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SEA Seascape Energy Asia Plc

37.50
-2.50 (-6.25%)
Last Updated: 10:20:39
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Seascape Energy Asia Plc LSE:SEA London Ordinary Share GB00BKFW2482 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.50 -6.25% 37.50 188,303 10:20:39
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
37.00 38.00 40.00 37.50 40.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
11:01:23 O 20 38.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/11/202407:44Seascape Energy Asia plc342
12/11/202413:28SEA - Pile of stinking shite1
26/10/202422:06Seaenergy - Offshore wind - plus a little oil & gas (moderated)32,460
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04/6/201516:19Sea Energy PLC - Offshore wind energy5,517

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Seascape Energy Asia (SEA) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 21/11/2024 07:26 by ohisay
Bit of colour from the Cavendish note..

Valuation
We model the Kertang prospect at US$20.4bn (NPV15, gross) or US$3.2bn net to Seascape. In our Seascape NAV, we risk Kertang using a conservative 5% commercial chance of success, giving a risked valuation of US$26m or 34p/share.
In line with Seascape’s guidance, we assume that Seascape will retain a 15.75% interest in Block 2A post farm-down.
First production is estimated at 2033, before plateauing in 2035 at rate of 1.2Bcf/d of natural gas and 230kboepd of condensate.
Gross capex is estimated at US$4.2/boe or US$6.9bn, with opex of US$4.0/boe or US$7.9bn.
At its peak, we estimate that the Kertang prospect will generate cUS$500m of free cash flow per annum net to Seascape’s 15.75% interest.
It should be noted that given the long development lead time and time to first production, our current valuation of US$2/boe increases substantially the closer we get to first production.
Posted at 20/11/2024 09:34 by devonlad
Very interesting note and very conservative imho, don't have a problem with that though:

Assuming Cavendish are talking with SEA, the farmout is still on track for this year.

DEWA forecast to produce more than US$70m of pre tax profit and US$50m of free cash flow net to Seascape per year with production to start mid 2027. I can't see why they have a 30% cos though given these are drilled fields.

Kertang: The 3U case is 20.1tcf, that is insane!

They model Kertang at US$20.4bn with a 5% COS with a risked valuation of 34p per share, 5% is very conservative, SEA have it at 15% or more I think!

All imhi, nai, dyor. Nice note though!
Posted at 25/10/2024 14:13 by someuwin
Cavendish 21 October 2024


Growing the Malaysia Portfolio

Seascape Energy has been awarded a 28% non-operated interest in a Small Field Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for the DEWA Complex Cluster, offshore Malaysia. Situated in shallow water (40-50m) offshore Sarawak, the DEWA Cluster contains several material undeveloped gas fields capable of low-cost, near-term development. The award supports the Company’s recent decision to strategically pivot the business to focus on SE Asia and complements Seascape’s existing high-impact Block 2A opportunity, containing the multi-TCF Kertang prospect.

—A Material Opportunity for Seascape. DEWA is comprised of 12 gas discoveries off the coast of Sarawak. Gas was initially discovered in the area in 1982 but was overlooked by previous partnerships which were focused on oil/liquids production. The JV is anticipated to initially focus on six discoveries which Seascape estimate to contain in aggregate 500Bcf of gas initially in place, of which 300-400Bcf is potentially recoverable (84-112Bcf net to SeaScape). The fields are characterised as having clastic reservoirs, with large gas columns and good hydrocarbon mobilities. In addition to the discovered resource, there is upside potential from step-out opportunities and untested reservoir sands.

—A Low-Cost Route to Growth. The assets are development ready, meaning that no further appraisal is required. Given the shallow water depths and proximity to existing infrastructure, Seascape, together with its partners will pursue a low-cost, near-term development, which has the potential to produce 80100MMscf/d at plateau (22-28MMscf/d net to Seascape).

—Nil Cost and a Low-Cost Work Programme. At nil cost, the DEWA portfolio includes a significant dataset of 35 well penetrations, well logs, multiple drill stem tests (DST) and modular formation dynamics tests (MDT) as well as extensive 3D seismic coverage across the entire PSC area. The initial low-cost work programme (US$0.6m net to Seascape) is to conduct a detailed resource assessment and deliver a Field Development and Abandonment Plan within two years.

—Complementing the Portfolio. The DEWA Cluster builds on Seascape’s existing position in Malaysia and complements the existing high-impact Kertang exploration prospect. Kertang has been independently assessed to contain gross unrisked mean prospective resources of 9.1Tcf of gas and 146mmbbls of NGL’s. Following recent approaches from multiple large companies, Seascape Energy is running a formal farm-out process expected to conclude during H2/24 to secure a partner ahead of drilling.

—A Capable Operator. The DEWA Cluster will be operated by EnQuest. EnQuest are well known to the London market and have extensive experience in operating offshore Malaysia through the PM8/Seligi gas asset. In FY23, the PM8/Seligi asset produced 7,437boepd (net to EnQuest) and contained an estimated 28mmboe of net 2P reserves.

—Incentivising Investment. The development of these fields will be under the new Small Field Asset terms which are specifically designed to simplify and incentivise rapid development of smaller hydrocarbon accumulations in Malaysia. The terms were introduced to provide opportunities for industry players with the right capabilities to extract greater value from discovered resources.

"Valuation We will update our target price and valuation in due course. However, we note the recent acquisition of a portfolio of producing Sarawak gas-focussed assets by TotalEnergies from SapuraOMV for US$4/boe. Net to Seascape, this would value the 14-19mmboe of net resources at Dewa at a potential unrisked value of 75-100p/share (5.4-7.2x the current share price). Similarly, at Block 2A, we estimate that Seascape would look to retain a 15.75% interest post farm-down. This would equate to a net mean prospective resource of 261mmboe (1.4Tcf of gas and 23mmbbls of NGL’s). At US$4/boe, this would equate to a potential unrisked value of £14.65 per share net to Seascape."
Posted at 25/10/2024 08:51 by devonlad
someuwin
22 Oct '24 - 09:07 - 88 of 188
0 11 0
From Cavendish yesterday...

Valuation
We will update our target price and valuation in due course. However, we note the recent acquisition of a portfolio of producing Sarawak gas-focussed assets by TotalEnergies from SapuraOMV for US$4/boe.

Net to Seascape, this would value the 14-19mmboe of net resources at Dewa at a potential unrisked value of 75-100p/share (5.4-7.2x the current share price).

Similarly, at Block 2A, we estimate that Seascape would look to retain a 15.75% interest post farm-down. This would equate to a net mean prospective resource of 261mmboe (1.4Tcf of gas and 23mmbbls of NGL’s). At US$4/boe, this would equate to a potential unrisked value of £14.65 per share net to Seascape.


Potential valuation of £1.00 + £14.65 = £15.65 per share. Almost 100 fold from current 16p.


I think they are looking for a lot more, these opportunities don't come around very often!
Posted at 24/10/2024 12:18 by darcon
Yes, they did say they wanted to avoid equity dilution and I think they also believe that their share price currently undervalues their SE Asian opportunity set. A cash component to their farm out would indeed be the obvious route to avoiding equity dilution.

However, giving up more of Kertang to get cash would also be a form of value dilution. So they'll need to assess at the relevant time in their commercial discussions whether the potential cash component part of the trade with the potential farminee is worth it.

I'm hoping that the expertise and contacts of our new non-executive Geraldine Murphy will help make this farm-out process as competitive and lucrative for SEA as possible.

The presence in the region of big oil companies such as Total (for which some cash component would be a rounding error) which are working on building a position in the Sarawak region and the reported intense interest in Block 2A both suggest a favorable non equity dilutive farm-out result for SEA is feasible.
Posted at 24/10/2024 05:32 by arcteryx
This presentation from 2023 suggests JM and PE are incentivized to deliver a production acquisition within the next year.

hxxp://seascape-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LBE-Topaz-Acquisition-Presentation-20230912.pdf

When Seascape (then Longboat) got hold of an extra 15.75% of Block 2A through their September 2023 Topaz acquisition (the part they now want to keep post farm-out) the presentation that accompanied the announcement mentioned the incentives that JM and PE have to get things moving, not only in terms of progressing Block 2A, but also with production acquisitions:

From Page 3 of slide presentation:

Consideration closely aligns Topaz team with value delivery from Block 2A
• Upfront consideration of $100,000 satisfied in new Longboat shares
• Contingent consideration of $125,000 upon an exploration well being committed on Block 2A or a farm-out
• Contingent consideration of up to $3 million linked to discovery size and Longboat share price performance for a period of two years post-discovery
• Additional employment incentivization to deliver a SE Asian production acquisition within the next two years
Posted at 22/10/2024 19:23 by zengas
Cash - On the geological risk - Don't skip doing the research on the analogues that SEA have provided in their presentations all the way through. Provided for that very reason and why they're analogues and displaying the same characteristics to other multi tcf giant field discoveries. I posted on these back in June when it was covered in the earlier presentations.

They have used Kasawari (it's own gas chimney/clouds on seismic), Lang Lebah and Majoram as analogues (Slide 11) . A must to read the actual reports/science/references in the notes labelled 1-4 dealing with gas chimneys/clouds/top seal integrity - we display the same similarities pre drill but one other crucial point is we are out of the CO2 window which would make any gas much more valuable and cheaper to process if correct.

All 3 analogue fields are sour/C02 rich yet in development (1 now producing) 120,000+ boepd each field.

Majoram was hidden by a large gas chimney and there is detailed references to seal integrity but the chimney/leakage was a dilation of fracture induced by the 455m gas column in the reservoir responsible for the leakage. A lot of this is technical stuff so i doubt if the board could just explain it that easily in a 1 hour presentation hence the references there for everyone to go research it. This is a 3 TCF gas field bringing on 800 mmcf/d production.

Likewise again all similar to the gas clouds/chimney at the huge Kasawari field.

Again worth reading about Lang Lebah and the source material provided ' Unravelling an abandoned giant - success story of Lang Lebah' - all there in slide 11 for further reading.

I think the chances here are very fair and in the above context i'm not concerned about any instances of leakage/chimneys - all imo good indicators of gas being there and the fact that the seabed geochem samples show very low to no CO2 and high methane is a big positive.

Take also in context where Rystad Energy have predicted the breakeven for Kasawari may be as high as $5.50 mcf or an extra $3 billion just to deal with the near 40% C02 concentration makes Kertang and the rest of 2A one hell of a very important play and a piddle in the ocean for a well being drilled out of the majors and others budgets for the gas hungry SE Asia market. I think i was very conservative in my original $3/boe valuation on a success case when considering the huge costs in some other fields.

But for now and on a seperate value path i see DEWA and it's additional upside to come along with a future addition of another of these assets making us a £100m+ company on it's own. Imo one of the best calculated risk stock to hold from this extremely low valuation by comparrison ie £12m m/cap at 21p.
Yesterday and todays presentation saw the board place an expectation of £800m+ net for Kertang on that success basis - so no doubt we're chasing around £1b value creation target.
Posted at 22/10/2024 14:44 by lmdps_crony
I dabbled and lost with this share in the 90p - 130p range back in late 2020. Everybody was piling in with their RockRose Energy winnings at the time, pushing up the share price, in anticipation of Helge Hamster pulling a rabbit out of the hat. (Turned out his hat was just full of hot air...)

After watching the presentation today I am now back - back with a vengeance baby
Some opportunity here, with the shuffling of the pack, the old IIs leaving, and before new ones arrive.

JM may have done the deal of his life by getting Block 2A off of BHP. Getting the DEWA cluster for free aint bad either. Hell - he's even got Nick Ingracious smiling and sounding like a man with a purpose!

One thing is very clear now - James Menzies is everything that Helge Hamster isnt.
And Seascape Energy is everything that Longboat Energy wasnt.
Posted at 22/10/2024 10:07 by arcteryx
Excellent presentation. Very exciting times ahead.
I noted JM's thoughts on current lowly share price also contained the element of overhang from IIs who have been selling out due to them switching focus from North Sea to SE Asia. I'm hopeful of a phoenix like rise from the share price ashes soon, but have been grateful for the chance to load up recently at these levels!
Posted at 22/10/2024 08:07 by someuwin
From Cavendish yesterday...

Valuation
We will update our target price and valuation in due course. However, we note the recent acquisition of a portfolio of producing Sarawak gas-focussed assets by TotalEnergies from SapuraOMV for US$4/boe.

Net to Seascape, this would value the 14-19mmboe of net resources at Dewa at a potential unrisked value of 75-100p/share (5.4-7.2x the current share price).

Similarly, at Block 2A, we estimate that Seascape would look to retain a 15.75% interest post farm-down. This would equate to a net mean prospective resource of 261mmboe (1.4Tcf of gas and 23mmbbls of NGL’s). At US$4/boe, this would equate to a potential unrisked value of £14.65 per share net to Seascape.

Potential valuation of £1.00 + £14.65 = £15.65 per share. Almost 100 fold from current 16p.
Seascape Energy Asia share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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