Sensyne Health Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 16/1/2022 20:59

Perhaps whoever buys it will do just that. However if it must be sold - let's ensure it is fair market value. Friday's manipulation/ price action does not reflect that. Warrants pricing gave a free meal to its subscribers IMHO.

[red army] 16/1/2022 16:40

If I was loaning the company I would want to see the Chairman,CEO and remuneration committee gone before opening my wallet.

[p1nkfish] 16/1/2022 13:20

Anyway, good luck with it.

Wouldn't trust management here as far as I could throw them, just look at the mess created and the fine etc as indicative. All imho. GLA.

[p1nkfish] 16/1/2022 13:05

There is cash in big data in healthcare. No doubt at all.

Now divi up potential proceeds between the snouts in the trough from the debt holders, JP Morgan etc and see what's left over to distribute.

There is the unknown of any contract obligations too related to the ownership. Even anonymity doesn't mean you can do what you want or just change ownership of data or where the data sits.

[the stinger] 16/1/2022 13:01

40 Fathoms, pinkfish can't even read your posts correctly,, let alone RNS's etc..This share is out of his league both on understanding and risk profile.

What's your view on the near 7m block sell by 'Amati'. You cannot just approach a MM with that amount (5%) and say sell without having to give a huge discount imo. Also has to be planned/arranged ?.

[40 fathoms] 16/1/2022 12:21

Yes, he claims to be ethical and I am always suspicious of those who tell you rather than show you.

As I said earlier this is not for 90% of investors but what is clear from some of the comments here is that they have not properly read the RNS and do not understand how much money is chasing good assets in this space.

Once again I would put it to you that JP Morgan is running the FSP, this is a global bulge bracket investment bank. They do not take on mandates where they can not see their way to making substantial fees. So clearly they feel/felt that their is a significant level of intrinsic value in the business. You will also see that they said there is interest both from corporates and from financial sponsors. I think this is interesting as it demonstrates private equity interest as well.

A deal is a certainty in my view, the question then becomes what is the price once again I am certain it will be much, much, much higher than Fridays closing price. I am happy to take substantial profits if I am right and cede the I told you so bragging rights if I am wrong.

[p1nkfish] 16/1/2022 12:02

The debtor they are chasing can't lose.
Might turn around and make a low ball offer or just wait until the curtains are closed.
Rule is, don't look desperate for cash in the face of a large debtor.

I read some of the posts here and I am often wrong but they all seem too one sided.
This could go totally tips up.

[terminator101] 16/1/2022 11:58

There's no way that emergency cash will last 6 months at the rate Drayson looses money. 3 months tops, and that assumes they are prepared to run it to the wire again.

[the stinger] 16/1/2022 11:20

40 Fathoms, if they close even a couple of deals next month or two then the picture will be different. Risk/reward play here however something tells me it's worth more than 22p ps. Wouldn't be surprised to see 50p in the coming weeks.

[madcapinvestor] 16/1/2022 09:17

A very good post 40 Fathoms.

There will be volatility, but this company is definitely not going under in my opinion. Of course there is risk, but I would say the potential downside from here is 30%-40% tops, and the potential upside 500%-1000%. Everyone knew how this company burnt through cash, so there's nothing new to report in that respect. The dilution is annoying for holders, but a once in a blue moon opportunity has presented itself as a consequence.

[40 fathoms] 16/1/2022 03:09

I would humbly suggest if the market did have a 6th sense it would have sold down on Thursday before the announcement and not afterwards. Between 15% and 20% of the company changed hands on Friday, the price action was set when the warrants were priced at 10p. But if you raise money when you have to rather than when you can, you become a price taker and this is the result. Interestingly the amount of the (full) dilution equals a bit less 18% so to me that suggests the vast majority of selling was warrant holders locking in their spread.

As for the emergency money lasting, it is good for 6 months assuming they don't close some of the deals they have in the pipeline or the outstanding debtor does not pay up. That is plenty of time to complete a deal. I know most of you know how this works but it is worth reminding ourselves. A number of companies are in commercial due diligence, we know this from the RNS, they will have a deadline to provide indicative interest, price, deal structure etc. After that deadline the board and its advisors will consider the proposals and enter negotiation with a number of parties before calling for best and final offers. At that point one party will be selected and heads of terms will be agreed, additional due diligence maybe required and documentation will be entered into then a deal will then be announced.

There are two other ways this might play out that will allow Drayson to keep his ethical credentials in stake and retain a degree of control. Firstly, they could look to bring in a strategic player as a substantial minority party and in effect do a recap, secondly he could wait to see who comes in as the highest bidder and then look to partner with them on the MBO. The last one gets a bit tricky to ensure all shareholders are treated equally but I am sure can be done, they may offer shareholders a choice of a cash offer or a roll over position in a private company, clearly most shareholders other than possibly Drayson will take the cash.

It is clear to me that Friday's price action was not determined by fundamentals but by the board screwing up on its near term cashflow management and primarily by the actions it needed to take to in order rectify that situation.

Clearly this is a special situation and is not going to be suitable for 90% of investors but for those that can stomach volatility and loss there is a substantially better than even chance of making multiples of the current shareprice within 6 months.

[p1nkfish] 15/1/2022 20:33

Heading into the ground at full speed.

[terminator101] 15/1/2022 20:15

With the level of losses that Drayson is racking up (£2.3 million a month) that emergency placing isn't going to keep the lights on for long.

[billy3] 15/1/2022 13:24

I didn’t go too large on Friday.

My thinking is if the price supports on Monday, I’ll add.

If it drops, I’ll average down.

I have a limit on what I’ll invest (gamble) and I’m half invested.

[madcapinvestor] 15/1/2022 11:39

This mugging has been quite some time in the making I feel. Everything is already lined up no doubt. I wouldn't mind betting the circular is already written. When it lands and the market knows the company isn't going under in the coming weeks, this could easily bag from here.

[the stinger] 15/1/2022 11:30

Don't see it happening that fast Madcap, unless an interested party takes a position before making an outright offer. Could be more downside first?. Either way, someone is going to take this over. The loan and warrant deal was done for the major holders to see as best as possible return.

£100m spent to date on set up!, then the IP & current agreements in place and then the potential.. Current MC £35m. Well undervalued and can see 50p plus here soon on a discounted MBO deal (if no better offer arrives that is).

[madcapinvestor] 15/1/2022 11:22

If the market really had a sixth sense then in wouldn't be full to the brim with total losers.

Big gap up on the open coming next week. Look at the trades that went through late on Friday and it will tell you everything. Watch this space. I think we'll definitely see over 30p next week, possibly well into the 40's.

[p1nkfish] 15/1/2022 10:59

The market has a 6th sense. This slam down price has a reason.
Worth more to Amati as a tax loss than as a hold?
A shame.

[pwhite73] 15/1/2022 09:58

How can it continue to fall all day and settle at the lowest level down 71%. I haven't seen such a one day dramatic drop in years. This can only happen for two reasons.

1. Shares are being forward sold at 10p.

2. The markets know this is not going to open Monday morning.

[billy3] 15/1/2022 09:28

40 Fathoms…..good analysis. Interesting view in Amati. They will again the value between 10p exercise price and whatever they eventually sell for (will there be a lock in. ?) but in the other hand they lose the difference between 20p sell price and what they were worth.

What is weird is how the price dropped straight to the low 20’s ?
Amati must have known in advance so the sell order was placed early on.
It dropped quite precisely and hardly moved a penny or two over the day.
It was dramatic but orderly.
I’m sure Amati didn’t read the RNS and decide in such a short space of time to sell.

Terminator,,,,,,,I think you underestimate people and their knowledge if the company.
Many of us have been in Sens for years. Fortunately, most of us kept researching and following the last bombshell, knew that the revenue was delayed but the costs kept coming. Bottom line is the cash burn was on track but the revenue wasn’t. Mainly due to Covid which delayed for many companies. I think the figures they have given for deals I. The pipeline is probably in line for the original plan. It’s just 12 months behind.

As has been said, the company has huge value. The value is in the people, the AI systems , research agreements but most significant, the patient data. This would be a significant cost for any new company to set up and acquire.

I think this company will be too good to pass up for one of the big Pharmas who they already have agreements with.

That said, failure is always still an option so whatever people decide, they must know they could lose. The flip side is that the rewards for the brave could be huge and easily a 5 bagger from this level.

I sold all my holdings around 126p.
I bought back in just before close yesterday.
Not a significant amount but if it drops a little I’ll average down.

I’m prepared to lose but that’s trading.
I’m expecting to make a decent return.

People need to decide where their risk lies, research what they are buying in to, then make an informed decision.

Good luck.

[terminator101] 15/1/2022 08:53

What people don't seem to realise is that this was an emergency raise to keep the lights on. They are totally skint and loosing money hand over fist. It's draining away faster than a bottle of Bolly at a bojo party.

[40 fathoms] 15/1/2022 04:27

After reflection I have reached the following conclusions.

1) Amarti are among the smarter investors in the AIM space and they do not normally dump in to a large sell off. For example they stood their ground in the Polarean sell off a few months ago. What I think will transpire is that they have agreed to provide a big part of the financing package and have then sold their existing holding. Thus making a 10p spread on some or all of the warrants that they will be issued. If that is the case, it is smart and the right move for their shareholders but it is super aggressive and I think will make many look carefully at any company where they loom large on the register. This has probably be a path followed by the other shareholders involved in the financing.

2) Beyond the dilution I don't think the ultimate price received will not be massively impacted by yesterdays events. If you look at the size and breath, both of the revenue potential and collaborations already underway and the number of near term opportunities highlighted in the RNS, it is clear they have the right products in the right space and they are going to be of value to someone.

3) Given the amount of cash raised they are clearly expecting a deal to close within 4 months. Although with access to the extra 5 million as a contingency they are giving themselves some flexibility.

4) The sale process was launched at 90p because all felt it significantly undervalued the business. You would think in smallcap shareprice land a "significant undervaluation" would be at least 50%. So we can assume they were expecting offers of at least 150p per share. If we assume they are right about that and you take of 20% for the dilution and say another 15% for the damage this has done to the near-term value of the business. You should still be looking at a deal price of 100p as a minimum. My money is we get a deal at 120p-125p.

5) This is going to be an interesting test of the CEOs much touted ethical credentials. Firstly, I think he owes an obligation to the various NHS trusts and other institutions who he has paid with shares (at much higher prices) for access to patient records. Secondly, how will he balance his desire to complete the MBO at the lowest possible price vs a potentially higher price for all shareholders.

[zen12] 14/1/2022 16:20

Like all most placings it's a done deal..and likely shares forward sold.

[tomboyb] 14/1/2022 16:18

Not set in stone yet -

Full details of the proposed financing will be contained in a circular to be published and sent to shareholders and notified via RNS when the definitive legal documentation for the financing has been agreed.

But if happy with loan note and warrants at 10p then there could be a trade -

Not for me but good luck -

[tomboyb] 14/1/2022 16:11

BUT -

The proposed structure of the financing is a loan note (repayable at 1.25 times the loan note value) together with warrant coverage (12.7% of the issued share capital for the first tranche of £6.35 million and 5% of the issued share capital for the second tranche) with an exercise price of the nominal value of 10p. Shareholder approval is required for the dis-application of pre-emption rights to issue the warrants. Whilst the Board believes the financing will proceed to completion in the near term, without it the Company is unlikely to be able to continue to trade beyond early February 2022 by which time the FSP will not have concluded.

It does allow company to trade beyond Feb to FSP -