Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 15:30

Waha - Other II's time to ACT!!! New all timelow - albeit on paltry volume

52 Week Low 10.00 52 Week Low Date 31-Aug-2021
52 Week High 19.50 52 Week High Date 26-Nov-2020

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 14:28

And with 3 analyst targets that average 30p with all buys and no sells....

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 14:27

Shakey - that is clearly misleading - assumes no increased production on oil wells, where multiple drills are planned to increase, Morocco with ongoing drilling will be steady state, 2 wells in Egypt next year if one comes in production in Egypt is maintained - therefore free cash flow will be positive

And one should trust analysts and not your dire and for some reason overly negative not balaned view. SDX is a minimal risk investment at current share price -

Market is pricing at 0 success going forward for Egypt drills of 90bcf (Approx 16mn barrels which have a chance of success of around 40-45% on average), etc etc (For reference current SDX reseves Start 2020 were 11.1mn barrels)

Everything to play for.... and yes company can go bust but is very very very unlikely to do so for many year and many positive catalysts can dramatically increase share price from these bottom barrel levels for a ZERO Debt firm with US$9.1mn cash, $7mn Inventory, $4mn investments with a GBP 21mn or US$29mn market cap that produces 5900bpd of gas and liquids....
With Freecash flow of over US$30mn in 2021...

[shakeypremis] 31/8/2021 14:19

Nothing to claw back. By YE 2022 these guys only have US$20m in cash on the balance sheet From thereon after given currently discovered resources it's downhill in SD in terms of production and for YE2023 SDX once again produces negative free cash flow.

[pjj71] 31/8/2021 14:04

the widow maker is sinking and the long suffering shareholders get poorer by the day...

still not all bad news; the management are still creaming it and the drillers are getting rich on the capex!!!!

if i were a shareholder i would derail the gravy train and claw it back

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 13:29

P.S. It appears a decent buy on SDX showed-up after trading hours on Fri

31-Aug-21 08:30:05 10.4999 952 Sell* 10.00 11.00 99.96 O
27-Aug-21 12:54:50 10.70 475,000 Buy* 10.00 11.00 50.83k O
27-Aug-21 17:06:41 10.40 130,000 Sell* 10.00 11.00 13.52k O
27-Aug-21 16:35:00 10.40 5,000 Sell* 10.00 11.00 520.00 UT
27-Aug-21 16:27:22 10.4999 4,685 Sell* 10.00 11.00 491.92 O

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 13:25

[e-mail]
Write to Waha and pepper them on their Twitter - no harm and it will alert them that PI base fed-up with this management. Happy to exit at a reasonable premium to current all time lows - 10.25p as I type...



What I have conveyed on twitter and via e-mail

Dear Investors at Waha - what is your strategy for SDX? Why not force an EGM and change management?

PI's would be happy with a sale of SDX to Buyer in the 20p range... current management is inept

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 13:19

Doubt Waha would drip feed to market and take a hug loss at all time lows - will likely be marketing entire company to a strategic buyer.

Morocco pipeline alone probably worth more than current market cap given investments, regulatory hoops etc

One more query if writing to SDX -> Why don't management monetize the Morocco pipeline as detailed below? If I recall spent mega bucks developing?

From SDX Website -> hxxps://www.sdxenergygroup.com/investors/why-invest/
"SDX owns 75% of the only private pipeline network in the country – future discoveries will have to go through SDX’s line to be commercialised"

Very very cheap share price / almost a nobrainer - minimal risk given current extremely pessimistic outlook / priced to fail baked into share price...

[neo26] 31/8/2021 12:52

I think waha gonna dump all there shares will take time to dump them..No one wants em..Question is who dumped PW and replaced with these two charlatans.

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 12:30

Seriously thinking about topping up here - share price for SDX has hit another all time low.
With Waha signalling unhapiness and selling a notional amount of their large holding, due to replace member on board SDX is primed for a strategy change, management change or a takeover offer.
The lowest by far EV/Barrel for any similarly sized gas company I track on LSE.

Also please note including investments in Brentford tools as listed in SDX HY reports EV/Barrel is $1500 - insane.

Per HY Results
11. Investments 4,013
The Company owns a 50% equity interest in Brentford Oil Tools LLC (“Brentford221;), an oilfield services business incorporated in Egypt, over which it
exercises joint control. Brentford owns all the assets it uses to provide its services and is legally responsible for settling its liabilities. In the current and
comparative period, Brentford has provided services only to its shareholders, but it is not contractually obliged to do so. In the past, it has contracted
with third parties and continues to seek future opportunities. On the balance of facts, the Company has concluded that Brentford is a joint venture under
IFRS 11-“Joint Arrangements” and the Company’s interest is equity accounted for. The investment is reviewed regularly for indicators of impairment.
No impairment was identified for the years ended 31 December 2020 and 31 December 2019.
Brent $72
SP 10.25
GBPUSD 1.38
Market Cap GBP £21,360,000
Market Cap USD $29,476,800
Net Cash $9,100,000
Inventory $7,640,000
Investments $4,013,000
Enterprise Value(EV) USD $12,736,800
Guidance Prodn 5,931 Actual H1 2021 Production / Full Year Guidance Range
EV/Barrel-USD $2,147
EV/Barrel-USD Investment $1,471

[Small decomissioning expense of $5-$6mn - only long term liability)

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 12:30

hxxps://wp-sdxenergy-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/08/20080635/SDX-Corporate-Presentation-H1-2021-results_final-2.pdf

2022 will be pivotal for South Disoq as SDX will be drilling 2 wells with reasonable resources being targeted with greater than 40% chance of success for the drills (at least one should come through is around 80% probability if you do the math)
[•Q2 2022 Mohsen (27Bcf - 46% Chance of success), Q3 2022 Warda (14Bcf and 40% Chance of Success) and TBC well during Q1 2023 at South Disouq]

Still sketchy / omit production prospects they are drilling in Q3-Q4 in Morocco - which I think is outrageous and unacceptable... probably taking into acount Chance of Success and Reserves targeted these are unprofitable/uneconomic wells...

Primary South Disouq Prospects - From Presentation ->

Prospect Class P50 EUR (CoS)
Mohsen Prospect 27Bcf 46%
El Deeb Prospect 22Bcf 29%
Warda Prospect 14Bcf 40%
Ibn Newton/Newton Dual-Prospect 16Bcf 40-45%
ShikabalaKES cluster (two wells) Prospect 16Bcf 25-40%
Total Prospects 95Bcf

Key upcoming catalysts from multi-year programmes with the drillbit:
•Q2 2022 Mohsen, Q3 2022 Warda and TBC well during Q1 2023 at South Disouq
•Q4 2021 West Gharib drilling campaign commences comprising of 8-12 development wells over three years to
recover 2.0-2.3 (W.I.) MMbbl of incremental 2P reserves and increase production.
•2021/22 Drilling six wells in Morocco to add production

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 12:19

Waha should call an EGM akin to Hurricane Enegy and force the current muppets so badly mismanaging the show... Boot the useless complicit board out along with this absolute garbage of a CEO and his juvenile no experience overpaid stay at home do nothing CFO!!!

WHERE ARE THE DIRECTOR BUYS!!! - NEED GBP 50-100K Buys here....

Parasitic leeches....

[ashkv] 31/8/2021 12:18

If you want to contact SDX CEO / CFO muppets listed below are their email addresses that I have deduced - I believe it is correct.

Be polite and civil -> Request Director Buys, Clarity on Morrocco drills - Resources Targeted/Cost of Drill/Chance of Success, what SDX are doing to modify strategy? -> As market not keen their current strategy as SDX is on a treadmill going nowhere!!! How do CFO and CEO justify their high salaries for inept mismanagement? Is their corruption / something underhand in Morocco that costs are so high and SDX persisting with uneconomic business? Why is Waha selling? Are Waha going to replace their board rep? ALSO POSSIBLY IS IT NOT TIME TO SELL SDX

CEO email-> reidm sdxenergygroup.com
CFO email -> boxn sdxenergygroup.com

[tnt99] 29/8/2021 18:06

Don't have to sell it all Egypt do they could sell some elsewhere surely

[shakeypremis] 28/8/2021 19:41

Lol, there is no negotiating with the Egyptian government. You get what you negotiate at the beginning and that's that as far as I know.

[tnt99] 28/8/2021 18:10

I agree they should put their money where their mouth is and show some confidence in their rhetoric But gas prices keep going up when do they negotiate a new contract or stop giving it away at rock bottom prices gas prices only going one wayUp

[wigwammer] 27/8/2021 16:14

The BRR presentation was appalling, I agree. Quite embarrassing that they concede the need to communicate a message to shareholders, yet think that waffling on about ESG and hospital donations is going to placate people. Totally amateur.

[ashkv] 27/8/2021 13:18

Indeed Waha should call an EGM akin to Hurricane Enegy and force the current muppets so badly mismanaging the show... Boot the useless complicit board out along with this absolute garbage of a CEO and his juvenile no experience overpaid stay at home do nothing CFO!!!

WHERE ARE THE DIRECTOR BUYS!!! - NEED GBP 50-100K Buys here....

Parasitic leeches....

[neo26] 27/8/2021 12:49

KaosIf those deeper prospects dont come in next year then they should look to wind up company.They need new aquisition, surprised they not saying anything. Total shareholder destruction.

[wigwammer] 27/8/2021 10:28

Yeah that's by far the most likely explanation... qualified experts with 12 years experience at top firms regularly trade in their careers for "juicy kickbacks" at companies with no future .. :)))

[pjj71] 27/8/2021 10:09

i'm sure the new chap from EY wants an easy ride and has heard about the widow maker gravy train....

when you are spending millions on consistently unprofitable, unjustifiable and pointless capex the kickbacks must be pretty juicy

[wigwammer] 27/8/2021 09:38

Re hidden assets... this is also capitalised at $3.7m usd ... you get quite a lot for yer £20m market cap.. "The Company owns a 50% equity interest in Brentford Oil Tools LLC ("Brentford"), an oilfield services business incorporated in Egypt, over which it exercises joint control."

[wigwammer] 27/8/2021 09:19

Regarding the new hire you mention, he appears to have a background in transactions - which will be important if they are to get the right deal. More to the point, the guy coming in has left a 12 year career at EY to set up stall at SDX. Not something you do unless you feel the business has a future.