Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/9/2019 08:38

For sure. I'm not concerned. The market gets things wrong all the time but it corrects eventually. Kenny you and know CEY went to 79p and then corrected to 150p in a few months. This will rise to 200p over the next 12 months.

[kennyp52] 06/9/2019 08:33

Market not yet reacted positively ? You reckon the type of mine Barrick buy Boris ?

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 08:32

I think it's highly likely but remember the share register. It would need to be a decent price.

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/9/2019 08:29

I'm worried they'll be acquired.

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/9/2019 08:24

This will finish very very blue

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/9/2019 08:23

Yes, couldn't agree more.

[qs99] 06/9/2019 08:21

given the underlying operations EBITDA numbers PLUS this report, I do think the Market cap looks very odd . DYOR

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 08:21

Be careful what you wish for - only had to wait 20 minutes!

[cinoib] 06/9/2019 08:17

Well I did say never say never and there we have it. With gold on the downtrend again, hasn't done much for the share price I think we could see it back in the 70's before gold rebounds so will sit and wait and watch.

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 08:17

Crazy buying op..

[ironstorm] 06/9/2019 08:14

What a fantastic and detailed RNS. Provides confidence going forward.

Let’s look to get this competitively debt financed soon and get motoring. 2020 is not far off.

This time next year . . . . As Del Boy might have said.

[qs99] 06/9/2019 08:14

am in for some more, NPV on base case looks attractive, POG IMO isn't going too far South anytime soon, (that's it jinxed I am sure haha), and underlying operations still doing well. Add in resource extension to this and NPV could be heading north of $100m IMO....DYOR....debt funding talk also good to ensure min or no dilution to shareholders

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/9/2019 08:13

Assuming production starts in 2 years this could give 25% of FCF as div which would equate to approx 25% dividend at today's price. This is a serious misnomer.

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 08:00

That's standardised risk accounting. You see it everywhere.. it's like saying if you don't pay your mortgage your house may be at risk..

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 08:00

Hi 74tom,Good to see some balance on the BB. As I mentioned back in June, MH has said that permitting is the biggest challenge with Coringa going forward; however, I hope SRB have now built a good relationship and track-record with the authorities that can smooth the path, and now have a Brazilian COO too..I believe PPVN mentioned recently that Sao Chico is still operating under a restricted trial licence? Any more info why?.Regarding timing IMO SRB have been pretty reasonable, but not spot-on. They are inevitably a small band - (eg I believe a key player was unexpectedly hospitalised which caused the first PEA delay). The capex curve clearly will be a trade-off of organic cash generation vs debt. IMO they will have to see the terms of the loan offers before finalising their plans..Lots to look out for, tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/9/2019 07:50

My figures are very conservative as all of there's are. Their AISC is very low and has 20% contingency. They also believe they can bring production forward plus the 9-10 years is worst case, which is impossible to actually be the case. This is a massive company in the making 80,000 a year with AISC average just above $900. What a money printing press. With PE of 10 this could have MCAP of US$500M easily.

[74tom] 06/9/2019 07:42

The economics look very positive, as you would expect in the current gold environment. However, the RNS doesn’t remove all uncertainty at all IMO, as the permitting situation is very unclear;


Firstly;

“The Directors believe that the PEA results fully support their intention to develop a high grade, underground mining operation and the Board intends to assess the financing options available and complete the permitting and licencing processes necessary for development of the Project. The Board expects based on the current expected time-line for the award of licences, that construction could be commenced at the end of the second quarter of 2020, with first gold production being achieved approximately nine months later.”

So in a best case scenario first gold is April 2021, but this won’t be at full production of 38k Oz initially.

However, the uncertainty re. Licenses is highlighted in the below section;


“On 14 August 2017, Anfield Gold Corp (“Anfield̶1;), the previous owners of Coringa, announced that it had received key permits required to commence construction of the Coringa project, being (1) the license of operation for exploration and trial mining, (2) the vegetation suppression permit and (3) fauna capture permit, all issued by the SEMAS. The SEMAS permits contain a list of conditions for the conservation and protection of fauna and flora.

In May 2018 trial mining licences for each of the concessions 850568/1990 and 850567/199, valid until 25 May 2020 and 25 November 2020 respectively, were issued by the DNPM permitting the commencement of mine development and limited mining production from Coringa. The trial mining licenses and the concurrent operating licence authorises mining of up to 50,000 tonnes of gold bearing mineralisation per year at Coringa. In the absence of the necessary processing permits, any gold bearing mineralisation recovered at this stage will be stockpiled for future processing. Under applicable regulations, once the mine is operational, Chapleau Exploracao Mineral Ltda (“Chapleau Brazil”) may apply to the DNPM and SEMAS to increase the mining and processing limits.”

So the trail mining license expire next year?

In summary, economic certainty around NPV & IRR has been confirmed

However, licensing timing and financing appear to be the main issues and there is no certainty everything will run on time. It may be a negative view, but if they delivered the PEA one week late, after already delaying it by a month, what chance is there of them hitting their April 2021 target for first gold? I would say fairly slim...

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 07:38

Agree both.. it's taken the uncertainty back and shows all the numbers. It's a great story. Deffo gap up.. did someone sell out yesterday? Could be interesting today! Looks like a very bad call there!

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 07:35

IMO just what we asked for! Capital as expected and debt financed (several parties interested); ramp-up tailored to match financing capacity. IMO a Blue day ahead - beware a gap-up?!

[borisjohnsonshair] 06/9/2019 07:35

It's added around US$113,000,000 to the MCAP as it's FCF is circa US130,000,000 over 9 years less cost of financing mine cost of US$22,000,000.This wasn't priced in. The existing MCAP should be higher circa US$60M, I consider this should be valued 200-300% higher. Let's see.

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 07:31

Confirmation initial capital requirements minimised. Well done serabi. Also done with a gold price almost 250 lower than current level it looks a great investment... We have, for the purpose of this study, prioritised minimising the initial capital requirements of the Project, but this does result in slower rates of production initially and a longer ramp up period. Over the coming months we will be looking to optimise the mine plan to achieve full production rates quicker without any significant change in the overall capital requirement.

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 07:13

You better be quick au... that rns removes all uncertainty now and shows what an excellent asset we have on our hands here.. should be a very good day.

[littlepuppi7] 06/9/2019 07:07

It's out! And just checking highlights it looks like we hit the jackpot here.. also no mention of dilution to fund building it!! Looks like debt will be the method.. excellent

[stu31] 06/9/2019 04:06

good choice au, bit lower perhaps

[au24] 05/9/2019 23:01

Time to load the wagon with serabi stock.