Buyers back in this morning, nice! |
30p should be the bottom |
Chart says support at 31p. Will probably pick some more up around this area. No reason to suspect that the deal wont go through, they haven't indicated otherwise and hopefully they are negotiating hard to get a bit of cash out of it as well. There has been a decent sized seller since the top, probably deleveraging as a rational investor should do if they have a big holder. For me at least, this is just a normal pattern following a big rise but I expect to see support at that level. nai, dyor, wtfidk! |
As a holder in this for the longer game, and still seeking to accumulate more shares, I'm slightly surprised, but happy about this drop. |
Be getting some more then.Still expecting a partnering announcement around year end.Cash |
Low 30s coming |
Well I've long thought the Farmout is 95% inevitable.
I've also long thought its going to take some time,maybe longer than some folks think .There are lots of moving parts.
Its one thing to resize its another to be completely out .
Not a good idea at all IMV . |
Will smraynot be back from his trip on the Metro before news lands here? Be a shame for him to miss out.. |
Could do with a little update on any progress |
Dangerous strategy but whilst the large grey creature is still in the room there is room for manoeuvre. |
No harm in that but do you think you might have to pay more |
Patience is a virtue unfortunately patience is not one of my attributes and taken a small profit and reinvested temporarily into Metro. I will be back. |
I expect the plan (hinted at in a previous presentation) will be to get DEWA and some other future acquired assets to production, and ultimately sell the whole lot, including their share of the Kertang discovery, to a bigger player, for £££, Within the next 3 to 5 years.
Thoughts? |
That's a big lump of change for any O&G major to find in these uncertain times for fossil fuels. No wonder they are taking their time to make an investment decision. |
Bit of colour from the Cavendish note..
Valuation
We model the Kertang prospect at US$20.4bn (NPV15, gross) or US$3.2bn net to Seascape. In our Seascape NAV, we risk Kertang using a conservative 5% commercial chance of success, giving a risked valuation of US$26m or 34p/share.
In line with Seascape’s guidance, we assume that Seascape will retain a 15.75% interest in Block 2A post farm-down.
First production is estimated at 2033, before plateauing in 2035 at rate of 1.2Bcf/d of natural gas and 230kboepd of condensate.
Gross capex is estimated at US$4.2/boe or US$6.9bn, with opex of US$4.0/boe or US$7.9bn.
At its peak, we estimate that the Kertang prospect will generate cUS$500m of free cash flow per annum net to Seascape’s 15.75% interest.
It should be noted that given the long development lead time and time to first production, our current valuation of US$2/boe increases substantially the closer we get to first production. |
I think the market makers are having fun this morning, holding the share price down, when the band snaps whoooooosh, 50p+ here we come 🚀. Love the Cavendish note, beautiful read. |
Divmad, watch the presentation on Youtube, plenty of options for developing DEWA. I think Kertang might be more interesting though on that point, will have to see what comes with the farmout.
Katsy, go to cavendish dot com and sign up, pretty simple, few other interesting notes out today as well. I tend to take these with a pinch of salt but they do add to the knowledge. |
Is there a link to this note, please? |
Does the note explain it quantify how Sea will get the funding to develop DEWA and earn that $70mn a year of profit? |
Very interesting note and very conservative imho, don't have a problem with that though:
Assuming Cavendish are talking with SEA, the farmout is still on track for this year.
DEWA forecast to produce more than US$70m of pre tax profit and US$50m of free cash flow net to Seascape per year with production to start mid 2027. I can't see why they have a 30% cos though given these are drilled fields.
Kertang: The 3U case is 20.1tcf, that is insane!
They model Kertang at US$20.4bn with a 5% COS with a risked valuation of 34p per share, 5% is very conservative, SEA have it at 15% or more I think!
All imhi, nai, dyor. Nice note though! |
Looks like that report came out at just the right time to halt profit takers. |
Yep, this definitely qualifies as interesting with the low number of shares in issue, huge recent volume & an 838p unrisked valuation. Those are Rockrose type numbers... |
What price when farm out is agreed |
Really excellent 13 page Cavendish note out today .
Staggering unrisked numbers in there . |
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