Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[rame4] 16/3/2015 16:48

Go to the Serabi site for the latest webcast. Very encouraging. Could do with waiting for any news updates until after April 6 though.

[kinloch] 16/3/2015 10:26

Should be due an update here soon Rame can you say what your last message contained as im unable to got info from that site.

[rame4] 13/3/2015 17:03

hxxp://bcove.me/pvz0hp4g

[tightfist] 11/3/2015 18:01

Hi Spiker4,

I only have regular public access to the historic RNS’s to try and deduce what is going on with the ex-Kenai shareholders. Looking more deeply at the last Annual Reports and the RNS’s (especially 19th July 2013 Kenai and subsequent holdings) it looks like this - Of the 95.1m shares issued to Kenai holders:

5.6m went to Daniel Kunz (NEDirector, ex-Chairman of Kenai)
17.1m went to Gold Anomalies
12.7m most likely went to Eldorado Gold (but not certain)
59.7m or 12.8% at the time went to undeclared Serabi holders who should individually hold <3%


According to Yahoo! the daily volume over the last 3 months (reducing over the last 20 months) on LSE is 231k and Toronto is 48k. So…. If a quarter of the shares being sold are sourced from ex-Kenai holders (excluding Kunz, who thankfully sold to Fratelli) it will take 426 days or 20 months to clear the overhang if they all want out. That 20 months expires next week…… If there are a lot of other sellers apart from ex-Kenai, the overhang could be around for a long time yet.

So we need some really good news to either substantially increase Buying volume, or convince the ex-Kenal people that their shares are worth more than 6p.

[Digging deeper I find that Fondo Santo Monico (a company tied to Nicolas Banados) is actually a “Concert Party” of Fratelli, so it is very unlikely that they are the seller].

All in my opinion and I hope that makes sense. Cheers,
(Edited to rectify the maths....)

[spiker4] 04/3/2015 20:21

Tightfist - I would be grateful if you could please tell me where you can find this holdings disclosure.

Many Thanks

[tightfist] 04/3/2015 14:49

Kinloch,

It feels as though there has been an overhang for many many months, attributed on this BB to the vendors of Sao Chico - Kenai Resources - which I believe was an all-paper deal. It seemed at one time as though there was a bottomless pit of share supply at 5p, but maybe that has now dropped around 4.5p?

Looking for holdings disclosures, the last I can see (apart from the NED sale/Fratelli buy in June 2014) is a 4% > 3% threshold disclosure by Fondo de Inversion Privado Santo Monico on 7th March 2014, which looks to be a Mexican investment broker. Just maybe the Kenai people are their clients?

Either way, I wish the seller would go away!


Rajaster,

I too have been roasted by some AIM Miners, and very wary. However, this one is already generating cash, and expanding production, is working-up some promising resources, and has a solid communicative CEO (IMHO) so on SRB I sleep easy! (Unless that seller knows more than we do....)

[rajaster] 04/3/2015 14:25

some definite stake building going on here.. i wonder if fratelli are buying more.

[kinloch] 04/3/2015 13:58

The buyer continues another half million this morning but the price stays the same funny old game.

[rajaster] 04/3/2015 13:11

thanks for responding. i think there's a number of issues calling the drop in price.. I've noticed lower highs for the last 3 years in almost all aim miners. the sentiment and bearish outlook hasn't disappeared yet and valuations are not bearing correctly. the good thing is if there is a change of sentiment favoring gold again we could see a really good rerating. but for the moment i'm slightly worried that this may continue downhill and as i hold with a higher average it may not have been a wise decision to hold on.

[tightfist] 03/3/2015 13:20

Hi Rajester,

Sorry, only just seen your post. What I meant was that I think SRB is going to do rather well. The obvious unanswerable question is funding requirement and sourcing for Sao Chico mining and trucking operation.

The grades we have seen so far look exciting. Never thought we would see 4.5p again - impatient investors around? Except Kinloch's Buyer?

[kinloch] 03/3/2015 12:48

Looks like a byer about dealing in fair size trades been going on for a while looks like share price being held back for these trades.

[rajaster] 14/2/2015 09:01

Not sure of you mean the writings on the wall because the share price isnt performing or are you saying that because you think the share price is going to do well?

[tightfist] 13/2/2015 19:28

Rajaster,

Not sure it's that brave - for me, the writing is already on the wall, or in this case on the vein!

[rajaster] 13/2/2015 14:01

someones just taken 500k shares at a cost of 25k here.. now thats confidence

[tightfist] 29/1/2015 13:50

Hi Selwyn,

I agree - with all your points of view! One gets the solid impression from Hodgson (based on circumstantial evidence) that there is a lot of mineable gold in the ground at Sao Chico and at very high grades. However, I am disappointed that the surface drilling contract is not already signed and underway. Maybe they want to direct the drilling based on their findings during the development drive?. Meanwhile we have to wait patiently for the resource statement in late Q2.

Based on the current fairly scanty info, one can envisage something like 20 years LoM at 3,000t/mth Sao Chico ore delivering 2,000 Oz/mth Au fitting within the commissioned Palito process capacity.

Hodgson’s prolific brr.media despatches are fine for PI’s who are prepared to do some subsequent digging/interpretation, but may not suit even the most dedicated minnow-chaser in the City.

ShareScope and Morningstar (from one analyst) both give a prospective eps of 1.34p for this year – in the last month that has risen from 0.17p. That is possibly based upon 6,000 Oz this year from Sao Chico, so we know there is potentially ~19,000 Oz upside from there in 2016, provided all goes to plan.

Analysts at Peel Hunt LLP and Sanlam Securities UK Limited are listed on the Serabi website. A prospective year-end PPER of 4 looks pretty miserly, notwithstanding the Sao Chico upside! To light the bonfire we need more coverage/promotion from “Blytheweigh PR” (never come across them before).

[selwynslacker] 29/1/2015 09:00

The potential here is starting to become apparent - the interview is understated (I do like Mike Hodgson's presentation skills) but if they get a substantial resource >0.5 m ounces over a longer time period (a couple of years out perhaps) at Sao Chico, then it could be one of the highest grade producing mines in the world?

[edit] I see I have driven the price down with my positive comment, I will keep quiet and check back in the Autumn!

[tightfist] 28/1/2015 21:33

Spiker, Rame,

Here is a new brr media interview this afternoon, it goes some way to answering the earlier question from Spiker:



After 4:40 timing Mike Hodgson suggests that Sao Chico (ore) production could slightly exceed Palito, which is running at ~25,000 Oz pa.

One would think that even if the 2011 drill grades and today's grade are only partially reflected in production ore head grade, we could be looking really low cost incremental production, especially when a lot of the process plant/costs are already in place; once the Palito surface stockpile is cleared it looks as though there will be proven process capacity for about 3,000t/month of non-Palito ore which could potentially deliver that outcome. Obviously there are trucking costs to Palito to bear. Interesting!!

[jeffcranbounre] 28/1/2015 18:23

Serabi Mining is featured in today's ADVFN podcast.

To listen click here>

In today's podcast:

- Simon Wajcenberg from K1T Capital markets says, according to his quant models, the markets are going to crash.

Simon on Twitter is @k1tCapital

- The micro and macro news

- Plus the broker forecasts

 

Every Tuesday is Ten Bagger Tuesday on the podcast. If you know of a stock, whose share price has the potential to increase ten fold, just click the link below.



(All it involves is filling out a form that will take you around 5 minutes and you don't personally appear on the podcast).

Once a week, on a Friday, I feature a tip from a listener to this podcast, if you'd like to suggest a stock click the link below:



(Again all it involves is filling out a form that will take you around 5 minutes and you don't personally appear on the podcast).

You can subscribe to this podcast in iTunes by clicking

To follow me on Twitter click

As a listener to the ADVFN podcast you can take advantage of some exclusive first year discounts on popular subscriptions:

Bronze - £50 (normally £73.82/year)
Silver - £145 (normally £173.71/year)
Level 2 - £350 (normally £472.94/year)

Call 0207 0700 961 and ask for the ADVFN Podcast discount to take advantage of these reduced rates or just for more information.

Please DO NOT buy any stock recommended in this podcast basely solely on what you hear. The opinions in this podcasts are just that, opinions. Please do you own research before investing.

Justin

 

 

[tightfist] 28/1/2015 15:14

Spiker,

It's well worth going back to re-read the 2013 AR dated 28th March 2014. At that time the Palito resource Measured, Indicated and Inferred contained gold totals 599kOz plus copper credits. If it is all economically realisable that suggests a very long mine life. Other nearby potential deposits are acknowledged.

Sao Chico hosts a stated Measured, Indicated and Inferred resource of just 97kOz (at around 27g/t) over a 150m strike. However, the known strike length was subsequently increased to over 350m (see 9th September 2013 announcement) yet remaining open to both East and West. On 5th Feb 2014 it was suggested that the Main Vein and the new Highway Vein could represent over 700m combined strike length.
The recent announcement (20th January) notes that three additional underground mineable veins have already been discovered; "there appears considerable opportunity for increased levels of ore development.....".

I am not bold enough to put numbers to that on a public forum, but if the combined main strike length is potentially increased by a factor of 5 and there are multiple mineable parallel veins that's good enough for me at this stage. It sounds pretty exciting IMHO, pending the company's imminent surface drilling programme and resource statement.
Others on this Board may be more in-depth followers of recent drilling and resource numbers, particularly at Palito.

[spiker4] 28/1/2015 13:12

Can anyone estimate roughly how much ounces of gold is likely to be in the underground both in Sao Chico and Palito put together? Based on previous resource estimates and the forthcoming estimate in Q2.

[rame4] 28/1/2015 13:05

Either way it's great to be in and able to add whilst gold is finding a path and Serabi are releasing exceptional progress news.

[tightfist] 28/1/2015 10:01

Rame,I wonder how far they need to get with the complex Permitting process and the new surface drilling campaign before they could come back to the market for funding?Or could they more pragmatically extend the terms of the Sprott loan? And/or convert that loan into Convertibles such that Sprott then becomes more of a partner? I know little about Sprott; would they play with a minnow like SRB, unless there were some bigger aims?

[rame4] 28/1/2015 09:37

Needless to say watch the price of gold - if that moonshoots, which is likely sooner rather than later, then investors in companies like SRB will be very well rewarded. I am fully expecting Serabi to come to the market for more funds to develop Sao Chico soon. These results are very exciting indeed!

[tightfist] 28/1/2015 08:03

6.8p quoted to Buy at 8am - Nothing Done!!

[carolj] 28/1/2015 07:57

crossed fingers!!!