Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[potential] 03/2/2017 21:26

Is *hotly* anticipated here and ill give you the reason why. Current 70/80p broker forecasts are based on a combination of SDXs producing assets (NW Gemsa, Meseda, Morocco) as well as South Disouq which is SDX big exploration prospect to be spud end of this month. The current valuations attribute 60/70p (£120m) to the producing assets and a fully risked valuation on South Disouq of just 7p (£14m) These notes are based on the historic low quality 2d data where where the COS is 13% for a net of 35mmbol to SDX. To obtain a "fully risked" valuation for an exploration asset the standard calculation is to multiply the prospect size (P50 net to the company) by discounted price of oil of £3/bl multiplied by the COS (chance of success). So these broker forecasts are giving a *current* valuation of South Disouq as 35mmbol x £3/bl x 0.13 (13% COS) = £13.65m (roughly 7p a share) Note "Fully risked" valuation for an asset is current fair value attributed to the prospect pre spud (as it takes in to account probability of success & discounted OP). ............................................................................. Now then the exciting part here is this..... Since acquiring and processing new 3d data PW has gone on record saying they have now found a new oil payzone beneath the gas and the prospect size has nearly trebled. Now its 90mmbol net to SDX (35mmbol old 2d).... this is confirmed however not RNSd yet. On top of this PW has also said the COS has significantly increased. Strong 3d data is showing up "bright spots" at fault locations. This is significant because within the historic trend when a 3d survey has had conformable bright spot at the fault locations the past historic success rate has been 90% which signifies a very high COS. Now once the new 3D lands (hopefully this next week), the fully risked NAV of South Disouq net to SDX will increase *Hugely*. (so the current value of this asset net to SDX). Heres why.... If we assume a COS of 40% (which is extremely high but possible given bright spots on 3d) this gives a new fully risked value of: 90mmbol x £3/bl x 0.4 (40%) = £108m. £110m of additional valule you can add straight on to the *current* MC. South Disouq is currently being priced at £0 by the market. So you can effectivly bolt on another £108m (58p) to the market cap on a 40% COS. COPL, PXOG and SOLO have all reached their fully risked NAV prior to spud or during spud prior to result. so I expect the same here. Hence why im saying 100p valuation here prior to South Disouq drill result. On a South Disouq success then PW states this would mean 25,000 to 35,000boepd net to SDX... you have a 10 bagger. ............................................................ Summary: Downside £0 (fair value based purely on producing assets is higher than current price). Full Risked Upside:

[potential] 03/2/2017 21:20

Always a positive sign when large stake holders increase there stake - next weeks going to be interesting indeed- or can I use the word T R A N S F O R M A T I O N A L We might have some PR over weekend so stare aware and don't forget to post if there is.Have a nice weekend

[potential] 03/2/2017 21:18

I'll update you with any new research when I can.

[shakeypremis] 03/2/2017 18:08

Potential, thanks for the google drive research note. Do you know who wrote it and whether they any more research notes?

Cheers

[someuwin] 03/2/2017 17:45

Holding RNS.

Nikolaos D. Monoyios increases from 2.5m to 6.7m - now holding 3.6%

[someuwin] 03/2/2017 17:45

Holding RNS.

Valerie A. Brackett increases from 2.6m to 3.05m - now holding 1.63%

[potential] 03/2/2017 16:33

SDX Energy boss hails 'transformational' $30mln asset acquisition.https://youtu.be/2LulvEFOexA

[deltrotter] 03/2/2017 15:51

Thanks again Christy - really appreciated.

[christy41] 03/2/2017 15:37

deltrotter...no problem.
Found this one really interesting as well.

[potential] 03/2/2017 15:31

- really good break down of SDXhttps://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-qSXJz7WvajNUtMOTQ2QW9RVHM/view

[potential] 03/2/2017 15:20

What a stormer of an interview. Absolute world class. I can see why people are thinking of holding longer temr. I don't think £1 is out question in coming months

[potential] 03/2/2017 15:17

78p will become a distant pass (ceo pw)

[paleje] 03/2/2017 14:50

Hadn't seen that, christy41, I liked his closing comments about the share price particularly the Cantor target looking small at some time in the future.

[deltrotter] 03/2/2017 14:27

tx christy

[christy41] 03/2/2017 14:21

Interview with Zak Mirs....don't know if its been posted.Bought in today

[someuwin] 03/2/2017 14:16

$16m of cash coming to them too. Which they will be able to easily access to invest in their Egypt operations.

[potential] 03/2/2017 13:53

Well done mate !!

[someuwin] 03/2/2017 13:44

Well done del.This looks well undervalued as is - with excellent prospects too.

[deltrotter] 03/2/2017 13:38

I'm in someuwin...

[someuwin] 03/2/2017 13:34

Keep buying while it goes unnoticed imo.This will re-rate big time sooner or later.

[potential] 03/2/2017 12:16

Totally agree mate

[someuwin] 03/2/2017 11:44

This is way too cheap just on current production.

Plus they have a fully carried exploration drill spudding at end of February.

[potential] 03/2/2017 11:36

Excellent !!!

[someuwin] 03/2/2017 10:59

"The acquisition will boost SDX's output by 247% to 4,705 barrels of oil equivalent per day."

[paleje] 03/2/2017 09:35

Nice sharesmag write-up, thanks someuwin.

That PER is ridiculous.