Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[morethanme] 09/10/2019 12:06

I think that the reason for the share price lies in the timing of the forced seller.

By bringing down the share price to the lows of 24p during May, just before gold sharply rose to the $1500s, the 3 fold increase in share price of Serabi looks like a response to the gold price increase. When in effect it was merely a correction in price after the forced seller's shares were cleared.

This is the reason I chose to invest in Serabi at a price of 70p after it had nearly increased nearly 300% from 24p levels and looked overbought. In effect it has yet to participate in the gold miners rally on the increased gold price.

If you look at the value of the company when gold was $1280 /Oz (excluding any value from: Coringa, exploration and the ore sorter):

Serabi producing 40,000 Oz/year - Assuming: AISC of $1100 /Oz - Profit of $180 /Oz
Annual profit of 40,000 * $180 = $7.2m (£5.9m)
With a P/E of 8 gives a market cap of $57.6m (£47.1m)
With 61.6m shares, a share price of £0.76

So right now Serabi is valued as a producer of 40,000 Oz at gold price: $1280, with no value given to the increased $1500 gold price, Coringa, the ore sorter, or future exploration. I plan to sit on this share for however long it takes to see the market revalue Serabi accordingly.

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 10:58

CEY PE is 21

[loganair] 09/10/2019 10:53

Many share prices are often driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals.

How much is Serabi Fundamentally worth?

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 10:16

Let's have a go on your wand!!!

[morethanme] 09/10/2019 09:47

Value can sometimes take a while to be recognized in the market and I am happy to sit tight until that day. I wouldn't want to be out of this share when that value is finally recognized!

[ppvn] 09/10/2019 08:47

I keep going over the financials here boris and I really can't find another that comes even close in terms of p/e, growth or exploration potential.

Baffling I agree, but it'll come good in time. Hopefully a short time, but we'll see!

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 08:05

Weirdest share on the market. Way undervalued, rises in Canada over night and someone sells a few K on opening!!! WTF!

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 07:19

Chart should stay similar or one could arbitrage in theory.....not practical but.... Anyway, hopefully signals 90p in London which would signal breakout to 100p. Nice timing to breakout as news time approaching. 150p for Xmas

[sherry35] 09/10/2019 01:35

Folks - Another 52 week high reached on the TSX by SBI. SBI closed today at $1.47 CDN on YUGE^^YUGE volume. I'm mean breath taking volume. I'm amazed at the TSX's ability to handle the trading action of 8,383 shares.

Anyways, it's another 52 wk high on this side of the pond.

[jswjsw] 08/10/2019 23:16

It's actually 1.35 / 1.49 in Toronto, which in GBX is 82.5 / 91 - so rather different spread!
j

[lessentin] 08/10/2019 20:32

Risen to a 1yr high today on tsx (cad 1.49 = 91p) albeit on low volume

[morethanme] 08/10/2019 11:43

I have been expecting gold to pull back significantly over the last month to the $1420 levels before retesting the $1560 level. I have been surprised at how resilient the price has been, even during the China golden week last week. Looking very good for the long term gold price trend.

[ppvn] 08/10/2019 11:11

Gold showing fine support and indeed looks like its consolidation around $1,500 could be completing. Ready for a fresh move up with luck, and just at the right time for Serabi.

Quiet here for the moment - nobody seems to want to buy when there isn't a pack trying to squeeze through the door!

Believe q3 production numbers will show themselves about this time next week. Wonder how Serabi managed to time the sales...

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/10/2019 16:05

You don't need L2 to see what you are saying

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/10/2019 15:58

Nowt available

[belt n braces] 07/10/2019 15:53

Level 2 impressive? Level 2 shows 15 trades for the day, what is impressive about that?

[ppvn] 07/10/2019 14:59

Fingers crossed!

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/10/2019 14:55

Tipping point. No shares and liquidity but punters keen. Will gap in style soon. L2 impressive

[borisjohnsonshair] 04/10/2019 10:41

100p leg up coming.

[tightfist] 04/10/2019 08:14

Agreed, for Q3 the Tailings facility should be continuing to deliver - as you say the PoG in Reais will be good news but maybe only in the H2 financials?.I am hopeful of reassurance on Ore Sorter commissioning progress, most likely within a brr media interview towards the end of this month? .An added bonus would be some early (soil sampling?) results (or a farm-in partnership) around the SC anomalies, prior to a drilling programme?.Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 03/10/2019 14:27

Think the ore sorter is currently being commissioned. Effect has been provisioned for zero effect in 2019 with an uptick in 2020.

So think the only real effect on q3 financials/production should be the improvement in Gold price in reais by about 20%...

[bluturtle] 03/10/2019 14:07

What date was the ore sorter up and running and will we see the effect of the ore sorter in the next financial report?

[loganair] 03/10/2019 12:28

I think overall SRB communicate pretty well with their private retail investors and do not wish the management spending lots of their time putting out reams of RNSs instead of concentrating on the important job at hand, that is to get Coringa up and running.

[tightfist] 03/10/2019 12:07

O/T: Yes, until/ unless we see a transformation in shareholder comms. it's probably healthy to view ALTN as a "flutter"; maybe I am hooked on the LSE's version of the Lottery!