Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[gregpeck7] 25/6/2019 12:20

Exactly. And in 18 months they are targeting 100,000.. what's that worth? And how much untapped potential in the ground?

[mick1909] 25/6/2019 11:09

If we produce 40,000 oz at 1000 dollars per ounce and have an average sale price 1500$ an ounce that's 20 million profit so the mcap should be north of 200mil $ which is £156 so I make that £2.40 a share 300% gain from here

[poieo] 25/6/2019 10:26

Thanks everyone for the insightful posts. I've been holding for about 18months and things are starting to look quite exciting!

[gregpeck7] 25/6/2019 09:50

MOD resources taken out today BTW... AUS offer accepted... Will we start seeing gold miners fall to cheap offers now?

[gregpeck7] 25/6/2019 09:46

Added 10,000 more this AM btw...

Gold price alone this is a stupid valuation.

[tightfist] 25/6/2019 09:42

Hi All,Yes, I too had wondered if the one month delay on the PEA was really awaiting increased Coringa resource news - and improved IRR.I guess the PEA may reveal the equipment aspect too, although the vein widths/structure seem to take a while underground to properly understand? I suppose in the early days they will be able to use any displaced larger equipment - and defer capex - all IMHO.Only five weeks to go! Maybe we will see an updated Coringa resource RNS beforehand? tightfist

[loganair] 25/6/2019 08:59

The longer and clearer the base then the rally which eventually follows that base will be considerable and gold formed a clearly defined multi-year base.

[gregpeck7] 25/6/2019 07:47

Gold doing its bit. Had a huge spike earlier but currently around 10 usd higher. Very much feel this is a run to over 1500. That would surely be transformational alone to srb's prospects and very much make finding Coringa from cashflow or competitive loan a reality. Coringa will delivers a huge uplift in production performance but I would prefer to not be diluted again. I could live with up to ten percent but would prefer nothing. What we also need to keep our eye on here is the gold we are not exploiting yet and the Cinderella shear. It looks like the current licenses are incredibly prospective and that is 100 percent not prices in.

[sherry35] 25/6/2019 04:43

Hi PPVN & tightfist - Thank you for your responses. Great dialogue. I overlooked the PEA that's to be released very soon. Hopefully this will have the details we're all looking for.

Interesting comment on "(they) shipped some of the older Palito equipment to Sao Chico but no real idea here I'm afraid." The 14 November 2018 PR (financials) indicated the purchasing of new generation equipment for narrow-width mining. MND "introduced our new generation ‘mini-scoops’, the first of which arrived on site during the second quarter. These, along with the use of narrow-width face drilling jumbos, are allowing us to advance much faster breaking a lot less rock in the process." PR further states purchasing "narrow profile mine haulage truck, which will allow the Company to reduce the dimensions of accesses to new areas".

The 14 November 2018 PR does not mention where the equipment has been deployed between the two operating mines. Subsequent PRs have not provided any updates on the cost effectiveness of the new equipment, or additional purchases. Based on some research, these narrow profile UG mining equipment have merit. Mining less rock at the start of the process reduces costs all the way through the entire process.

Perhaps someone in UK can kick the tires on this when speaking with IR or officer.

[ppvn] 24/6/2019 22:16

Hi tightfist,

The PEA is definitely going to shed a bit more light on this - they've obviously been trying to extend the resource base (hence the delay as well as last weeks announcement?) so I don't know what impact that could have on the overall resource base. The Anfield dollar costs as well as AISC were really impressive, hoping they can maintain that level.

Anyway, all will be revealed in good time I suppose!

[tightfist] 24/6/2019 20:47

Hi PPVN, I understand that within the Coringa acquisition cost from Anfield about $5m was for pre-owned equipment that was used previously in Australia and then shipped-in, I think by Anfield.Until we see the PEA I don't think we know how/how much SRB estimate they can reduce the Anfield capex - and the phasing of costs/cash flow to minimise funding whilst not being too close to the wire! PoG advance is welcome but can only go so far.....Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 24/6/2019 20:33

Hi Sherry, I anticipate that a lot will become clear with the PEA publication. It is already clear that two of the early major hurdles are the mining permit and the to-be "financing package" referred to in the AR; what that consists of, and how much, remains to be seen. Right now I see IMO some seemingly very optimistic assumptions being made on this BB; meanwhile PoG advance is most welcome and timely! tightfist

[ppvn] 24/6/2019 20:24

Evening Sherry,

Agree it would be useful to know how much Coringa will cost to get up and running, the Anfield PEA suggested $28mm but with the dry stacker and what Serabi have already spent there I don't know what further is required. Do they have plant they can relocate? Know that they shipped some of the older Palito equipment to Sao Chico but no real idea here I'm afraid.

What I do know though is that if gold stays or goes past $1400 and they manage to get their aisc to $900 (or $850 as i believe they were targeting?), serabi are going to be very close to self funding if they can do the 60k oz they have planned.

All speculation obviously but then that means they would be throwing off cash in 2021 with three mines I guess!

[gregpeck7] 24/6/2019 20:19

Gold just touched 1420 usd per ounce. 1500 coming imo.

[sherry35] 24/6/2019 18:02

I stand corrected. SBI has published a June 2019 Investor Presentation.



No "10,000 foot view" project plan of the Coringa mill commissioning in the investor package. I'm sure the institutions are getting different package to us.

[sherry35] 24/6/2019 17:53

PPVN - I agree with your post on the ore sorter and a 2021E of 100K oz Au per year. The ore sorter should boost the mill head grade by 40% to 50%. With the other two down stream mill enhancements in place, I predict 15K Au oz per quarter from the Palito mill starting 1Q2020. 4Q2019 should see some ramp up effect from the sorter.

Given the recent changes to tailings treatment at Coringa, I believe there will be some additional costs in bringing Coringa into production. It is unclear to to the legacy posters, including myself, if Coringa has all the necessary equip. and infrastructure to support production for 2H2020. SBI has not made that clear to any of us.

Given their hints about acquisitions in the proxy documents, something has to give in the form of financing either with cash, shares or loan. Given their grades, production ramp-up and robust POG, I don't foresee any issues in doing a PP or loan.

The concern I have is the existence of a clear "detailed" project plan to bring Coringa online. There is no 10,000 foot view project plan in the investor package aka Gnatt chart -> if they ever publish another one this year!!!

[ppvn] 24/6/2019 16:49

I think with luck that would be everyone's preference - I'm fairly agnostic between equity at a premium or Sprott though. I couldn't believe it when they extended their facility with them because it just seems so punitive (their rates and costs).

Anyway with luck they will have an increased access to debt facilities thanks to having two solid mines with good track records of production, and with it being used for capex at a third site they may be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat! Fingers crossed anyway.

[ironstorm] 24/6/2019 16:35

PPVN If they need more working capital - assuming they pay Coringa balance in cash - then it would be my preference for them to borrow the money.

The increased PoG should make it very attractive.

[ppvn] 24/6/2019 16:29

Hi Greg,

Further to post 2136, the same source now has a fairly clear run to $1,550 apparently pencilled in. If that materialises together with the Coringa PEA in July it'll be quite nice.

Still happy here, despite the rise still under £40mm market cap which doesn't feel expensive to me, but as ever that's my personal take.

[gregpeck7] 24/6/2019 16:22

Gold price having a nice jump. Up 14 now 1413.

[gregpeck7] 24/6/2019 12:13

Also not Logan on the same time period they have reduced their holdings in us denominated debt. So there is a fundamental switch occurring.

[loganair] 24/6/2019 11:56

In the first 5 months of this year, The People’s Bank of China has purchased more than 70 tons of gold, according to the World Gold Council (WGC) while Russia added 78 tons of gold to its reserves.

[ppvn] 24/6/2019 11:17

The total loan amount that Serabi have currently o/s (from working back to the beginning of the $8mm loan and adding interest payments then dividing by the repayment term of equal installments) would be $4.4mm at the start of June. They repay around $370k per month with the full balance repaid in June 2020.

I'm with you in thinking that they won't need to raise additional funds to repay the loan or the Coringa final payment, however working capital to bring Coringa online may be needed although they will be producing somewhere in the region of 55-60k oz next year thanks to the ore sorter (and we may see a little blip in q4 when it begins to be dialled in). The POG as well as having Coringa going live may open additional financing routes to them, aside from wonga *ahem sorry sprott* loans or equity.

It's going to be interesting here, the premise of them being a 100k producer seems within grasp, and that's quite a milestone for them. And that's completely excluding their very exciting exploration activities, which I'm personally even more focused on!

[loganair] 24/6/2019 10:19

I can see the EPS for this year being far higher then forecast with Serabi easily being able to afford to pay off threir loan without the need to do a share placing to raise the finances to do so.