Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/6/2020 11:24

Nice bargains galore. Brazil infections dropping significantly and recoveries exceeding, so active cases reducing. Bizarre that global infections Co timid to rise but deaths dropping fast. Not the chart shapes at the start but consistent with suppressed reports that it's mutated many times and is weaker each time. Clowns in UK don't want schools to open or people from Germany, New Zealand and S Korea to come spend money. SRB bounce when shut down risk subsides will be above 100p, then license news, then big deal for farm in. 300-500p....

[tiger60] 09/6/2020 09:27

Apologies I am not close to that, although I have seen a lot of sector downgrades which implies trouble ahead. These times require active portfolio management away from established industries.

I must admit I haven't profited much from the rebound although I also didn't lose anything on the way down. SIPP up, ISA standing still.

I will breathe a bit easier here if I could get any insight into the May production figures and the route to market is functioning.

Good Luck - tempted to play the indices as looking toppy but follow the trend is winning out at the moment

[tightfist] 09/6/2020 08:30

Hi tiger,.OT: Away from Serabi (and other goldies) have you noticed any widespread Analyst downgrading of forecasts last week? One Screen I regularly run identified 40 companies on 1st June - it was down to just 20 companies on 6th June. FPE's getting stretched..A sign of things to come? tightfist

[tightfist] 09/6/2020 08:23

Hi Sherry,Thankfully there is a lot more attraction to Serabi than the universal PoG (in $ or investing sentiment). For me this is the investing business case - IMO a powerful combination of factors, some will come home sooner than others. tightfist

[tiger60] 09/6/2020 08:22

Well if the Fed raise rates and strengthen the dollar that would normally be a drag on the gold price.

I personally think you have called the V shaped recovery too soon. We have seen the Fed rip up the rule book to placate a President determined to get re elected with complete disregard for what happens post November. With so much money washing around, 0% loans and corporate debt secured by states it is no wonder they are looking for returns in the equity market. But it is a false dawn, once the euphoria of our exit from lockdown subsides then the economic reckoning will begin with the reporting of Q2 numbers and Qtr3 and 4 will not in any way be comparable to the prior year.

43% of people responding to a survey in the UK who took out business loans stated they thought they would either fail to pay them back or expected the Govt to write it off. Bad debt, out of control monetary policy and rebounding equity markets based on nothing but a lack of alternatives will result in consequences.

Let this month roll. It is not the macro environment that is worrying but the micro level.

[sherry35] 08/6/2020 22:44

I suspect I'm on the wrong side of this trade for another two years. Until the FED starts raising rates to cool down the economy, I see Au retreating into the low $1600s. With the US election coming in approx. 6 months, Trump will want to keep the rates at zero (or close to zero).

The CDC keeps lowering the mortality rate which should take pressure of the travel industry coming into that blistery cold winter season. With short attention spans and the need to go some place warm/hot, the air line industry and aerospace manufacturers will recover sooner than predicted.

With SP500 180 points from its peak, I predict SP500 making new all time highs in the next 6 to 10 months. The FED will start raising rates next year, in a more aggressive manner. At the same time, it will unwind it's recent purchases of assets.

Trump has skirted the on-coming recession by injecting money into it at a unprecedented rate. Most recession recoveries take 12 to 18 months. Trump nipped this one in bud very quickly - and V-shape recovery to boot.

Au is retreating into the low $1600 US Oz. It will start heading higher as FED starts raising rates.

[borisjohnsonshair] 08/6/2020 09:25

I know the impatient people lose money, like the losers selling SRB today, however, it's boring while waiting to be hugely rewarded. As Brazil gets Covid under control, or rather, it runs its course, SRB will be a straight linen to Coringa development plus MEGA deal and partner for open pit mine.

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/6/2020 13:17

.....so what

[tightfist] 04/6/2020 16:46

Hi Sherry,.IIRC MH recently (ie this year) mentioned that they had applied for some (SC?) mine extension permits. I got the impression that the other party was purely the Para State. If you dig around you may find something more; maybe ANO on this BB knows more about mineral rights licensing in Brasil. It would certainly be towards the top of a major's checklist! .Regarding my spreadsheet, PoG is the first variable. I am more concerned about excess costs/cash caused by COVID-19, elsewhere I have seen +10% incurred. And formulae/assumptions for the various timefences - particularly the International Travel resumption. Q1 AISC was rather off-putting, but IMO Bomber's assessment was in comparison rather half-full? Thought: Would it be simpler to perch on CL's shoulder?!.tightfist

[sherry35] 04/6/2020 16:17

BJH - Thank you for the catch. managing to many facts in my head. I quote from tightfist's post:

Maybe it would be helpful to take a look at my post #6349 regarding incoming chairman Nicholas Banad?s. According to the latest April 2020 AR he “had the following interests in the ordinary shares of the Company according to the register of Directors’ interests” of 1.12 million shares or 1.8% or ~£1m

I made the correction in post.

[sherry35] 04/6/2020 16:14

tightfist - I was wondering about the holders of the mineral permits surrounding the SRB PC. Does Brazil have a online exploration/mining permits database? I'm wondering if a major owns the permits south and west of the PC. This situation is similar to Rio Tinto acquiring MMG's permits south of MMA's properties.

[borisjohnsonshair] 04/6/2020 16:09

How do we / you know the chairman has 1.6M shares? That's a little under 3%. Was that mentioned?

[sherry35] 04/6/2020 16:04

Hi tightfist

I'm going to assume your analysis is done by spread sheet. Here is one suggestion. I would make the "unknowns", like monthly production and POG, variables that can be changed.

I stated a couple of times that the ore sorter would pickup the slack in maintaining a AU production of 10,500 oz. per quarter. I would take last years figures as baseline, and use a production growth range of -10% to 30% in 10% increments. This would allow you to plot a graph of production versus time. Just some suggestions.
.
I suspect the new chairman, given his 1.12M common share (tender) position, doesn't like the Greenstone CLN. Given his brief CV, I suspect he is working on a better arrangement.
.
Your idea of a combination of cash-flow sources is very interesting. The cash-flow being used for operations, exploration and Coringa commissioning. The sources would be:
1) Au production
2) earn-in
3) Greenstone CLN
4) private placement
5) gold loan
.
Look at MMA.VN's earn-in by a small unknown company called Rio Tinto. The same small explorer is running a small PP to cover expenses. I hope SRB can do a better deal than Hummingbird's.

[tightfist] 04/6/2020 08:59

OT: If you are looking for an interesting read on an Earn-In agreement, take a look at Hummingbird's announcement this morning re: Dugbe .

[tightfist] 03/6/2020 21:48

Hi Sherry,.Thanks. Of course, we/I may be guilty of extremely wishful thinking, but I think it is entirely possible (putting COVID to one side) that the fast-forward on exploration investment was intended to hopefully capture a farm-in agreement with a major - accompanied by up-front cash to fund the Coringa M&E, as you suggest..Now, IF the International Travel Embargo continues AND if gold production continues uninterrupted, the organic cash flow may be able to progressively fund the Equinox Final staged Payments? (The incoming chairman seems highly incentivised to minimise the issue of CLN's to Greenstone and subsequent dilution of his and Fratelli's holdings - I suppose MH and CL also benefit on their options values)..One wonders if organic cash flow could then follow-through to fund the Coringa M&E?. There are some signs that they are hoping to achieve a short-term increase in Palito production?.I started a simple cashflow to broadly check this hypothesis out - unfinished as of yet.... The extra costs and slowing of production arising from COVID-control are a significant unknown..A lot to go for! tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/6/2020 16:24

Living the dream!!!!

[sherry35] 03/6/2020 16:10

tightfist - Is it possible that SRB is waiting on the closure of a "earn-in" agreement with a major, and then use the "earn-in" payments to cover all or some of the Coringa commissioning costs?

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/6/2020 13:14

Sorry - I DONT disagree with your message

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/6/2020 13:14

Tightfist I disagree with anything you've said but the status has changed. Debt gone and more money in the bank. If we don't shut down (still very possible) we will need much less money when the option to take the CL kicks in, as the outstanding payment to Equinox will have been partially paid off.

[tightfist] 03/6/2020 12:51

On re-reading the 24th April RNS, The phrase "trussed-up like a chicken" comes to mind. Quite why MH is so effusive still baffles me, within a commercial world..Towards the bottom this phrase is incorporated "....In addition, the Company and its subsidiaries have contractually agreed, amongst other things, to limit their ability to incur other indebtedness, create security and deal with their assets......". .So what ongoing flexibility SRB have is debatable. I am still intrigued how this may play-out and what CLN's are eventually issued to Greenstone before 31.12.2020. I think the fact that Nicholas Bandanos takes over as chairman immediately after the AGM could be very helpful to ensure a balance of interests..Cheers, tightfist

[kennyp52] 03/6/2020 11:45

Or a placing rather than poor loan terms ?

[borisjohnsonshair] 03/6/2020 10:06

From where?