Sensyne Health Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 07/10/2021 11:13

investing is stressful - especially in stocks like this. goo luck and hopefully you will like arnie be back.

[billy3] 06/10/2021 21:48

Edwardt

Well my cash has moved elsewhere for the moment.

I fear that with no news it could flounder and below 100p is a possibility.
Anything under that and I’m interested again but would buy bit by bit and average down if it drops. Not go full in to start.

I got out average 126p.

It did cost me this time amd I took a hit but I have previously bought as high as 170p and as low as 29p.
Made my money averaging down all the way down then selling on the way up.
But got caught out by the last drop. In total, I did ok thankfully

It’s a similar scenario again but I reckon it will be news driven. No results now for 6 months so it’s all about the signing of contracts.
Will new investors wait for a profit ?
They need a lot to outweigh the cash burn.

It’s still a long term winner but I just can’t do with the stress of watching a large holding drop every day at the moment.

Happy to keep watching and wins everyone luck.
I think I’ve done more research on this company in the last two years than any other lol. Wish I know how it will pan out.

[edwardt] 06/10/2021 16:42

who knows billy? what's your line in sand to re-enter? my bet is this could get a large partner state side. what they are doing is of such strategic importance that it is loose change to the players who are eying this space..

[billy3] 06/10/2021 16:32

Is something afoot or RNS tomorrow ?

That was a lot of selling all in close succesion late afternoon.
lots of 15k and a 50k.

[billy3] 04/10/2021 14:31

Listening to the webcast. Three quarters of the way in to it.

The 25 Contracts and how the companies have received the platform is portrayed as very bullish.
They range from the hundreds of thousands to multi million in contract value.
They seem very confident of good conversion of the talks in to contratcs.
Even exceeding full year expectations.

If I were holding still then I'd still be pretty confident.
But not bet the farm on it.

I'll keep watching for further dips if they happen. If they don't then great for those of you still in.

[jaforsadi] 04/10/2021 12:32

Seems over valued on their results

[edwardt] 04/10/2021 10:48

i am holding on too. the body language on the call was hard to read but it did feel like a large contract could be announced at any time to me - this would get over the anxiety the analysts displayed about when the contracts will land.

[volsung] 04/10/2021 10:12

Just me left then?
Bought a few more at 118.6p
Still have a cushion of profit so will buy the dips

[zulu_principle] 04/10/2021 09:58

Billy3 - many thanks, pretty well agree with everything you've said. I've also been in and out of these shares for around two years and am disappointed to be out. Luckily I've managed to emerge unscathed.

The business model has always appealed to me but the continued failure achieve North American accreditation makes me think the headwinds they refer to are pretty strong and the local competition is about to catch up or overtake.

From past experience I know Americans much prefer to buy local (even when a friendly foreigner has a better product on offer).

Best wishes to those clinging on. If we see some contracts with good revenue / profit forecasts attached I'll rejoin you.

[billy3] 04/10/2021 09:34

Well I’m sad to say that as of this morning, I am all out.
I’ve been in this company for over 2 years and seen the highs and low.
Made a decent amount on them but taken a hit this morning on current holdings as as most were bought back in higher.

I’ll cover a few points which may assist other.

In terms of the process, it took me 7 transactions and numerous attempts to sell my holdings. As it is the AIM I kept getting no quote back. (I use HL platform). All the while, the price drops and you can’t sell. I had a minimum price to sell and I was happy it stayed well above that. Most of my sells also showed as buys and above the displayed mid price so were incorrectly shown on level 2.

Why have I sold ?

I am both a trader and an investor. I’ve bought Sens and sold some to buy back 10 or 20p lower. Mainly an investor though. Sens is one of my only 2 physical share holdings as the rest of my cash is spread betting which I’ve done for over 20 years. So on a Perosnal level, Sens is a large part of my holdings and money I cannot afford to lose.
Having seen the post about the times article (thank you )I considered the risk and it became too much for me.

Sens is a fantastic company but the article made me realise what I actually knew, but hadn’t really thought through enough.

On results day last week there were a number of things that bothered me. I kept thinking ‘cash burn’. As it always is with Sens, it is huge. Income dented it a bit but was likely just from Excalibur. First half this year below expectations ? Then it got to where the real gamble came in. The 25 possible contracts in the pipeline sounded great. Though it was buried at the bottom of the results. The company still think they can meet full year forecasts this current year, but the rub is, it’s contingent on getting those Contracts. The company profits is now hinged around sensight. So financially, that for me is too high risk and investment at the current price.

In terms of the share price, it’s pretty much broken support and I see this heading back to 100p. Sentiment isn’t great at the moment for these type of companies after Covid. We’ve got a 6 month period now waiting to see what contracts come in and at least 6 months before we get a year end update. I don’t think many will hold in and wait.
News on signed contracts will certainly help but we need to see profits. Looking at cash burn they need 20-25 mil income before they will make any money.

I feel a little sadness being out after all this time. I think the next 6 months will be turbulent for the share price I also see yet another go at fundraising. I took part in the last one and took my full entitlement.

I would love to know what Gatemore investment have to say on this matter as they are a large shareholder and activist investor.

The above is all just my opinion and I hope my thinking assists others.
I’d love to be back in as I still think the company has huge potential. But that will not likely be unless it’s under 100p and there is news of signed agreements for sensight with solid income.

I’d be interested to hear others views as this BB seems to have thinned out over the months.

To those still here, thanks for your contributions and keep them coming.

[mrmarmalade] 04/10/2021 06:41

I haven't listened to the call so can't comment.
I don't have access to the digital either but the paper version which I will summarise says
Lord Drayson has warned that it may not be able to continue in its present form.
Material Uncertainty over its ability as a going concern.
Mgmt Says its base assumption that it has enough cash to meet its liabilities this year but concerned whether it would be able to raise more were it to need a cash injection.
Says it is confident in its growth prospects noting it had tapped inv for £28m in Jan.
As we know Pretax losses up 5.8 to 28.4m to April. Net cash 23.6m
Rev up 7m to 9.1m with 5.1 from DHSC for Excalibur.
Mentions "scandal" over 1m bonus payment to Drayson and FD. Labour donor.
Sensyne says trading slower than expected due to uncertainty over covid testing which restrained adoption of Magnifeye.
That pretty much is it and as I re-read to write this it seems the paper were keen to give Drayson a kicking.
Where can I get the analysts call please?

[rambutan2] 03/10/2021 21:15

I listened in to the analysts call on fri and didn't come away with any such fears!

[rambutan2] 03/10/2021 21:10

It's behind a paywall so can't see it beyond the headline. For some reason The Times always carries negative stories on Sensyne. What's the gist?

[edwardt] 01/10/2021 17:44

Revenue not flakes!

[edwardt] 01/10/2021 17:43

I am sitting tight. If they are confident they have enough in the tank to meet year end consensus that is good enough for me- that is 14x last years flakes fwiw.

[zulu_principle] 01/10/2021 08:25

Out again. Too many "headwinds" and promises of jam tomorrow. Still a very interesting company with huge potential - I'll continue to keep these on my watch list and hope to rejoin the party in a while.

[rambutan2] 24/9/2021 13:19

Noted that someone bought 1m at 146p yesterday. That overhang still being eaten into.

[billy3] 24/9/2021 11:36

Results out next Friday.

[edwardt] 10/9/2021 09:48

my assumption is the 25k is very entry level . if you want to work specifically on data or use it for trials - the fees will spiral. i like it as it is in essence a monthly sub with a modular cost for more.

[rambutan2] 09/9/2021 21:01

Is determined not to shift from 148p no matter how positive the news - has to be the overhang from the overhang, so to speak. Ho humm.

Liberum came out with a new note today. I don't have access to it but am sure it's positive.

Yes, don't need too many £25k subscribers and it starts to add up. I wonder what a realistic TAM is? Certainly BIG.

[edwardt] 09/9/2021 15:05

25k per user bit more than amazon prime.

[zulu_principle] 02/9/2021 13:08

A small amount of ongoing dilution is worth the PR value of the research deals being signed (some idea of potential revenues would be very welcome though).

Trading patterns for the past few months make me think someone is quietly accumulating. Sells significantly out-number buys but the price has held steady firstly at 140p and now around the 148p level. Every now and again there's a largeish trade at the mid-price.

Not adding any more for now but happy to hold and keep watching.

[edwardt] 02/9/2021 10:52

giving equity and sinking a lot of money in to improve their computers is all good but would love to know the length of these contracts as it does feel one way traffic but i guess management know what they are doing!

[billy3] 02/9/2021 07:56

Another SRA. Interesting move into paediatric medicine.
All good stuff. We need to see some good income streams too.