Scmesgaccetfgbx Discussion Threads

[frank spencer] 10/4/2006 22:12

Looks like a potential exhaustion gap ?

I'm too scared to short it, which probably means its near a top.

[mr ashley james] 30/3/2006 21:02

Frank and Alf,

Thanks your kind words Copper April 2006 Futures have hit US$2.5120 Offer per Lb bid US$2.5020 per Lb ie around US$5,526.40 per Mt

April 2006 High Grade Copper Futures





As usual most of Market Analysts were wrong.

We are now in a whole new trading range potentially though intraday gaps below may need to get filled. I will calculate next EW Targets tomorrow.

Have a nice evening.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[frank spencer] 30/3/2006 19:09

Good shout Mr Ash.

[alf godson] 23/3/2006 10:37

Thanks Frank .

[alf godson] 22/2/2006 09:47

Thanks Ashley .

[frank spencer] 21/2/2006 22:59

Thanks Ash.

I have some long term out the money puts, which are obviously doing badly.

Happy to hold till expiry.

[mr ashley james] 21/2/2006 22:46

Alf/Frank,

Looking at your chart as an Eliott Wave Trader I personally think that the next move is likely to be to US$2.49 to US$2.5068 Lb Offer so I do not think short term top is in.

Even on Bearside I really do not expect to see a low price below US$1.82 Lb in 2006 and there is alot of support at US$2.17, US$2.125, 2.045 Lb levels ie north of US$2.00 Lb.

We are in a particularly strong Bull Commodity Market and technically I am a Mining and Commodities Bull out to April 2007 to August 2008 at least, and personally think could easily last until December 2012 to January 2013 on a 13 Year Cycle ie 61.80% of Mining 21 Year Bear January 1980 into April 1999, August 1999 or Gold April 2001.

A break of US$2.50 Lb would be very bullish, but the fundamental driver to me is Chinese, Indian and Asian overall Demand Growth which seems so far to have no sign of abating.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[frank spencer] 13/12/2005 15:08

There is a lot of confusion as to when the december contract actually fully expires.

Whilst most traders and all spread companies are using Mar06 as the front contract, actual physical delivery must happen by 21st dec.

it is by this date that the Chinese must deliver from their alleged massive short position.

I now believe we will top out between now and then.

[little beaker] 13/12/2005 14:12

I'm projecting a reversal in copper prices in line with the market forecasts over the next couple of years. As such, I am neutral on copper, and commodities as a whole.

I believe that the US$ may decline against other major currencies in the period, leading to smaller realised gains due to currency exchange losses.

I believe that the best exposure to copper and related commodities could be through an individual mining company such as Antofagasta.

[alf godson] 13/12/2005 14:10

12 December 2005

Copper down after technical correction: LME
Source: Associated Press



Copper, which hit a new record high of $US4,478 a tonne on Friday, fell $US82 to end at $US4,374 a tonne.

Despite the late sell-off, the market was seen ranging and was unlikely to stray far from recent peaks.

Aluminium traded up to a fresh 17-year high of $US2,289, but then fell with copper to $US2,231, down $US34, retreating from its next objective at $US2,300.

Zinc fell $US41 to $US1,792, after touching $US1,863 a near 17-year high, and lead was at $US1,099/98, versus $US1,110, having touched an $US1,125 fresh contract peak.

Tin rose $US75 to $US6,875, while nickel was at $US14,250, against $US14,225.

[frank spencer] 13/12/2005 13:52

Don't you just hate those idiots that bring the pbb into disrepute ?

[Abuse team] 13/12/2005 13:50

Post removed by ADVFN

[frank spencer] 13/12/2005 13:49

Any count of teh copper Tpau ?

[alf godson] 13/12/2005 13:49

Thanks Frank .

[alf godson] 13/12/2005 13:48

Thanks Frank .

[tpaulbeaumont] 12/12/2005 10:58

LONDON (Dow Jones)--A global shortage of enormous digger tires, which cost $20,000 each and take a day to make, is helping to keep the cost of metals and minerals artificially high reports The Daily Telegraph Monday, quoting miners and tire makers.

LOL!!!

[frank spencer] 12/12/2005 05:47

Copper prices rising despite China's efforts to bring them down - Macquarie

BEIJING (AFX) - Copper prices are still climbing despite efforts by China's
State Reserve Bureau (SRB) to bring down prices to cover fast-approaching short
positions, Macquarie Research Equities said in an investor note.
"The Shanghai cash copper price accelerated to a new high of 39,350 yuan per
ton on Friday despite more auctions of stock by the SRB," it said.
"On Dec 7, the SRB held its fourth 20,000 ton copper auction but only 4,000
tons of material were sold."
China has denied trying to auction down the price.
The China Business News last week cited a senior industry official as saying
the four copper auctions by the bureau are not aimed at lowering copper prices
on the international market.
Chang Qing, vice director of the China Futures Association, was quoted by
the newspaper as saying that the auctions by the SRB -- the stockpiling agency
of the National Development and Reform Commission -- were targeted at cooling
the overheated copper smelting sector and at guaranteeing domestic supply.
"The fact that the SRB solicited expert opinion before the auctions
demonstrates that the auctions were planned, and not a hasty response to short
copper positions taken by a former SRB trader Liu Qibing on the London Metal
Exchange, as reported by overseas media," Chang said in the report.
Macquarie said in the investor note that total physical deliveries by the
SRB are now around 120,000 tons over the past two months.
It has been widely reported that China -- which says it has 1.3 mln tons of
copper stockpiled -- is attempting to cool the price in an effort to avoid
potential losses on Liu's contracts, which are believed to be due on Dec 21.
Liu's short positions reportedly total about 200,000 tons and represent
potential massive losses.
(1 usd = 8.1 yuan)
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