Scmesgaccetfgbx Discussion Threads

[alf godson] 07/12/2005 10:29

Copper higher after SRB auction. All eyes now on what option declaration brings
07/12/05

The base metals put in a quiet but negative day on Tuesday with bouts of profit-taking pushing copper down through support at $4350 to a low of $4328, before bargain hunting once again lifted prices off the lows by the close. The firmer tone continued overnight with the latest SRB auction reportedly seeing less than half of the 20,000mt sold. The low uptake is thought to be the result of a combination of a high floor price as well as the auction only being open to manufacturers and not traders this time. It does suggest, however, that domestic demand is not that strong at these high prices. This mornings trading is likely to be nervous ahead of option declaration, but once this is out the way the market may have a freer hand to show some direction. On balance you have to expect this to be to the upside as the bulls dominate; that said it is worth having some contingency plan in case selling starts to take prices lower.

[frank spencer] 05/12/2005 11:16

Thanks CA.

Nice count.

[alf godson] 05/12/2005 11:14

Thanks CA .

[collection agency] 05/12/2005 11:13

EW count on copper:

[alf godson] 02/12/2005 13:51

Frank

I blame the PPT .

Regards

Alf

[frank spencer] 02/12/2005 13:50

I had to filter my watchlist, as the stuff on it kept on going in the wrong direction.

[alf godson] 02/12/2005 13:49

I know Frank .

It's on my watchlist .

Regards

Alf

[frank spencer] 02/12/2005 13:48

Thanks Alf.

Thats the dec contract they're talking about; march is now the main contract impo.

Short at 200.

[frank spencer] 01/12/2005 18:58

December contract has now expired, leaving March as the front contract.

Had a sell order at 200, which wasn't filled for some reason.

Target 140.

[indieman] 05/4/2001 06:16

Db,
I can now screen out the false signals. Please either e-mail me or let me have your PO Box No.

Indieman

[indieman] 03/4/2001 08:49

Doctorbird,
Contact me on my one-off e-mail address:-
[e-mail]

I have Dow/Coppock data going back to 1945 (end of month) and ca 1970 for monthly av data.

Regards,
Indieman

[doctorbird] 03/4/2001 01:42

Quite a lot here that I should like to respond to later. For the moment I just wanted to refer back to your LLOY post Indieman, of the 15th March when you drew attention to the Dow. The 21d,12m,12 has formed a W shape just below the line giving two consecutive buy signals on 17.01.01 and 16.03.01 at -11.16 and -11.43 respectively. This is one of the less frequent occasions when the line is not smooth and the reading may be ambiguous or perhaps the effect of later information will smooth it out. Also the distance below baseline is quite small so a further drop and subsequent buy signal is possible. A steep dive into negative territory and a regular semi-circular recovery is a much more satisfactory and useful pattern. The Synergy data goes back to early 1992 on the Dow and there have been no other buy signals in that time.

Good trading.

[peterreidsmith] 02/4/2001 16:33

Anticipating the turn...hope your right.
[I think there are very good reasons why it's a market indicator and "can't" be used for individual stocks/items.]

[indieman] 02/4/2001 16:21

PR-S,

Correct, but you can't blame others for trying to use it for individual shares. I think we all realise that it is being used out of context.

The USA gave a buy signal in February (monthly av data was -11.3 for Jan; -7.8 for Feb). I don't have the monthly av data yet for March, so can't say whether it is a case of so-called whipping signals.

Japan (Topix) is heading down strongly:-
Jan -40.2, Feb -67.4

Using the 'Buy on Decline Through Zero' method ( I hold my hands up to devising this one ) gives better results than Edwin's own method.

Regards,

Indie

[peterreidsmith] 02/4/2001 15:55

If I remember right, coppock only really lays any claim to fame on official buy signals - not sells or unofficial buys. These have a good rep - expect a ftse one sometime over the next few months.

Interested to know what the situation is with US, Japan and others.

[indieman] 02/4/2001 15:46

Doctorbird,
I've looked at the data in Post 25 above. Using the buy on decline through zero signal, most of the buys are reasonable. There are 2 outstandingly good sell signals (Oct 87 and April 98). The remaining ones are a curate's egg.

15/1/90 gave a sell at ca 2300 which was followed by a buy in Dec 90 (Bodtz) at 2164. The official buy signal was about 2300.

20/1/92 at ca 2500 lost ca 6% of the rise to the peak by being too soon. Again, little was gained by selling since the Bodtz signal was at ca 2450. The official buy was worse at ca 3125.

The 1994 sell was too late in index terms, as were both the ensuing buy signals.

I could see no reason to sell in April 96 and have to buy back in 97. The Coppock just got these wrong. The buy signal in July 99 was not helpful since it coincided with a decline lasting until October.


The coppock is an odd beast. It is capable of providing really good signals, but I don't see how we can distinguish between these and the other signals. Is there any characteristic which distinguishes them on the chart? Size of peak, period of time between signals, gradient?

Regards,
Indieman

[keyboard] 02/4/2001 13:38

doctorbird, Have a look at the ARI board. I would be interested in your conclusions re LNX.

[doctorbird] 01/4/2001 15:36

Re. my posts of 19.03 and Beazer. The 21d,12,12 Coppock for this was still intact and rising at the month end of 27th March, it did not keel over as I had thought it might.
FTSE 100 and the Coppock. Starting at October 1987 there has been a remarkably consistent 2 year cycle of peaks and troughs mostly occurring near the beginning of the year such that the peaks(sell) are in the even years and troughs(buy)are in the odd years.
SELL 14.10.87
BUY 30.09.88
SELL 15.01.90
BUY 31.01.91
SELL 20.01.92
BUY 09.10.93
SELL 22.02.94
BUY 10.03.95
SELL 25.04.96
BUY 15.01.97
SELL 30.04.98
BUY 15.07.99
SELL 07.01.00
BUY soon?

Good trading.

[keyboard] 29/3/2001 00:49

doctorbird, I wonder if you could post your thoughts, with relevant graphs and Coppock signals, pertaining to Arriva on the ARI board. I think, Indieman would also be interested in this.

[indieman] 28/3/2001 13:50

Certainly would since I only have 20 months back data.

Indie

[indieman] 28/3/2001 09:02

Thanks Doctorbird,
I'll print this off and get back to you later. My wife needs to use the phone to (justifiably) berate the Inland Revenue; oh joy!

Indie