Seller running out of ammo?
or keeping their powder dry? |
Thanks Zengas . Very appetising considering the shares in issue fully diluted would be approximately 64 million today .And then there is the new DROs to be awarded soon. |
 As shown in the presentation - Retaining 15.75% of Kertang would represent about 260 mmboe net and in excess of £500m value if successful (divided by X amount of shares in issue) - certainly blue sky as they say just for Kertang. It would open up further prospects on 2A. I use a low 50c/MCF ($3/boe) in that valuation but the other fields cost projections imo could make a mockery of that price if successful and could mirror a Cove like play further ahead.
In context of all that's been described these imo would be 'high' value BOEs for the industry to chase given the wider picture if anyone has taken time out to research it.
Kertang/2A - "intense industry interest" and "wide range of interest from global energy companies". So not surprised !
All the gas sampling and studies show that we are out of the CO2 window !.
"Only 110 km from infrastructure" !
Very important to note and fully take on board that the estimated 10 TCF Kasawari field Malaysia described as an analogue to Kertang has just come onto production at 200 mmcf/d and ramp up to full sales of 575 mmcf/d next year.
Compared to Kertang-
81 km sales pipeline to infrastructure connection - then onwards to Bintulu. 138 km pipeline connection to the depleted M1 field to dump CO2.
One of the largest and perhaps most expensive gas fields in the world due to dealing with the near 40% CO2.
Rystad Energy article on Kasawari describing that the huge cost of dealing with the C02 is estimated to take the break even cost to over $5 mcf or over $30 boe while another draws comparison to a previous project of smaller scale onshore Australia at $3.1 billion alone to deal with the CO2.
"A recent discovery offshore Indonesia that may be impacted is the Abadi LNG project. Japan’s Inpex, the field’s operator, is still evaluating the investment needed to tap into nearly 10 Tcf of offshore gas. One consideration it is looking at is the potential inclusion of an CCS facility which Rystad estimates would mean first gas breakeven at around $8.00/Mcf. ($48/boe)"
"Fueling the Future With Sour Gas
In simple terms, Southeast Asia’s short-term energy outlook is highly dependent on sour gas—also known to the industry as contaminated gas—because it represents about half of what’s left to produce. The big downside is that sour gas is notoriously costly to process, even without considering the cost of CCS.
The potential wave of capital outlay is driven in no small part by mandates across Asia to halt the construction of new coal-fired power plants and instead promote the conversion to or building of lower-emitting gas-fired power plants."
So in that context above it is no wonder that there is "intense industry interest" and a "wide range of interest from global energy companies" and why it's one of the most exciting opportunities to come across. |
It would be nice to see a farmin for block 2A and a cash payment, now that would be very nice indeed. I think the Ketang prospect is drill ready with 3d Seismic this should wet the appetitite on this play for the big boys baring in mind that there are no 3D seismic costs and time elimated, the kertang could be drilled mid next year with a sucessful farmin this side of xmas.
Being malaysia`s largest undrilled target I would imagine a farm down will be a given Q4 hopefully :) |
Re Block 2A:
On slide 8 they state: "Seeking to retain at least 15.75% post farm-down".
SEA's interest in Block 2A was originally acquired by LBE through a licensing round (36.75%) and subsequently topped up with a further 15.75% acquisition of Topaz One.
So they're contemplating holding on to the Topaz One acquired holding structure and transferring the entire 36.75% original LBE interest that carries the operatorship right. That ought to be a relatively simple transaction involving a share transfer in the holding vehicle for the 36.75% interest.
I do not recall seeing such a statement about the specific interest that they were seeking to retain in their June presentation or earlier presentations I believe. So I think it is the first presentation in which they have clearly specified the minimum % stake in Block 2A that they would like to hold post farm down. |
Looking at the presentation block 2A is surrounded by large companies such as Shell , TOTAL, PTT , ConocoPhillips etc.Not surprised with the interest and most likely our partner will be one of those."Following recent increased interest levels in exploration for world-scale fields, multiple large companies have approached the Company regarding Block 2A. Having consulted with PETRONAS, the Company has commenced a farm-out process to identify a suitable partner." |
Good presentation i thought listening carefully between the lines.
Picked a small amount up pre close.
Page six - Is that the first time they've highlighted the area containing the DROs. Red for gas fields (some very sizeable) so not sure if those are all developed or not and ours as yet unmarked/not shown ? |
He pretty much said the same thing on the June 27th presentation. Just the timeline for the DRO signing has slipped. |
Nothing new ..well you werent watching the Investor Meet and James Menzies .
Whether thats a material issue we will find out fairly soon .
I bought another 60 k more today at circa 15p .FWIW |
Somebody has dump 500k shares. Nothing new in todays update. In fact I could've watched the summer update and been none the wiser. |
There's been bit of a bit of a turf war going on recently over offshore Sarawak .Little brother wants a bit more of the action. |
The DRO deal is done imo. Just waiting for final signatures which they were expecting by today.
looking forward to Q4 here |
Investor Meeting:
"What we want to do is give a "free ride" to our shareholders (on Kertang)".
What's that going to be priced at?
(The bigger the prospect the more difficult and the less the interest as a carry).
"New SFA Gas PSC" ... maybe taking time due to they being partner-driven time line?
"Partner" is a new one on me but may have missed it. But SEA not capable of operating so it's obligatory condition precedent.
Conclusion: Timeline uncertain. |
Looks like even if they did not pursue Norway deals , this would not have happened any sooner . As alway timing is out of their control when all this get signed off Expertise they might be , but Norway investments weee not good enough |
Added more. Drop makes no sense to me. |
Expected , wise to wait on outcome here This is in line with the Company's current activities of exploring, maturing its discoveries and seeking acquisitions. In the absence of such funding, the Group is forecasted to have limited or no liquidity by the end Q1 2025. It is anticipated that these funds will be sourced through asset disposals / farm downs, issuing new equity or a combination of these actions. To the extent that growth opportunities will support debt, this will be considered where appropriate for example to support production acquisitions. |
Yes agree I worry about cash too , the longer it takes I only hold a small amount , not ready to add more yet |
I'm hoping for the DRO news for Monday otherwise the presentation will be meaningless with them saying we can't talk about the DRO as we're still in negotiations, like they did last time.
Mid summer, then coming weeks, I really hope this isn't another one of those hooks that keeps PI's invested into AIM stocks. |
I wouldn't get excited, the three larger trades were mine which seems to be what moved things up |
I notice in the Management team we have now have Gabriel Mynheer who seems to have come over from Longboat where he was hired as an economist back in February if I'm remembering correctly .
He's now Corporate Development & Finance Manager.
He joins a very overqualified team IMO. |
Nice to see buyers as is cheap at GBP 10 million on block 2A alone.Looking forward to the presentation on Monday and fingers crossed we get news on the DROs soon. |
We have buyers and movement |
Can't buy online with IG. Seems they have an issue since the name change. Can't be bothered to contact them as is just a small top up I wanted. |
While we're waiting on the DRO announcement it's worth bearing in mind the pipeline of other opportunities they were looking at irrespective of the DROs from 3 months ago.
"Range of opportunities under review including production and greenfield discoveries.
Additional ground-floor acreage entry options under consideration"
Any producing asset deal if sealed, is likely to be delivering cash before the DROs actually come through on revenue. |
Investing . com hasn't caught up yet with the name change. I wonder how many brokers are still in that position. |
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