd December 2019 announcement deferring the final tranche of the Coringa payment for 3 months until the full finance package has been arranged to take the mine into production .

Following last week's move , the gold price in Brazilian Reals is now only a smidgeon short of its all-time high of R6400 per oz set at the end of August 2019 , and this compares to an average of around R6150 per oz for Q4 2019 . Providing the ore sorter is going to do what is said on the tin , which would mean a potential uplift to output of between 10% and 20% , Serabi's Q1 2020 promises to be a cracker .

We will know soon enough about full year 2019 production ( mid-January ? ) , and , in the Q3 results in November , Serabi confirmed guidance of 40/- to 41/- oz for 2019 after 29878oz of production for the first 9 months at AISC US$1078 . The company also held out the prospect of AISC falling nearer to US$950 with Coringa up and running , and even lower with the ore sorter working in conjunction with organic growth at Palito and Sao Chico . I would doubt that we will get guidance on 2020 production until the full year results in March when more will be known about the ore sorter's performance .

Meeting/beating Q4 production guidance plus positive remarks about ore sorter , exploration , Coringa and the finance package will go a long way to restoring the norm in the share price , which would otherwise be well on its way towards Peel Hunt's 157p target right now .

[borisjohnsonshair] 05/1/2020 10:26

I agree with your first point totally. Differ on your second. I'd prefer to hold a stock I feel is under valued until it reaches my valuation. Taking the ups and downs. When I believe it's reached its value and it gives a dividend I'll hold the profit - free stock. If no dividends I'll sell out. Value is a moving target of course so targets rise and fall.

[mick1909] 05/1/2020 09:03

No concerns for srb just wise to spread your funds also wise to cash in now and then as nothing goes up in a straight line

[borisjohnsonshair] 05/1/2020 08:07

Of course. Any specific concerns re SRB or just a wise diversification message?

[mick1909] 05/1/2020 07:58

It bodes well for a lot of miners best to have funds across multiple miners just in case there are any unforeseen events in certain shares

[borisjohnsonshair] 05/1/2020 07:54

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities (who knows his onions), predicts gold rising to new ATH, ie above 1950. Imagine the effect on SRB FCF if that happened. With Coringa bringing AISC down to 900, we'd clear 1000 ounce.

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/1/2020 16:19

All good things ......

[tightfist] 03/1/2020 10:03

Looks like someone was listening to us....... Whoosh!

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/1/2020 08:24

Undervalued stocks catch up eventually. Sometime quick, sometime very slow.

[tightfist] 03/1/2020 08:18

We have got some catching-up to do!

[trader365] 02/1/2020 19:26

People here are selling the skin before the bear has been shot

[borisjohnsonshair] 02/1/2020 17:25

The ore sorter is 4,000 ounces for free, so 4,000 x POG. US$6M approx. That's juicy.

[edjge2] 02/1/2020 14:38

coringa will be quite juicy.

[hari] 31/12/2019 11:59

ok thanks for the link BJH

LOM def needs extending. The rest of the explo area will take time and cash resources to draw and develop, which likely to be used from existing cash from Palito/Coringa or farmin possibility.

A couple of unknowns yet, but we know production will be v good once Coringa is producing.

$1400/OZ is the minimum now..surprised we will see that low again to be honest.

[borisjohnsonshair] 31/12/2019 10:37

I realise this needs extension of LOM but that seems highly likely. The rest of their exploration area and potential actually dwarfs Palito and Coringa and they could go it alone eventually or fast track if the right farm-in comes along. We might find finance for Coringa comes in linked to this!!!!

[borisjohnsonshair] 31/12/2019 10:33

This equates to £3 to £6 share price

[borisjohnsonshair] 31/12/2019 10:30

Fair comment but I believe the AISC after Coringa in production and ore sorter functioning is the exciting part. Circa 900 or lower. By mid 2021 the debt for final payment of Coringa and mine development cost could be covered by existing cash and the next 18 months FCF. Then we'll have between 85,000 and 100,000 of production and AISC of 900. Who knows what POG will be in mid 2021 but I believe no less than 1400 is a reasonable assumption. So taking near mid of 95,000 @ $500 = US$47.5M FCF. Take PE of 5-10 = MCAP of US$237M to US$474M. Ie multi bagger.

[borisjohnsonshair] 31/12/2019 10:23

This is all you need to know about Coringa potentialhttps://www.serabigold.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PEA-Report-Published-WebFinal.pdf

[hari] 31/12/2019 10:22

Just my thoughts, so excuse my ignorance.
Just talking aloud here

I think at current mkt cap, this is close to NPV , so fairly priced.

$12m cost of Coringa cancels out out any cash for now.
Since NPV will be much more than double with Coringa ( think is will be $80m), it will add further value once funding is sorted and reaches production.

One to buy and hold and add on weakness I feel.

[borisjohnsonshair] 31/12/2019 10:00

Yes but based on proven veins. They probably stretch miles and miles further.

[hari] 31/12/2019 10:00

Ok found info..thanks to tightfist

[hari] 31/12/2019 09:54

ok

Am I correct in saying LOM is 9 years from start of production.

NPV is $38M?