Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[shakeypremis] 03/2/2022 13:27

Management and board should really be sacked now - someone has to takeover and turn this around now or it's all going down the toilet.

[34adsaddsa] 02/2/2022 18:15

More like 3+ years ago.

[wigwammer] 02/2/2022 17:24

No doubt same growth investors - having made a fortune in the recent oil recovery - are so rolling in money they no longer bother with advfn... :)

[wigwammer] 02/2/2022 17:21

So the company is buying back assets at a fraction of what the clever clever growth investors here paid just a year or two ago. And these same growth gurus are claiming management are stoopid? Pot. Kettle etc..

[neo26] 02/2/2022 14:29

Why on earth did they sack PW as least he went after new assets, the current 2 have destroyed shareholder value.Sdx had decent cash in 2020 they could have purchased decent assets in canada just like i3e did.

[ashkv] 01/2/2022 16:15

Morocco is down 37% - and I am all for a dropping an unprofitable customer if it means a decline in production that is negative not a positive...

Morocco was previously draining cash from South Disouq and West Gharib - with the $6mn Capex saving Morocco will be self sustaining for the very expensive drilling that SDX undertakes in Morocco to sustain Gas reserves.

South Disouq Gross production prior to 1/3rd sale is down 20% - and that is why the two relatively promising 40% and 45% chance of success upcoming drills in Q2 and Q3 that will add nearly 7mn barrels of reserves and jump start South Disouq - also 1/3 Capex for the wells from the farm-out/sale partner...

Share is ridiculously low and oversold - based on below par management and strategy guidance.... looking forward to the FY results.

And hopefully some news of further exploration success....

[easybrent] 01/2/2022 12:53

neo26,

I think they needed to provide something positve to balance up 40% drop in Morocco production and 25% drop in South B production (gross production). Given that they are not doing the buyback until H2, the company has given them self an opportunity to back off the buyback if things goes even worse operationally in H1. If they was so comfortanble they could easily use the cash on the balance sheet and start the buyback now, but they dont.

[ashkv] 01/2/2022 11:31

Shakeypremis - why don't you sell. You have been a perma troll of this share - with $3mn buyback in H2.
With the upcoming US$3m H2 share buyback at 9p (assumption) - share price with current level of Inventory, Cash and Investments is 9.2p (do the calcs)
$15mn from West Gharib at prevailing oil prices (almost pure profit) assuming no uplift in production post the conservative guidance.
2 Wells in South Disouq Egypt with Chance of Success (COS) of 40% and 45%
Play opening in Morocco
Re-on boarding of Morocco customer at prices that make Morocco solidly profitable post capex - all to play for...

Deep value unloved share at some point - their will be a catalyst - a predator, success Disouq results, Morocco play opening, new project - this share is priced for immediate failure...

[tnt99] 01/2/2022 11:24

Crazy cheap at these prices on an oil and gas prices that are as high as they have ever been a screaming buy me thinks

[kaos3] 01/2/2022 11:24

now decrease all this "value" by the management negative NPV and you get fair present market valuation

what is NPV of the management - look at the last 5 years - decrease in company market value per year

[winnet] 01/2/2022 11:23

for me, if these drill come in okay, it'll be okay. If they don't then...

its all becoming a bit binary

I am not sure 3 million usd buyback will touch the sides here.

That said, it should at least put some support under the share price to give laurel and hardy some time to get some deals away. They do not want to be coming to the market at this price...

[ashkv] 01/2/2022 11:13

Below 3 figures value the firm at 8.09p - therefore below this SDX is effectively valued at Zero - and if nothing there is option value in the firm...
Morocco drills being successful.
2 Wells in South Disouq with decent reserves having success (40% and 45%)
West Gharib Production doubling in an oil price environment of $90...

Cash (1 Feb 2022 Operational Update): $10,600,000
Inventory (2021 Half Year Figures): $7,640,000
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm per 2021 HY Report): $4,013,000

At 463bpd guidance for West Gharib at $90 Brent that is $15mn - most of which is profit...

[neo26] 01/2/2022 11:03

EasySo why waste 3m on buybacks?

[ashkv] 01/2/2022 11:00

Major Catalysts for 2022 -
H2 BUY BACK OF About 12% of outstanding shares in H2 at current share price of 9.2p.
New ventures to be announced in Morocco.
Egypt 40-45% Chance of Success 2 Well Campaign Well 1 in late Q1/Early Q2, Well 2 in Q3 - significant production uptick if successful.
West Gharib Drilling to get to attain Net Entitlement production of 1k Barrels by end 2022/Q1 2023 - almost 2x current production.
Morocco prior client re-on boarding at a higher fees.
Morocco drilling possibly opening up new play..

Value of SDX South Disouq Production based on Jan 2022 Divestment of 1/3rd: $11,750,000
Cash + Inventory + Investments: $22,253,000
Value of Morocco Gas ($15000 Per Barrel Estimate): $9,187,500
Value of West Gharib Oil ($30000 Per Net Barrel Estimate): $13,875,000
Sum Of Production Parts: $57,065,500
SDX US Dollar Market Cap at 9.7p: $26,695,041

[easybrent] 01/2/2022 09:42

To me it looks like they had to sell the share in South Disouq to be able to afford the capex program. Imagine what the stock would have done if they presented the 2022 guidance without the sale and the possible buyback today. Morocco production going down with 40%. South D production down with 25%. Capex only slightly lower. The company must be big time cash flow negative in 2022 even including the $5.5m from the SD sale. This stock is going back to 6p in my mind.

[pjj71] 01/2/2022 09:34

few surprises from the widow maker!!! spend spend spend on capex to keep the merry-go-round of inflated wages for the snouts at the trough!!!

the only wildcard is the share buyback - maybe a friends and family shareholder forgot they still held stock and needs out!

[shakeypremis] 01/2/2022 09:23

I think it is because the market is expecting the management team to continue to run down this company. Yes it might be worth more that market cap now but this team has done nothing but succeed in reducing the value of the company by running down the assets and not growing the company inorganically when they might have had the chance in the past. When oil went to 0, that would have been a good time to grab something on the cheap, there were plenty of distressed assets but this management team actually said they wanted to move away from oil as they said it was something like a legacy fuel, bloody idiots.

[dgarvey] 01/2/2022 08:07

The sale of 33% of S Disouq values the asset at £12.3m, add in the £10m cash and one wonders at the MC at £20m. Morocco and other assets are valued at £0.00 in the SP?

[ashkv] 01/2/2022 08:03

Value of SDX South Disouq Production based on Jan 2022 Divestment of 1/3rd: $11,750,000
Cash + Inventory + Investment: $22,253,000
Value of Morocco Gas ($15000 Per Barrel Estimate): $9,187,500
Value of West Gharib Oil ($30000 Per Net Barrel Estimate): $13,875,000
Sum Of Production Parts: $57,065,500
SDX US Dollar Market Cap at 9.7p: $26,695,041

[ashkv] 01/2/2022 07:48

Winnet I too have filtered the unhinged loon - What a sad loser... nothing more productive to do than troll a share :)

"Tazerface 25 Jan '22 - 19:16 - 8953 of 8954 (Filtered)"

Hopefully this change of strategy and share buy back - possible upside catalysts on drilling success in South Disouq in the next few months plus production increases in West Gharib will lead to the share recovering some lost ground.

For the amount of capital put into South Disouq the realized price seems very cheap - would have preferred a disposal of Morocco... though they claim that all capital expenses will be paid for for from Morocco assets..

Brent: $91.30
Share Price: 9.7
Shares Outstanding: 205,378,069
GBPUSD Exch Rate: 1.34
Market Cap GBP: £19,921,673
Market Cap USD: $26,695,041
Debt: $0
Cash: $10,600,000
Inventory (2021 Half Year Figures): $7,640,000
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm per 2021 HY Report): $4,013,000
Enterprise Value(EV) (Only Subtracting Cash): $16,095,041
Enterprise Value(EV) Sub (Cash+Inventory+Investment): $4,442,041
Prod Guidance 2022 (3,300 - 3,550 Mid is 3,425): 3,425
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash): $4,699
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash+Inventory+Inv): $1,297
(Minimal Decommissioning Costs)

[winnet] 26/1/2022 18:42

Tazerface25 Jan '22 - 19:16 - 8953 of 8953 (Filtered)

I suggest we all do the same. I am all up for critical debate, but this fella is just a potty-mouthed moron.

[ashkv] 24/1/2022 10:09

100bpd net each for a total of 200bpd

From today's RNS: "West Gharib is a very high margin asset in our portfolio with a netback of US$35/bbl at US$68/bbl Brent in the first nine months of 2021. "

[ashkv] 24/1/2022 09:46

Based on a mid $80 Brent price - 100bpd net from just the two 300bp Gross West Gharib wells drilled recently is $3.5-$4 millions dollars...