Let's keep this BB to SE Asian stuff please. |
Zengas, on a continuing success case, as SEA builds out a full suite of emerging producing assets in SE Asia at low financial and environmental cost, what is the best analogue for valuation comparison? Cove, or RRE, or someone else? |
 Last month we were told of 'Multiple, near term catalysts ahead' in terms of value.
We have got the Dewa deal through.
The major Block 2A farmout is due this quarter.
That's 2 and hardly multiples in the near term - so what else to come next 6 months?.
Tuesdays presentation they said they were being brought more than enough opportunities to look over by Petronas. If they are offerring stuff to us in the first place then it's likely something would come our way (if we deem it suitable/right terms).
In addition they highlighted a significant opportunity set across the region.
They also said they hoped to build out a train of more opportunities like DEWA. If so, this alone is building reserves/resources at no drilling exploration cost to find those in the first place with many already covered by expensive 3D.
We are basically skipping two major capital needs steps that most companies require just to get to the stage of having 2C/2P. So this is why there is a huge value lag.
In addition they highlighted a significant opportunity set across the region.
DEWA is only a stepping stone and they value it as a future 75-100p on what is there now - not including the expected upside of some gas reservoirs/faults left untested and further step out.
What value another 1-2 DEWA type deals at zero cost ?
As to 2A we are surrounded by majors such as Shell, Total, Connoco, PTT and others. We have one of the most highly rated deal makers in GM with 35 years experience that has handled major deal advisory sales like Cove Energy, deals for BP, Apache now part of Exxon, Total, Cnooc, Sinochem etc. She arrived in June but was most likely consulted way back as the new focus was considered long before that.
With a farmout deal on such a mega 3d covered and drill ready project likely by year end - and rest of above - i'd think this would be worth a lot more than 50p for starters ie barely £28m which in itself is just too low and a fair but imo understated assessment for the short term and expect a few traders/short termers to move out along the way.
Some of us know (and sufferred for pointing out) the heady valuation of £50m attributed to a Sarawak focussed player awaiting an award of an onshore block at just over half the size to 2A without any 3D, barely 450 km lines of 2D, No CPR, and no ultimate knowledge of what percentage they might have - and no other fall back asset to underpin or seperately grow the company. A valuation comparable would have put us at 100p/£50m mkt cap region. |
Off-topic to SEA, re Russian gas transit via Ukraine in response to posts 158 & 159:
There are some useful tables in these articles showing how Russian gas supply to the EU has reduced in aggregate and also how the proportion of it being sent via pipeline in transit through Ukraine has also fallen. There are options to reduce the Russian gas supply figures further which are discussed in the second linked article. |
Apotheki,There is hardly a queue of suitors lining up to buy NS assets. DELT had to give away their share of the Pensacola gas discovery.Cash |
pogue, I believe a lot of it comes through other routes as well - not least LNG. |
arceryx
you do know that the Russian gas goes through Ukraine don’t you?
It will stop at Xmas Zelensky says as the agreement runs out and he is using it as blackmail to get cash from the countries it supplies. I think it goes to Slovakia and either Hungary or Poland. Going to be fun when that happens to the gas prices in Europe as it will create a shortage mid winter. Sometimes you wonder who your allies are in this world since a Ukrainian blew up Nord Stream. |
Hopefully LSE:DELT can emulate LSE:SEA by selling Selene for circa GBP£20m and re-deploying the cash |
When Europe is still so reliant on Russian gas, filling up Putins coffers for their war in Ukraine(check the figures for continued imports) it's so crazy the opposition to North Sea gas is so strong. But that's the political reality, and why Seascape is now a very different prospect than Longboat was |
Another point, North Sea player HBR, is looking to fully selloff and move on from North Sea. No point wasting time with small fields in an increasingly hostile political and fiscal environment.I think it's a big tick in the box management finally listened to shareholders and let the rotting carcass of the European North Sea assets go from here.The focus on SE Asia makes this a very attractive investment case in more ways than one.Cash |
Zengas et all,Great posts over last 24-48 hours.I love the Geraldine Murphy connection - familiar with her involvement at Impact oil. The dealmaking there has seen that little firm prosper as the world's newest major offshore basin continues to stun the industry.I hope the team secure a big operator that can swiftly move towards field operations and well commitment at 2A.Cash |
Market cap at 30p is GBP 17 million about which is too low.Imo will see 70p ( GBP 40 million market cap) on this rise. Market cap is just too low even after the 100% rise over the last 3 sessions.That should do before the farm out news on 2A |
Welcome chewin. 50 bagger+ from these levels if Kertang comes in. Not to mention the then elevated value of the rest of Block 2A.. |
Joined you guys today. Been watching for months at 14p levels, but it's cheap and somewhat derisked, so initial nibbles this morning. |
Roll up Roll up for the great Seascape giveaway - provided to you by Alistair Bruce, BlackRock, Progressive Capital Partners and other ex-Longboat large shareholders! |
Gonna be a good day today? - or a very good day?
Any shares you can pick up, up to and including a quid, being as they are underpinned by the DEWA value, are basically free lottery tickets for the Kertang £14+ jackpot prize. As our Chairman likes to say: "I like those odds" |
This presentation from 2023 suggests JM and PE are incentivized to deliver a production acquisition within the next year.
hxxp://seascape-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LBE-Topaz-Acquisition-Presentation-20230912.pdf
When Seascape (then Longboat) got hold of an extra 15.75% of Block 2A through their September 2023 Topaz acquisition (the part they now want to keep post farm-out) the presentation that accompanied the announcement mentioned the incentives that JM and PE have to get things moving, not only in terms of progressing Block 2A, but also with production acquisitions:
From Page 3 of slide presentation:
Consideration closely aligns Topaz team with value delivery from Block 2A
• Upfront consideration of $100,000 satisfied in new Longboat shares
• Contingent consideration of $125,000 upon an exploration well being committed on Block 2A or a farm-out
• Contingent consideration of up to $3 million linked to discovery size and Longboat share price performance for a period of two years post-discovery
• Additional employment incentivization to deliver a SE Asian production acquisition within the next two years |
I'd be very unsurprised if Enquest made a bid here. |
News came out 3 days ago and volume has been increasing every day since. |
Two steps up , one step back , then go again Ladder formation until market prices it correctly |
Had a friend who is a much better chartist than me have a look at this. Target is pretty much bang on 44p which should then become support for the next leg, ceteris paribus as they say. nai, dyor, this is aim junior oilers so don't bet the house on it but that is our initial target share price |
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