Schroder Uk Public Private Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 02/3/2021 07:30

Interesting that both IPO and WPCT/SUPP sold down some ON a couple of fundraisings ago.

Assume that higher valuation is on a US listing, the lower if LSE. Govnt trying to get them to list here, but that would be the least good outcome for shareholders. Get it away in US before the bubble bursts, and get it sold. Tho doubt much could be shifted at the higher prices.

Again tho - what do SUPP have beyond ON? ATOM is naff. RUTH is junk (but does have property assets). Benevolent AI is Temasek-backed, at half the previous SUPP valuation. Kymab/Immunocore/dumping the mid-rankers at a 22% discount clears the OD.

And a long tail of rubbish.

ON or nowt.

[chucko1] 01/3/2021 18:22

True, and I think that there are decent chances that it's not at the lower end.

BUT IP is a far better way of playing the same thing. See my previous posts on this issue.

[m_kerr] 01/3/2021 17:13

according to beauhurst, the last fund raising for oxford nanowire was at a valuation of £1.758bn (£84.4m investment for 4.8%). according to analysts in the telegraph article , anything from an IPO valuation of £4.5bn - £16bn is mooted. the trusts £68.7m valuation could be worth anything from £175m - £625m on that basis. taking the lower estimate adds about 10p to NAV, higher estimate adds 60p.

this has been a dog of a fund, but if those figures are accurate things could take a turn for the better.

[spectoacc] 28/2/2021 13:49

Thanks @kooba, ON the biggie for WPCT (sorry, SUPP) - notwithstanding the accuracy of @chucko1's post @829 above.

ST article is a good read, thanks @Jonwig. Some amazing stats in it - yes, Woody had to sell (one of) his houses, but made a £12m profit on it. And Craig Newman, the silent culprit, had at least £33m out of WIM.

Front page of ST Business section has a piece on Monzo's latest successful raise, £75m from backers including Jerry Yang of Yahoo fame, all sounded really great. Until you get a few paragraphs in, & discover it was done at a 40% discount - 40% - to the previous valuation.

What does that say about ATOM? Had in mind a few pence off SUPP's NAV, but it could be more. And ATOM didn't get all they previously said they needed.

It's ON or nowt. And that bundle they dumped at a 22% discount, when not forced sellers, and including much of Immunocore, says everything about the veracity of Link's NAV, even now after multiple write-downs.

Everything has its price - SUPP hit 19p last March - & I'd hope early 40's on a successful ON float. But struggling to see other than a trade - ATOM's getting marked down, Kymab's going, the mid-ranking stuff has been dumped by the kids, the junk (eg IH) is all still there.

HL reckon RUTH 21%, ON 18%, ATOM 15%. If RUTH couldn't make money in a pandemic (they couldn't), and need more cash (as they always will with those overheads), when do shareholders ever see anything back?

[kooba] 28/2/2021 11:26

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/02/28/britain-fights-land-oxford-nanopores-blockbuster-public-float/

[chinahere] 27/2/2021 20:22

Woodford is in total denial.

[jonwig] 27/2/2021 20:18

Woodford's new firm ready to roll, he says:



Strewth.

[cousinit] 24/2/2021 11:40

Interesting to see that Nick Greenwood bought in for MIGO after the Kymab announcement last month and meeting with the management team

[spectoacc] 22/2/2021 12:44

Slowly catching up with the ST, an interesting snippet on ATOM - says they've successfully raised £40m "..From existing investors including Spanish lender BBVA".

Only I recall it was £100m they needed.

Says valuation "..Expected to have slipped from £530m at its last big funding round in 2019".

Quelle surprise. Like RUTH, ATOM isn't one that's going to make SUPP investors their fortune. (Nothing is, but ON is the big juicy float we're waiting for). Would expect a small write-down at next SUPP NAV, conveniently masked by Kymab, Immunocore, & the -22% block sale.

ATOM's float "...Pushed back a year to 2022 or 2023." Or 2024 or 2025?

None of the above will surprise anyone who reads this BB. RUTH will also be interesting, tho I still think they'll go for bank debt - they've got property assets. But another loss-maker needing more cash to survive.

ON need to get a shift on, while the IPO market is so SPAC-tacular.

[spectoacc] 22/2/2021 09:14

@tim3 - from IG's morning review:

"Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have already reached 1.38% , breaking the psychological 1.30% level and bringing the rise for the year so far to a steep 43 basis points. Analysts at BofA noted 30-year bonds had returned -9.4% in the year to date, the worst start since 2013. "Real assets are outperforming financial assets big in '21 as cyclical, political, secular trends say higher inflation," the analysts said in a note. "Surging commodities, energy laggards in vogue, materials in secular breakouts.""


The bottom's been called incorrectly plenty of times, but does feel like money-printing is the new norm.

[tim 3] 21/2/2021 17:00

Thanks SpectroACC

Do you see them rising?

[spectoacc] 21/2/2021 10:47

Have you seen how long the HBOS investigation has gone on for? Think they're waiting for Andy Hornby to grow old and die.

@Jonwig - a lot of good journalism still missing from the Woody story, would like to hear some inside views. Pity that book already almost usurped by Neil & Craig's attempted comeback.

(@tim3 - watch bond yields.)

[tim 3] 21/2/2021 10:02

Porsche194520 Feb '21 - 13:03 - 822 of 823

Thanks.

I agree have had this conversation many times with bears who have been predicting a crash for years.

Bottom line money has to go somewhere and the real threat to markets is people taking money out of the market because of better returns elsewhere which with interest where they are and no sign of increasing any time soon looks unlikely to happen at least for now.

As has happened for many years now the UK has underperformed the US on the upside yet seems to drop just as much when US drops.I don't see any reasons for that changing.

Unbelievable that the FCA have been investigating Woodford for 20 months now with no sign of an outcome.

[jonwig] 20/2/2021 20:01

Look out for publication, in a couple of weeks’ time, of "Built on a Lie", the ‘inside story’ of Woodford’s rise and fall by FT journalist Owen Walker.

[porsche1945] 20/2/2021 13:03

2tim

The US market may well correct but that’s just normal, I dont see a crash while liquidity is so huge, the reason why the US market has done so well is the massive liquidity which is really the only thing that drives markets, the U.K. market has little liquidity because we had austerity for years under Cameron then the brexit fiasco which put off foreign investment, they were sucking out liquidity as they sold U.K. and bought elsewhere, the U.K. trades at a 30pc discount to other markets because of all this and that isn’t going to change, brexit has been an unmitigated disaster juicing problems the U.K. already had, just stick to your S&P trackers and buy more on any healthy pullback and you wont go wrong, avoid cxxp like this and ftse 350 in general.

[kooba] 19/2/2021 10:54

Well here's an interesting piece just out on Acacia where I think there is some overlap in holdings, notably ONT.Now this seems an extremely aggressive piece valuation wise imho but might interest some. It also underlines the carpet bagging nature of the acquisition of these holdings many spun out very quickly but this outfit have made tens of Ms on the Woodford carve up ( with his help by the looks of it ) though I think one has to blame Link more than the buyer but this is very much salt in the wounds.The current management here have also sold ONT ..maybe because they were bid rather than for management reasons but there is still a decent holding. If you extrapolate this guys valuation ( which I think is stretched!) then it would have a rather large impact on the NAV.DYORhttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4407247-acacia-research-corporation-next-generation-genomic-sequencing-at-a-bargain-price

[spectoacc] 19/2/2021 09:58

I had it 18% down, but many variables. Link have still made a mess of it, but they should have fired WIM sooner, not later.

Some good photos of the new office here (linking to a firewall FT piece):

[dr biotech] 19/2/2021 08:00

Telegraph stabs Woodford in the back...and front.

They reckon WEIF would be 10% down on the gated prices.

Last line “ We have written about Neil Woodford once more, but this time in a plea to you, our readers, never to hand over any of your savings to this man ever again. His shoulders are weak, his ideas are wrong and I guarantee you that the “safe pair of hands” will want to line its own pockets before yours.”

[cc2014] 18/2/2021 12:12

Another mess watched over by Andrew Bailey.

[chucko1] 18/2/2021 11:48

The FCA have to be dragged kicking and screaming to do what is right. Or, they jump on a popular bandwagon and over-compensate. Regulation is very political (far worse in the US, but they have far better regulators - though some of them overly evangelical, bordering on deranged).

[jonwig] 18/2/2021 11:44

Yes, that was mentioned in both Times and FT.
The FCA seem to be bent on preventing him from managing money under any circumstances.
Play tough as catch-up!