Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 29/7/2019 08:02

Hi PPVN,Belated thanks for your post #2602, it's interesting to see how far away from conventional wisdom we are both prepared to diverge! Obviously one has to make a good fundamental call and then your point about patience is critical. There is another market wisdom (from Warren Buffett?) about backing your best ideas in size which I sense we both believe in. In this case it's PM's and then SRB.O/T: I am not prone to talking about other stocks but IMO it's worth looking at and understanding Phillipines gold miner MML quoted on ASX. I expect you are already aware of the Small Gold Miner thread/dataset where Chip has been a long term stalwart.All the best, tightfist

[gregpeck7] 27/7/2019 22:11

Pea this week or next. Should make stonking reading.

[loganair] 26/7/2019 08:56

Positive for the price of gold going forward:

Bank of Canada - Even with negative interest rates, will keep buying European bonds as long at there is ECB QE.

Even with such easy money around why is there such poor growth this time round??? This may be the longest growth cycle in history, how ever the actual growth has been less then 50% of a growth cycle that is 1/2 as long.

There is talk of the Euro zone going into recession when there is already negative interest rates.

[ppvn] 25/7/2019 18:04

So the ECB has given cause for DXY to rise.

Ball is in the FEDs court. Only question remains is will it be 25 or 50bp?

[loganair] 25/7/2019 13:05

Gold up:

1. ECB looking at new assets to buy.
2. ECB leaves interest rates unchanged at -0.4%.
3. Record new lows on German Bunds rates.

[ppvn] 25/7/2019 13:01

Trump isn't going to like that, is he.

Oh dear. Haven't the talking heads made quite the pickle for themselves with all this loose monetary policy.

[gregpeck7] 25/7/2019 13:00

ECB saying money printing, let's call it what it is will likely restart in September. Gold should fly now

[ppvn] 25/7/2019 12:33

People say that don't they - but why did it go on a bull run for ten years after 2002 if that is really the driver?

What has caused it to rise from $1200 more recently too?

Inflation is less than half the story imo.

[loganair] 25/7/2019 12:20

I understand the price of gold is driven by the difference in the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate to give a real interest rate.

[ppvn] 25/7/2019 12:02

Quite interesting isn't it. The real metric here though isn't imo the EUR - it's the DXY.

Gold is still up comfortably in the $1400s yet the DXY has gradually been grinding higher - in June the jump in gold was driven by DXY falling from 98 to 96 - throughout July this has climbed back up to 97.7 yet gold is still way up there. If Mario does his usual dove act it'll potentially drive DXY higher - but then the FED will presumably respond in kind next week.

Next move in gold imv will be driven by the dollar move rather than anything else. And if the fed do cut by 50bp gold will be well into the $1500s.

[gregpeck7] 25/7/2019 10:29

Gold moving up nicely... ECB could really make waves today.

Watch the price of gold at 1.45PM

[tightfist] 25/7/2019 06:36

Thanks for that slide 4 reminder, it looks as though PH have taken Coringa potential top-up out of next year's forecast - prudent?. Note: it's presented as a chart of production RATE not annual production - maybe we have to wait a little longer for that!?The uplift for 2020 is presumably the last half of the tailings/scrubber supplement plus the ongoing Ore Sorter enhancement.

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 23:40

Slide 4 is my personal fav Well worth a read if you have nothttps://www.serabigold.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Q1-Results-Corporate-presentation.pdf

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 23:29

Loved the comments as well about how there was a lot of interest in what srb are doing at the moment. They are not the types to make that up. All very interesting and positive.

[tightfist] 24/7/2019 22:15

Hi, Great to hear MH's upbeat brr views and see your thoughts. However I went to check the 2020 forecast and since 6th July it seems Peel Hunt have reduced revenue forecast from £90.9m to £67.2m (according to Stockopedia). This equates to 50kOz @$1,368 (which matches 2019). Any comments anyone?.May in part account for the recent share price pull-back? .Regarding Coringa capex, pending the PEA, it seems sensible to deduct the $5m (already paid to Anfield for the used equipment on-site) which suggests $23m remains; to which we must add the final payment of $12m. They indicated yesterday that they wish to resume drilling on chosen anomalies around Sao Chico, so there will be cost for that too. .Cash, organic cash generation and increased debt may close the gap - we will see. Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 24/7/2019 17:35

Just did a couple more (very brief and simplistic) sums further to the interview from yesterday.

If the ore sorter does get them to 60k oz next year and reduces costs to c.$950/oz, with the POG where it is that's nearly $30mm before costs/taxes etc.

I seem to remember that Coringa needed c. $28mm from the Anfield PEA (will be interesting to see required capex in the upcoming PEA) but having obviously spent a fair amount of cash on Coringa already this year it's pretty close to self sustaining in terms of funding. Perhaps they really can pull it off with a moderate amount of debt. That'd then leave them the following year when Coringa starts production in 2021 with a bit of debt but 100k oz with goodness knows what gold price and hopefully lower aisc.

We shall see.

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 10:27

Gold back over 1425...

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 09:06

Just added another 11,000 odd...

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 01:04

Only just finished work and taken the time to listen. Excellent piece. We are so cheap it is ridiculous. Once we can break 60p resistance there will be no stopping serabi. Well done mike and the team.

[ppvn] 23/7/2019 22:51

It does certainly sound that way from the interview doesn't it. Think the decent gold price has meant that they've been able to maintain their cash position despite paying for the ore sorter, work at Coringa, all the development of Palito and Sao Chico etc.

You never know until the fat lady sings, but sounding promising.

[ironstorm] 23/7/2019 19:40

Sounds like good news on financing. No dilution looks like the default option now. Fantastic news.

[ironstorm] 23/7/2019 19:39

37% resource increase at Coringa coming (did we know this already?) as part of the PEA.

[observer007] 23/7/2019 16:13

Interview link

[loganair] 23/7/2019 14:58

CEO MH said "Cash from the gold from the tailings treatment goes straight to the bottom line as profit because there is no real cost associated with them."

[gregpeck7] 23/7/2019 14:52

Will listen later. Very impressed with the efforts they are making to improve investor relations. Well done srb team.