Sdi Share Discussion Threads

[dicktrade] 01/2/2023 11:29

That sounds to me like someone is clutching at straws ;-))

[worldwidet] 01/2/2023 11:08

Is this really a reason to rejoice?
SDI management has sold a large part of its shares to Danske Bank.

If I were an SDI investor, I would rather see the 8% shareholding in SDI management.

Danske Bank is known for its criminal energy and structures in dark finance networks (The Danske Bank money laundering scandal) .

@Rivaldo you like to use expressions like "impressive". I find it "impressive" when in the case of Danske Bank even involved manager in the scandal who was supposed to testify suddenly disappeared and turned up dead.

"The Danske Bank money laundering scandal arose in 2017-2018, when it became known that around €200 billion of suspicious transactions had flowed from Estonian, Russian, Latvian and other sources through the Estonia-based bank branch of Denmark-based Danske Bank from 2007 to 2015.[1][2][3] It has been described as possibly the largest money laundering scandal ever in Europe,[4] and as possibly the largest in world history."



I hope Mike and Ken did proper DD when they sold their shares to Danske BAnk and discussed exactly what these guys are up to at SDI?

[rivaldo] 01/2/2023 11:00

Danske Bank are still buying strongly - they now own over 8%, or 8.285m shares.

Per SDI's web site they had 6.98m shares at 23/12, so they've bought around 1.3m shares in just over a month:

[hastings] 01/2/2023 07:12

Looks alright to me.

[ayl30] 01/2/2023 07:11

Hmmm, sounds like a trainee NED, not a heavyweight

[rivaldo] 01/2/2023 07:09

Impressive new NED appointment - she certainly chooses her employers well as for example both Halma and Acal (now Discoverie) have been terrifically successful:

[rivaldo] 31/1/2023 08:28

C'mon sweetunicorn, or WorlwideT, or whoever you are - give it a rest for a while as this clearly isn't working! In fact your posts seem to have the opposite effect to that intended......

[worldwidet] 31/1/2023 08:25

I don't have a good feeling here...

Expected FCF FY23 (FinnCap) : 5mGBP

SDI is trading at 188p with ~38x fwd FCF.

RSI heavily oversold.

Managers selling massive amounts of shares.

I may be wrong but the current optimism that is spreading everywhere seems misplaced.

Time will tell.

[rivaldo] 31/1/2023 07:37

Tipped in the Telegraph again, this time recommending SDI as one of two new stocks which readers should buy for their Inheritance Tax portfolio:



"Two new stocks for those determined to avoid being stung by inheritance tax

Questor Inheritance Tax portfolio: these stocks have special appeal for those who want to pay less inheritance tax
By Richard Evans 27 January 2023 • 7:31am

Today we will carry out a small‑scale refresh of our Inheritance Tax Portfolio: following a cull of four holdings in October we will add two new ones. We’ll also update on some recently added stocks as well as on one that dates back longer.

New holdings: Premier Miton, SDI

These are both stocks we have already tipped for the general readership, as opposed to those who specifically want shares likely to be exempt from inheritance tax.

We named Premier Miton, the fund management company, as our stock tip of the year on Jan 11 and recommended SDI, which makes scientific equipment, two days ago.

We believe (although one can never be 100pc sure) that both qualify for “business relief”, the tax break that gives rise to inheritance tax exemption, so we add both to our IHT Portfolio now.

Questor says: buy

Tickers: PMI, SDI"

[fillspectre] 30/1/2023 21:27

Well the valuation - SDI without further acquisitions - 220p a share - that is still a 20% gain from the present share price. Rivaldo has been posting regularly here about how SDI's multiple is lower than peers. Fils.

[arregius] 30/1/2023 08:26

Good momentum

[gr1982] 26/1/2023 13:51

great posts mginestor

why don't you post more often here? I'm a silent lurker on a few boards and would be good to see more LT holders posting their thoughts after results etc

[mginvestor] 26/1/2023 13:01

WorldwideT and steeplejack,

honestly speaking from experience on this specific BB, the people on this board who post regularly do not have a problem with bearish comments.

I welcome them.

But I think we need to stop dramatising issues that are part and parcel of the evolving macro landscape and making them as significantly impacting on SDI, specifically debt levels and higher interest rates. Mike is on record as stating he does not want to be at the mercy of banks for lending in tough environments so I believe he will do whatever it takes to get that cash flow stronger in CY23. He has also stated that had he held onto his shares from the beginning he'd be very rich but that he does not regret selling them at that time. I know I would.

Finally, I am looking for 3 things that take time to come to surface from management: capability, energy and integrity. I think Both Ken and Mike have shown all 3 over the years. Yes there is an element of 'trust management' and why not? They've earnt it over the years. So we trust...but verify.

Final point. Mike sat down with the heads of all businesses in October to prioritise future growth. I don't believe the strategy was to sip tea and forget about the debt or leave off acquisitions. Him and Ken sold their shares to partially bring in Keith Ashworth-Lord's CFP fund. I assure you Keith is super shrewd and I for one am happy they're on board now and making it known.

ATB GLAH

@mginvestor

[steeplejack] 26/1/2023 08:42

Rivaldo,you and i have been around on the ADVFN boards for yonks.Hey,we even pay a subscription!I note that recently,the ADVFN boards have become more 'scratchy' and unappreciative of anything other than favourable comments.I actually welcome any comments that counterbalance the natural bias of these boards to be unquestionably bullish.I really don't care what the critic's agenda is.They might be trolls trying to shake out stock for proprietary books etc but does it really matter.Some boards elsewhere won't tolerate anything other than bullish comments on companies.The boards comprise a coterie of sycophantic punters who praise each others observations even as the shares sink lower.The exchange itself is pilloried for being unable to appreciate the merits of the company in question!

[rivaldo] 26/1/2023 08:41

Excellent spot mginvestor. Looking at their posting history, there are remarkable coincidences.....

Sweetunicorn stopped posting on 31st Dec'21, his posts to that point being entirely about SDI and VLX.

WorldwideT began posting just six days later on 6h Jan'22, and the entirety of his posts are aimed negatively at SDI and VLX.

Steeplejack, no-one cares about less than bullish comments if they're balanced and made in a reasonable manner. But this chap has invalidated his posts with both their excessively unbalanced tone and the sheer volume of them over some years now - in respect of just two companies in the entire stock market universe! Which suggests an agenda of some sort. And then there's the likely change of moniker, which is an obvious red flag....

[worldwidet] 26/1/2023 08:21

@ mginvestor

"Now of course I'm not saying he is the same person, but I am saying these arguments were made in the past and were proved wrong by management plenty of times."


Isn't it much more the case that the management has refuted the bullish arguments that prices of 300p and thus ~100% price increase have been announced when they sold the majority of their shares?

If the management were half as bullish as the forum here, they would never have sold their shares.

If there really is so much recovery potential in the SDI price, why aren't managers buying shares with their own money? None of the managers ever wanted to buy shares with their own money. On the contrary, the CEO sold his entire stock and the chairman cut his positions sharply.

I have high regard for the management and have no doubts about the quality of SDI's business, but I think there are significant risks that should be considered.

There is no point in discussing here if only bullish comments are wanted.

We will see what happens to SDI in the next few years. But as it is written here again and again, the investors assume that SDI will continue to beat expectations and that growth will remain at the >30% p.a. of the past.

Personally, I don't see it that way, but think there is great potential for disappointment here because the general conditions have changed massively compared to the last 12 years.

[steeplejack] 26/1/2023 00:25

Well worldwide might be unicorn in disguise,who cares.All he's saying is that things might get worse before they get better and equity markets are being pretty sanguine as 2023 gets underway.Musk thinks that the US is heading for a fairly significant recession this year.I think that equity markets are more than happy to be optimistic that a soft landing is possible because there's a wall of money itching to find a home.Sometimes i think these bulletin boards are becoming a tad wokish,only being prepared to applaud unequivocally bullish comments.

[hastings] 25/1/2023 18:37

What an excellent post.

[mginvestor] 25/1/2023 18:16

I don't usually comment here but when I see posts like the one WorldwideT is busy posting, I have to ask fellow investors - do you remember, some time ago in 2021, a poster by the name "sweetunicorn"?

Well this WorldwideT individual seems to write awfully similar to him. In fact he seems to be making the same arguments again and again.

Now of course I'm not saying he is the same person, but I am saying these arguments were made in the past and were proved wrong by management plenty of times.

Some of us have been here for a while now so unless you want to shock us with facts and not drama we can do a decent amount of DD ourselves.

[rivaldo] 25/1/2023 13:37

Just as well then that only last month SDI stated they "look forward to delivering a full year trading performance in line with market expectations".

And of course those expectations are always cautious and prudent, as long term holders here have learned over a number of years.

SDI have a nice habit of underpromising and overdelivering.

[worldwidet] 25/1/2023 13:26

Telegraph's buy recommendation is a fundamental non-event. Noise- no signal.

Fact is 13m debt (expected FY24) at 7-8m FCF (expected FY24).

This means that the full FCF is already needed to pay off ~half debt.

Assuming that the debt remains at 13m and the 7-8m FCF is used for M&A, it would be firepower for one takeover.

This 7m acquisition would bring an additional FCF of less than 1m at 7x multiple what SDI has to pay by now.

Organic growth has shrunk massively.

The firepower for acquisitions has diminished and SDI would have to make acquisitions for 20-25m in the next FY to get to the 30% FCF growth of the past.

The economic environment has changed significantly.

I say the headwinds for SDI are getting bigger and I am very cautious here.

The next 2-3 years can be very tough for companies and investors.

This is not the time to be greedy:

[rivaldo] 25/1/2023 12:42

The Telegraph's Buy recommendation is actually based on an interview with the Chief Analyst at Sanford DeLand (not on "thin lines"!) - Sanford recently bought in to SDI:



JDG are currently on a P/E of 23, a multiple 25% higher than SDI's. This despite JDG's m/cap being almost three times SDI's, which makes it much harder for JDG to "gallop" on a growth multiple than SDI. The likes of JDG and Halma are as such likely to look for much larger acquisition targets than SDI's pool of smaller targets - who as the Telegraph article says will be attracted by SDI's model.

SDI should be priced at 210p merely to equate to JDG.

I'd love to know where these "euphoric" stock markets are. Certainly there's been a nice upturn since the New Year, but "euphoria" is as overblown as talking about systemic breakdowns and throwing around low share prices without context. If there's an extreme recession then the entire market will be stuffed - and SDI are on a very reasonable multiple compared to many.

Plus SDI's debt is forecast to be a mere £13m at 30th April, i/e still lots of headroom for further acquisitions (hardly a "mountain"!). There are some valid arguments to be made as to inflationary pressures, Atik China sales, FCF etc, but all the exaggerations I've listed tend to invalidate credibility.

[worldwidet] 25/1/2023 11:12

The extremely bullish comments based on thin lines in a mainstream magazine and the fact that very wise articles in which @steeplejack discreetly mentions risks are immediately marked with red thumbs down confirm the euphoric mood on the general stock markets.

This makes me even more cautious when everyone agrees that everything is so positive.