Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tiger60] 02/7/2020 08:43

I don't think it can be deduced by a pro rata approach. From memory PNL was $0.77m for the quarter (they will have added unsold inventory from QTr1 in Qtr2 which will help) but believe heading for a loss. They should remain cash flow positive as depreciation, tax etc is added back on to work out operating activities, investing activities and financing activities.

With zero debt in Qtr 3 (Qtr 4 expect new debt facility or placing) the figures should look better. I have always said the macro level environment is great but SRB have to ride the wave asap. The counter argument is that compared to some valuations accredited to some producers and a lot of explorers this is cheap but it fails to engender investor interest. You take your chances and go with your convictions. Only time will tell.

[borisjohnsonshair] 02/7/2020 08:30

So it'll be US$1,409. We know at the end of May their cash hadn't reduced from US$9m but debt had been paid off. They are making money, not a lot but more than enough to cover the draw down of the Coringa money to Exquinox.

[tiger60] 02/7/2020 08:20

Wasn't qtr 1 9,020 oz at 1250? 8,000 will look very different. There is a big difference between EBITDA and PNL.

In their favour they won’t have the extra cost of mill repairs encountered in Q1 but it is hard to factor that in as no details were given as to cost.

[borisjohnsonshair] 02/7/2020 08:19

The ASIC has risen to US$1250 @ 8,000 / quarter, so they are still very profitable with the PoG as it is.

[tiger60] 02/7/2020 08:14

Exactly what I am trying to do. Completely honest. I personally think that 8,000 oz production will lead to negative pnl which will cause a fall back. If it does not then fair play and I will reassess. I don't see the issue with having a contrarian view. Do you want cheerleaders or open debate?

So you want to give you insightful thoughts?

[backinblack80] 01/7/2020 23:57

tiger60, sells out mid June and hopes to buy back cheaper at the end of summer...just saying....

[tiger60] 01/7/2020 14:16

I don't think they will be ahead if SRB hit two consecutive quarters of 8,000. At some point exploration and related tasks need to restart. The move to a 80,000 - 100,000oz seems to be delayed maybe up to a year (2022?) Think they need to partner up and drive forward opportunities on their own patch.

[tightfist] 01/7/2020 12:14

Hi tiger60,.Yes, the original plan was to take on-board fresh debt in Q4 2020 to fund the mine M&E capex investment. However, IIRC MH recently noted they were ahead of plan on cash holding, hence presumably cash generation? The PoG rise having offset reduced production, whilst the Brasilian government pays its part too - at least for the time being. And the weakness of the BRL reducing $ costs..How it all works out on the pace of Coringa M&E expenditure versus organic cash generation? We'll have to wait and see..... There is always the CLN's to fall back to - maybe I am thinking wishfully..Cheers, tightfist

[loganair] 01/7/2020 11:00

J.Hambro GFG Alliance - People need a solid currency = Gold with Copper and Iron Ore are the commodities to be in.

[ppvn] 01/7/2020 10:01

The money will out as they say

[tiger60] 01/7/2020 08:44

I look at other goldies and see huge rates of return but this is a producer with so much in its locker yet fails to garner any momentum. The illiquid nature should make it a natural winner in the race to find solace in gold but it is not happening

Yes it is hampered by Covid 19 but it seems the penny stocks attract the more speculative investors and thus create momentum. Mkt cap seems to mean nothing to some. Look at GGP it is a disaster waiting to happen but has shot up to 12p in a couple of months.

[kennyp52] 01/7/2020 08:31

License news needed ? $1800 POG breakthrough needed ? Luck needed ? New investors needed. SRB still not catching investors interest it seems ... next RNS may be the trigger ?

[tiger60] 01/7/2020 08:30

They will take on more debt if Coringa goes through. The question of Qtr2 and 3 production and subsequent AISC costs are a more immediate concern. 8,000 will lead to negative PNL if the last quarters figures are anything to go by.

Macro conditions great, potential great just need to lift prod up and cut the AISC costs lower than 1,000

[ppvn] 01/7/2020 08:30

Our profits much more than double bojo.

I initially bought into this share many moons ago because it was a high cost producer and so much more leveraged to the price of gold. When it was $1250 and our AISC was $1050 we were making $200/oz - we are doing nearly four times that now, and far more in local ccy terms.

The market will wake up to this one at some point - £50m cap with such outstanding exploration underway, expansion to 100k oz, gold price, etc etc.

Baffled its not significantly higher already but at least its meant I've had a chance to increase holdings here even more...

[borisjohnsonshair] 01/7/2020 08:25

Also, look at gold fly. Silly reports on gold going to US$5,000 to 10,000. Don't forget that if it goes to 3,000 our profits double

[borisjohnsonshair] 01/7/2020 08:24

They have US$9M in the bank, plus the balance will be less than US$12M. They can use the CL and save the cash to fund the development of the mine. No point in owning if they cant develop. The clock is ticking towards 100,000 ounces per years plus all the potential with the exploration

[borisjohnsonshair] 01/7/2020 08:22

Yes, due to be paid off by the end of June. I wonder if they will announce. Have they started paying down Equinox also - GBP500k per month ramping up to GBP1M, I believe.

[tiger60] 01/7/2020 08:19

How are they going to fund Coringa scheduled for end of year?

[tightfist] 01/7/2020 07:46

Put the bunting out, let's celebrate, this should be our long-awaited first day as a DEBT-FREE company!.Looking forward to the H1 production results and cash management within the financials - as we work our way through the Coringa final staged payments......Molto cheers, tightfist

[sherry35] 30/6/2020 23:43

BJH - Please do us the honours on the Sprott thingy.

[borisjohnsonshair] 30/6/2020 15:26

Yes and license news. Any day now - Q2 which ends today ...... fingers crossed. That clears the way to double output - 80,000 ounces a year.