Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[rajaster] 16/4/2015 09:49

those big chunks yesterday were well under the radar.. but i think sometimes its better under the radar.. stay away from pump and dumpers.

[bsg] 16/4/2015 09:33

Surprisingly little interest here ...

[rajaster] 16/4/2015 08:56

any comments on todays rns?
showing sao chico on schedule for mining licence. and ore is being stockpiled

[rajaster] 15/4/2015 16:24

some massive buys in the last few days including one this morning at 500k shares for 4.4p.. 22k and quite a few large chunks. all being displayed as sells. i made a dummy order this morning and was qouted 4.37. so 4.4 is not bad.. question is who's selling to the buyer?

[kinloch] 08/4/2015 20:50

Sorry about the stutter but you get the message.

[kinloch] 08/4/2015 20:05

Good article on Serabi on the share of the day website.

[kinloch] 08/4/2015 20:05

Good article on Serabi on the share of the day website.

[kinloch] 08/4/2015 20:05

Good article on Serabi on the share of the day website.

[tightfist] 31/3/2015 09:03

Yes, good work indeed! A little more Sao Chico info in this latest interview, (the audio quality is not wonderful):

hxxp://brrmedia.co.uk/event/137020?popup=true

Mike raises the prospect of Sao Chico being 25,000 Oz, maybe more, and confirms the low incremental cost scenario. I also particularly liked this from the Chairman's report:

"....much of the capital requirements for Sao Chico being incurred in the first half of 2015, we are expecting to be producing positive cash flow which will allow us to retire our current debt arrangements and start to look for new growth opportunities both organically and potentially through acquisition."

[kinloch] 31/3/2015 07:14

Good work by the team over the period and more to come.

[tightfist] 30/3/2015 23:35

Kinloch,

Thanks for signposting the latest brr update. I didn't spot a lot of new information, but the increasingly positive view on Sao Chico potential is notable, as is the intrigue about people wanting to talk - one wonders if there are regional consolidation opportunities on offer?

[cotton4] 30/3/2015 13:51

Encouraging update:
2500-3000 ounces per month
Sao Chico bigger and easier to mine than first thought.
Interesting that we are cash positive.

[kinloch] 27/3/2015 20:26

New operational up-date on the Serabi website at least the line of communication has been greatly improved.

[tightfist] 19/3/2015 10:50

Hi Chip,

Good to see you on-board. If you havn't already done so, the latest two webcasts on the company site are well worth viewing, if only to sense Mike Hodgson's style (what a comparison with PHB...).

The numbers for Palito as a standalone should be good - and improving in H1 as they work there way through the surface stockpile - the comment about 2,500 Oz pm over the last 6 months was spot-on my best case.

The overlay of developing Sao Chico potentially complicates financial reporting this year, and I hope that Hodgson ensures clarity. Commencing small-scale production from Sao Chico ore is ahead of my expectations. Although there are no numbers for Sao Chico I wonder how little it should cost to mine and truck 170 tpd from "a small operation" to process 2,000 Oz pm at Pallito at a presumed head grade of 15g/t. I suspect the exploration costs could be greater than the Sao Chico operating costs?

He seems confident about continuing the Sao Chico development AND paying-down the Sprott loan - it's tempting to try a cashflow projection. I do just wonder if they delayed the imminent Sao Chico step-out drilling campaign to manage their cashflow.

Cheers,

[chipperfrd] 18/3/2015 15:04

tightfist,

Just to let you know. I decided to dip my toes in here based on what look like promising forward risk/reward factors.

Bit early to come up with hard numbers because we are yet to see the full year financials but it would be surprising if they were not reasonably good based on production in the latter quarters.

I will review my holding position once the complete picture emerges and whether forward guidance is as positive and credible as I would like to see.

All the best
Chip

[tightfist] 17/3/2015 10:15

Hi Rame,

Thanks for the pointers to the two webcasts, quite reassuring that SRB are on track; Pallito production stated at annualised 30kOz with 0.75/1$m post tax positive cashflow (is this sustainable after the stockpile is exhausted?) and especially the continuing positive positioning of Sao Chico. The Real weakness and likely margin of $300-$400/Oz are points well made. It is said that they still intend fully paying down the Sprott loan this year, so is cashflow sufficient to repay the loan AND fund Sao Chico drilling AND Sao Chico start-up? That sounds a big ask!


Cotton,

Your key milestones are good, but I think your timing is optimistic. In particular the Sao Chico drilling is still only just about get underway ("the next two weeks") which is disappointing, so the resource update is now slipped into Q3. Declaration of commercial production from Sao Chico in Q4 sounds good, presumably the licence bureaucracy will have been surmounted and there will be the high-class problem of what to do with all that cashflow.......

[spiker4] 17/3/2015 09:19

Tightfist - thanks for the explanation.

[cotton4] 17/3/2015 08:44

Expecting several positive announcements over the next 3 months;
Results 2014 possibly next week.
Mining licence for Sa Chico.
Quarterly report early April
Result of drilling campaign.

[kinloch] 16/3/2015 19:51

Thanks for that Rame4 good to have you around.

[rame4] 16/3/2015 16:48

Go to the Serabi site for the latest webcast. Very encouraging. Could do with waiting for any news updates until after April 6 though.

[kinloch] 16/3/2015 10:26

Should be due an update here soon Rame can you say what your last message contained as im unable to got info from that site.

[rame4] 13/3/2015 17:03

hxxp://bcove.me/pvz0hp4g

[tightfist] 11/3/2015 18:01

Hi Spiker4,

I only have regular public access to the historic RNS’s to try and deduce what is going on with the ex-Kenai shareholders. Looking more deeply at the last Annual Reports and the RNS’s (especially 19th July 2013 Kenai and subsequent holdings) it looks like this - Of the 95.1m shares issued to Kenai holders:

5.6m went to Daniel Kunz (NEDirector, ex-Chairman of Kenai)
17.1m went to Gold Anomalies
12.7m most likely went to Eldorado Gold (but not certain)
59.7m or 12.8% at the time went to undeclared Serabi holders who should individually hold <3%


According to Yahoo! the daily volume over the last 3 months (reducing over the last 20 months) on LSE is 231k and Toronto is 48k. So…. If a quarter of the shares being sold are sourced from ex-Kenai holders (excluding Kunz, who thankfully sold to Fratelli) it will take 426 days or 20 months to clear the overhang if they all want out. That 20 months expires next week…… If there are a lot of other sellers apart from ex-Kenai, the overhang could be around for a long time yet.

So we need some really good news to either substantially increase Buying volume, or convince the ex-Kenal people that their shares are worth more than 6p.

[Digging deeper I find that Fondo Santo Monico (a company tied to Nicolas Banados) is actually a “Concert Party” of Fratelli, so it is very unlikely that they are the seller].

All in my opinion and I hope that makes sense. Cheers,
(Edited to rectify the maths....)

[spiker4] 04/3/2015 20:21

Tightfist - I would be grateful if you could please tell me where you can find this holdings disclosure.

Many Thanks

[tightfist] 04/3/2015 14:49

Kinloch,

It feels as though there has been an overhang for many many months, attributed on this BB to the vendors of Sao Chico - Kenai Resources - which I believe was an all-paper deal. It seemed at one time as though there was a bottomless pit of share supply at 5p, but maybe that has now dropped around 4.5p?

Looking for holdings disclosures, the last I can see (apart from the NED sale/Fratelli buy in June 2014) is a 4% > 3% threshold disclosure by Fondo de Inversion Privado Santo Monico on 7th March 2014, which looks to be a Mexican investment broker. Just maybe the Kenai people are their clients?

Either way, I wish the seller would go away!


Rajaster,

I too have been roasted by some AIM Miners, and very wary. However, this one is already generating cash, and expanding production, is working-up some promising resources, and has a solid communicative CEO (IMHO) so on SRB I sleep easy! (Unless that seller knows more than we do....)