Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 16/1/2020 08:32

1000 to get it out the ground to market I mean

[borisjohnsonshair] 16/1/2020 05:56

The value is resource size, AISC and POGIf you have 100 ounces and it'll cost you $1000 / ounce to sell and you sell for $1500, you have a tangible asset of $50,000.If a mine has a LOM of 10 years and it's doubled with consistent output, POG and costs, it's value doubles.

[loganair] 15/1/2020 12:41

The price of gold in local BRLs is now only 20 BRLS from its all time high.

[loganair] 15/1/2020 10:21

The value of any commodity in the ground is dependent on whether the mine is in the Exploration stage when the value is at its least, Development stage or the commodity is actually being mined stage when the value is at its most.

[kennyp52] 15/1/2020 09:18

Had to check out of interest and came across this....

Based on 253 gold deposits acquired from 1990-2013, Cipher calculated a median benchmark value for an ounce of gold in the ground at about $40 and established that 80% of the ounces were valued at less than $90.

Given a POG of circa $1250 at the time of this valuation but the facts AISC will have increased I don’t think a minimum of $50 an ounce in the ground is unreasonable . Love to hear any other opinions on this .

[borisjohnsonshair] 15/1/2020 08:52

Thanks and I know it's a hypothetical illustration but the Coringa mine development is with existing and Q1-3 cash. Its the final stage (50%) payment for Coringa that finance is being arranged.

[kennyp52] 15/1/2020 08:51

Sherry35 . Have you factored in the delayed payment to Chapleau ? That uses up most of the cash resource . Also resource has a value if the drilling and reports can be relied on. I believe in the region of $35 an ounce un-mined ? Can’t remember where I got this from but presumably this is based on disposal to a willing miner ? Factor all that in and I wonder what MCAP you come to ? At this stage with SRB into production would dilution be preferable instead of expensive borrowing ?

[sherry35] 14/1/2020 22:47

Let's assume (no proof) that KL is entertaining the purchasing of SRB. The $25M US financing loan for the Coringa mine construction equates to 570,000 KL shares at $44US per share. This is peanuts given KL's revenue profile. They can easily absorb the dilution for 100K oz of additional production with 20 year LOM. Peanuts!!!!!

Don't worry about the financing - worry about the accurate assessment of the wealth in the ground. DRILL THE PERMITS!!!!

[sherry35] 14/1/2020 22:35

Perhaps knowing the wealth in the ground will leverage better terms with a financing loan for the Coringa project. SBI/SRB's book value is based on the Au Eq. in the ground (reserves), LOM and annual production (revenue). The last two are dependent on the reserves. No gold - no LOM, no revenue.

Based on the high institutional ownership, this company's primary exit strategy is to be bought out. So, what is the book value? Wealth in the ground? Worth of two turn key mills?

If SRB secures a $25M US loan to fully finance the Coringa mine construction, this equates to 16,700 Au Oz. at $1500 US/oz. This is easily paid down in the first two years of Coringa production.

The $14M US cash on hand can be used to:
1) expand and expedite the drill programs
2) contingency
3) loan payments

You want to be bought out at a fair price, drill all the permitted areas with favorable geo physics. This includes drilling a couple of deep 800 to 1200M holes using directional drilling. All indications to date is the grade increases with depth. The Cinderella formation is good candidate for this. Look at the Fosterville mine owned by Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. They use directional drilling at 1000M depths.

[kennyp52] 14/1/2020 20:20

Trader365 ... as a complete idiot you would not understand that sometimes buys show up as sells ... as in my toe in the water buys today . You need to stop stalking me and Boris you weirdo . One such buy of a few which showed up as a sell on HL ...

09:49:10 14-Jan-2020 80.08 GBX 1,550 1,241.24 Off-book AIMX

I told you FRES would go sub 600 .. guess you are deep under water there ? Hopefully some volume will start to push this up again . Looking to transfer in from other sales but they all took a drop today so patience is the game .

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/1/2020 14:32

Yep agreed. I have total faith.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/1/2020 14:31

Yep - exactly.

[ppvn] 14/1/2020 14:23

To be honest, I'm actually pretty confident that our BOD here will do a good job whatever path they choose to walk - not something that I'd say about any other of my AIM investments necessarily.

It does potentially seem to me that they are awaiting further exploration results before any financing decision is made? And if there is the possibility of a farm in for the larger exploration areas - could that be front-loaded with some cash? I dont know but I'm hopeful a decent result will come when its finally sorted. I wouldn't like to second guess what their options are but it would be nice if they opt for something cheaper than Sprott have been...

I may make the AGM this year; other commitments prevented me last year but as you know I've got a few of these tucked away so it'd probably be wise for me to do so!

[loganair] 14/1/2020 14:20

tight - By a possible Placement of further shares to pay the final Coringa payment to a single entity will reduce the Liquidity of SRB shares in issue which is exactly what MH does not want to see happen.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/1/2020 14:13

Depends on what they bring to table but ....

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/1/2020 14:12

Ummmmm I'm unsure. It would reduce retail holding %. I'd prefer dilution.

[tightfist] 14/1/2020 14:08

Hiya, I think the AGM comment fell under the category "many a true word spoken in jest". Because it gave a smidgen of insight into MH thinking; but his overall body-language excitement was unmistakable..(Other than the BoD) there were only three shareholders at last June's AGM; maybe this year it will be better supported? There's a lot to glean!.One aspect was the discussion between MH and the floor on a possible debt-for-equity deal to facilitate the final Coringa payment, be it Equinox or ANO Canadian entity. Personally, if someone useful came on-board at a good sp, I wouldn't view this as conventional dilution..Cheers, tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/1/2020 13:55

It's crazy a likely producer of 100,000 in less than 2 years, AISC of 900 and potentially larger output for US$55M. Any one wanna buy one pound sterling - costs 20p here!!!

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/1/2020 13:53

They are thinking beyond 100,000 for sure.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/1/2020 13:52

Much appreciated.

[chipperfrd] 14/1/2020 11:34

Thank you 'Bomber13', good post!

[trader365] 14/1/2020 11:29

17 sells v 1 buy. Clearly a case of buy the rumour sell the news. Mind the gap, doors opening

[ppvn] 14/1/2020 11:03

Hiya tightfist,

I'm with you on that. I think the medium term plan will be to get Coringa up and running, then open a new processing plant at Sao Chico. I seem to remember you mentioning that Mike said to you at the AGM that they should have built the plant there when they were looking to expand capacity - perhaps if they can get a significantly bigger resource there it will justify the additional plant.

[loganair] 14/1/2020 10:36

Yesterday the Price of Gold reached with in 0.5% of an all time high in local BRLS.

If I may remind those who may have forgotten that 80% of Serabi's expenditure is in local BRLS.

[tightfist] 14/1/2020 10:28

Hi; yes, it does make you think/speculate on why MH is heading pretty fast in the exploration and expansion direction when he/they already have plenty on their plate/to fund. .Given MH is IMO a pretty safe pair of hands, my speculation is that he wants to substantially enlarge the potential project in order to attract a farm-in major and eventually also install a larger processing plant at SC too, within a JV. Or maybe SC and it's environs gets sold-on?.I guess we will have to await H2 to read any more signals? Cheers, tightfist