Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 15/10/2019 09:13

Yep I agree with you (but not your terms :-))

[bomber13] 15/10/2019 09:01

Either word will do Boris , my point is that the market is valuing Serabi as a 40/- oz producer , nothing more , so neither Coringa nor any exploration success is in the share price in my opinion .

[borisjohnsonshair] 15/10/2019 06:36

You mean count not discount?

[bomber13] 14/10/2019 21:23

Hi there Tightfist ,

in my humble opinion the exploration potential is in for minus zero as the market has yet to discount the Coringa upside . After all , the Coringa NPV at US$1450 with 20% costs contingency , and with no regard for ore sorter viability or mineable widths , is more than the current market cap !

With regard to your question , I would say that , currently , Serabi has its handsful expediting the ore sorter at the Palito complex , paying for and building Coringa , and fulfilling near mine exploration . Indeed , our CEO has thankfully put on hold all M&A until the above is executed .

Therefore , should a " major " come along , and offer to investigate that huge 15km - 20km East West magnetic anomaly between Sao Chico and Palito that you can see on the map , why would you not talk to them about it ? It is probably big enough to interest a " major " , and probably too big for Serabi to investigate itself ?

No matter what happens , tis all gris to the mill .

[tightfist] 14/10/2019 20:19

Thanks Bomber, it's not the leverage of PoG possibilities that attract me to SRB (there are plenty of others) it's the company specifics. I was already well aware of your para 2 (particularly the density of artisanal miners 2km downstream) but thanks for your para 3 and a great reminder of previous drillings RNS'd around SC.The value currently being afforded to exploration potential is minimal, so there is an awful lot to play for, especially when, with patience, in could become organically funded too. However, in your view do they realistically need a major coming in to up the resources and stakes?Cheers, tightfist

[bomber13] 14/10/2019 19:45

In my view , the most exciting new news today is the announcement of a further step-out drilling campaign East and West of the Sao Chico mine to further evaluate the strike extensions announced in September 2018 , and with a subsequent exploration drilling campaign to test the geophysical anomalies near mine site , three targets to the East and one , the highly prospective 4 km/8 km Cinderella shear zone , to the West .

These targets have already been substantially derisked by a comprehensive induced polarisation programme , an all-embracing aero-magnetic survey , and the evidence of significant artisanal mining activity in drainage areas downstream of these tenements . Cinderella , for example , has a 8km magnetic and electromagnetic high dovetailing with a 4km chargeability high from IP .

It is worth revisiting the 20th September , 2018 RNS on Sao Chico because you will see there that step-out drilling had found grades up to around 3/4 of an oz per tonne at mineable widths 500 metres West of the Sao Chico mine , and in their underground drilling 100 metres below current mine workings they had found nearly 3oz per tonne at a width of 1.5 metres . Subsequent to this RNS , the results of the in-depth aeromagnetic survey confirmed and rubber-stamped all this prospectivity .

So , what you have in Serabi is not only a company growing gold production from 40/- oz to 100/- oz within 2 years at a blended AISC of no more than US$900 , but also a company with the organic exploration upside of a mid-tier gold producer .

[millwallfan] 14/10/2019 19:19

Some knowledgeable analysts are suggesting the current bull run has a long way to go over the next few years. One has even mooted up to $3,000. Yes there will Undoubtedly be the usual peaks and troughs along the way but hopefully we over time see higher highs and higher lows. Just imagine IF our production did get to 80k ozs in 2 years time and AISC sub $900 and PoG over $2,000 ............. I think all current holders would think we were in dreamland. Add a sensible P/E for producing miners of 8-10 and..... I won’t even dare to do a share price projection for fear of getting over excited and feinting.
Any views to bring me back down to Earth very welcome.

[tightfist] 14/10/2019 17:59

Hi rhuvaal,I would love to agree, but surely there is far too little available stock/spread for even the smallest most nimble ii player to get involved?Cheers, tightfist

[rhuvaal2] 14/10/2019 16:46

Logan' okay!

[ppvn] 14/10/2019 14:37

From the interview with Mike put up today on their website he's made it clear that the ore sorter should enable Palito and Sao Chico to get to nearly 50k oz / p.a.

Coringa has a 750tpd plant (as opposed to 500tpd at Palito) and they are going to be examining whether they can operate an ore sorter there too - so I'm not sure that will be the case...

[loganair] 14/10/2019 14:22

Most probably more like 80,000oz to 85,000oz out put once Coringa is fully up and running.

Do not need more insti's to get on board, even MH made a clear point needing less insti's.

[rhuvaal2] 14/10/2019 14:02

over 100,000 oz output and more insti's will get aboard

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 13:47

Agreed. It's a very simple business case.

[ppvn] 14/10/2019 13:35

Would have a listen to the interview with Mike on Serabi's homepage.

Honestly can't understand anyone not being supremely confident here.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 13:09

We aren't expecting earth shattering results. This is a reliable plodder, that will double output in 24 months and substantially lower AISC, hence amplifying FCF / profit. New exploration targets could give us explosive news but the base line expectation should lead to a 300-400% rise in MCAP

[tightfist] 14/10/2019 12:49

Hi Loganair,Today's update was not earth-shattering for me; I think the CRUX interview was very insightful and far, far better in giving more background understanding (and pre-faced the Q3 results).Regarding majors, Anfield merged with two others to form Equinox and Palito was then too small for them. My memory of the August? comment is that SRB have their hands full with existing projects (I welcome MH realism?) and that a major MIGHT be interested in coming on-board to progress/resource the Anomalies concurrently - nothing more has been said, however.IMO we will see some ground geo-physics results (not only Au?) in the next few weeks to better focus the Anomalies drilling work which is to commence by year end. IMO with MH at the helm there is likely is to be good steady, methodical progress - fine by me! tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 12:10

So the integrity of the Chinese Communist Party is no less than most developed nations leadership (current US president excluded)????

[loganair] 14/10/2019 11:54

Name me one politician or government who are open and honest with integrity and are not in it for what they can get out of it.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 11:46

They are just thinking about their next fib.

[loganair] 14/10/2019 11:16

China can wait it out, China are thinking generations ahead while Trump is only thinking as far as the next Presidential election.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 11:12

Chinese always move the goal posts and when contracted, fail to meet their obligations. Sooner they get knocked back 70 years the safer the world will be. Ticking time bomb.

[loganair] 14/10/2019 11:08

SRB giving Coringa 38,000oz when fully up and running with I believe Palito producing 44,000oz with ore sorter = 82,000oz gold miner is my base case scenario.

[ppvn] 14/10/2019 11:03

It was a great update for me, personally speaking.

We know that Palito and Sao Chico are capable of returning around 40k oz on an ongoing basis and that the ore sorter will add to this.

What excites me is the fact they are drilling four anomalies including the cindarella shear after they have finished the Sao chico drills.

I invested here on the basis of the company being cash flow break even but with excellent exploration potential - this year the POG has turned them into an increasingly cash positive producer. Coringa will increase this. However, if one of the four anomalies turns out to be a significant deposit then that can change the whole dynamic of this company. And they are drilling four of them!

Its exciting to see it coming together in so many ways.

[loganair] 14/10/2019 10:52

Price of Gold holding up well this morning, seems to me because the Chinese are saying they want more from the United States before signing phase 'One' of any trade deal.


For me, it was an OK update, not great and not poor.

[qs99] 14/10/2019 10:49

more than me: well said. With producing mine, POG still maintaining its high ground, drilling and new resource coming on stream in the next 12 months or so, this IMO looks like a great co. Would like forward looking increase on dividends tho to be evident from management.....DYOR