Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[bomber13] 07/9/2019 11:16

There seems little doubt that , in Coringa , Serabi have bought a cheap and cracking asset , and , because of Coringa’s similarity to the Palito complex , which Serabi built and developed from scratch , they have the in-depth experience to mine it . Serabi agreed to pay US$22m for Coringa in December , 2017 when gold was in its fourth year of consolidating around $1200 against the current spot of US$1520 .

At the time of purchase Coringa's pre-feasibility numbers were life of 5 years , resource of 376/- oz , production of 32/-oz pa , AISC of US$783 per oz , NPV of US$31m at a gold price ofUS$1250 and a 5% discount rate , and an IRR of 31% , i.e. payback of just over 3 years . Yesterday’s conservative PEA , on the other hand , shows life of 9 years , resource of 544/- oz , production of 38/-oz pa , AISC of US$852 per oz , NPV of US$80m at a gold price of US$1450 and a 5% discount rate , and an IRR of 46% , i.e. payback in just over 2 years .

The PEA’s forecasts are also heavily risked with both operating and capital expenditures including a 20% contingency . Indeed , if you listen to the CEO’s podcast , he is confident of not only removing entirely the contingency on the US$25m of remaining capital costs , but he is also confident of reducing the contingency on operating costs as well .

Coringa's similar geology to the Palito mine has also raised the prospect of an ore-sorter being used as effectively as it will hopefully be used at Palito , where this new equipment is being commissioned in the next 6 months . As the CEO points out , their current trial mining licence at Coringa will allow them to truck a bulk sample of ore the 130km to Palito to see if the ore sorter would be beneficial . Given the ramifications this would have for recovery grades at Coringa , it therefore raises the very real prospect of Coringa eventually producing well North of 40/- oz pa .

The CEO has as good as ruled out equity funding . With current cash and cash flows from Palito , the final tranche of US$12m due on 22nd December for Coringa should be covered , and the US$25m ( at worst ) of remaining capital needed for Coringa will be project financed . In that respect , the CEO has alluded to multiple expressions of interest with a full set of meetings planned next week in Colorado at the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit . Please see the link below to Mike Hodgson’s breakfast talk due at 8.00am on 12th September .

At 90p , Serabi’s market cap is £53m or US$65m , a staggering 20% discount to Coringa’s NPV alone . Permit and project finance permitting , Serabi would seem to be well on its way to its goal of 100/-oz pa by 2021 . If you very simply combine Coringa's pro-forma 38/-oz pa with the current pre-ore sorter production at Palito of 42/-oz at the CEO's suggestion of US$950 per oz AISC , and gold at US$1500 , you get a cash flow run rate of US$44m pa .

And I haven't even mentioned the exploration upside around Sao Chico !

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 15:49

I'm in cey for gold and divi exposure, it's my large cap gold holding. likewise all the best.

[kennyp52] 06/9/2019 15:42

Thanks Littlepuppi7 .. been here so many times and not took my profits so for the moment I cashed in . The RNS is OK . AISC will hopefully reduce and they are building in 20% contingency . Need to make some profit and pay a dividend IMHO to be really attractive as all of the jam is tomorrow as far as I see it . I predicted 90p so am happy with that and will see what the next set of financials bring . I appreciate I might have missed the bus by then . See you posting over at CEY ... you got a holding in that one ? Quality set up in my view ruined last year by taking their eye off production . Huge resource , huge cash pile coming , free cash dividend policy and massive resources confirmed . Good luck .

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 15:36

Really looking forward to next week now, think the momentum is really here. Mikes interview , which is excellent will get played by a good number of investors, the company are at a mining investment conference, the PEA can now be officially delivered to interested parties and partners and we really have a game on our hands. Feel very comfortable that dilution is now off the table and that is going to support a strong share price performance in the short term as that uncertainty is removed. This is and remains imo the best gold play to be had on the lse in terms of risk and reward factors. And that is now there for all to see in black and white.

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 14:45

Gold is on one now as well... cey just gone positive. Huge intraday swing. This hits 100p easy next week.

[qs99] 06/9/2019 14:37

surprised hasn't really zoomed through 90p, maybe Friday RNSs don't help?!

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 14:36

Considering we are at 52 week high there is no stock available. 10,000 shares online then that's it...

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 14:15

Really moving now..

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 14:04

Indeed .. the drop was ridiculous in the first place ... some very large delayed buys now showing...

[qs99] 06/9/2019 13:41

Nice rebound in POG now as well

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 13:19

That document unlocks significant interest from Ii's. It is very very significant. And there are no skeletons in the closet..

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 13:18

Kenny I think you are missing the point of the document but good luck to you and nice to see you on here.

[kennyp52] 06/9/2019 12:49

Amazing that an RNS which really isn't spectacular can turn a share around so quickly. Took a risk last night buying on the drop at 78p so have taken profit ... yeh , yeh I know it might be premature but its banked . There are some uncertainties in the RNS and hurdles to overcome yet and with POG taking a bit of a battering the last 2 days it just feels right to bank the profit . Sincerely hope it goes onward and upward for those holding long . Its a good board . Thanks.

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 12:35

1 mm left at 90.. there were 4....

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 12:33

It's going down imo.

[qs99] 06/9/2019 12:27

here comes the 90p barrier!

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 12:23

So just finished listening.. to anyone who has not listened.. listen now it's exceptionally positive. Also they are at a mining investment conference next week and will be taking the pea.. also sounds like there is a lot of interest ( their words) coming from the investment community to get involved in this..

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 12:15

Like the comment that it's excellent, and maybe even better than expected... and seems confident that it's going to be bigger than they think , the 'pinch of salt' comment.

[qs99] 06/9/2019 12:11

good intel thanks

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 12:07

Online limits just dropped to around 1000 from 20,000 someone is loading here imo.

[meanreverter] 06/9/2019 12:01

Good interview:

[ih_140496] 06/9/2019 11:33

It’s still possible to go long with a spreadbet on IG, it’s a reasonable bid-offer range also

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 11:27

I wonder if bmnsa has got his freebies... talk about bad luck selling the day before the pea!

[ih_140496] 06/9/2019 11:27

I am the same littlepuppi7 , I wonder if there is a bigger player trying to accumulate It’ strange that the price has not taken off, but yet it might do soon!

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 11:15

Looking at the trades someone really dumped hard this morning... quite strange really ... had that not happened this would be over 90p now imo. Still cannot buy any..