Schroder Uk Public Private Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 11/1/2021 08:06

Kymab, in fairness to Schroder Juniors the only one they've added to, presumably by buying former WEIF's stake on the cheap, is getting bought out. This wasn't even in my "mid-30's" guess, so have added this morning, in numerous trades below 30p.

Edit - "..A significant portion.." of the £65m proceeds going to go against the OD. I reckon they'll halve it.

[spectoacc] 08/1/2021 13:01

"...SUPP, formerly Patient Capital, deserves an honourable mention. The shares still trade at a 44% discount to net assets of £417m. Schroders has now spent a year cleaning up the mess, but manager Tim Creed sees light at the end of the tunnel. "There are some companies that are really good", he says, "and some that could be great". This requires time-consuming active involvement, helped by Creed no longer being a forced seller. SUPP should turn out to be not so much a Cinderella as a phoenix".


Max King (who really should know better) in a recent MoneyWeek.

Gave me a really good laugh at least. Where to begin..


1. Dishonourable mention, surely?

2.. 44% discount to net assets indeed. £10m more was coming off as he wrote that (Ombus). Write-down & dilution to come this qtr from Atom (needs £100m min) & RUTH (who may get away with raising debt). And does anyone really still think IH stake is worth £12m?

3. "Schroders has now spent a year cleaning up the mess".
AKA not bought a single new co, and been able to sell very few. OD is down by what, 10%? They sold some ON in a funding round, and a few AUTO, anything else has been minimal.

4. "There are some companies that are really good", he says, "and some that could be great".
There's ON.

5. "This requires time-consuming active involvement..".
See point 3: no it doesn't, because nothing is going on. Which is a good job, since Tim is now very busy it seems at SBO.

6. "..No longer being a forced seller".
He was never a forced seller, and if he was, what did he sell exactly? The OD has never been called in, and it's an IT - no redemption pressure.

7. "..Not so much a Cinderella as...."
The gilded chariot that turned into a pumpkin?


(Whilst this sounds at odds with my guess last month for a return to the mid-30's for SUPP, it isn't really - SUPP going up exactly because people are as ignorant as Max King. That, and a possible ON float, but they'd best get that away before widespread vaccination).

Edit - unclear how Creed's statement about "really good" and "could be great" ties with them having the portfolio substantially rejigged by Q4 this year. Were only meant to be a couple of Woodford stocks left by then. Never remotely realistic but are they back-pedalling already?

Edit #2 - be delighted to hear any counter-arguments, or error-correction, from SUPP fans.

[spectoacc] 06/1/2021 16:07

AUTO only off 6% fwiw, a little under $9, tho well below the $16 highs of 5 months ago.

[spectoacc] 06/1/2021 07:41

Autolus only about 4% now, but is the only liquid co the Schroders Juniors can draw their fee from. Also one of the few "good" co's within SUPP.

Ironic that each time there seems a decent holding (ATOM, AUTO) it turns out not to be quite so good. Hopefully ON won't meet the same fate...

[jonwig] 06/1/2021 07:09

Is Autolus still a portfolio company?
Syncona have just updated on them:



It doesn't read well - cost reductions, management reorganisation.

[chucko1] 04/1/2021 16:29

You don't get it - investment is about managing uncertainty as there is no certainty. Only a fool thinks there is, or interprets other intelligent contributors' thoughts as such.

Because you stalk me so closely (it would seem), you ought to have seen that I do not (and cannot) give advice as risk for one person is different from risk for another person. I can offer an opinion.

"There seems to be very little between these now and 70p.". No one sober would interpret that as a certainty - though a likelihood. Xmas is over, so you ought to stop drinking if that was what set you off.

In the same way, WPCT falling from 80p to 30p was also unlikely but a fall of some meaningful degree was likely at some time. That degree of risk is OK for some, and unacceptable for others. But in any event, it was worth pointing out. Also, the chance of this going to 1-20p is a risk worth pointing out and explaining how that could come about. There are still chances that this will be the eventual outcome and SpectoAcc could hardly have been clearer in the alert. No one is forcing you or anyone else to agree or like the consequences of the outcome.

[chucko1] 04/1/2021 13:38

Kooba, I totally agree with your comments re. Susan Searle. But then, who's really running the show? It's NT and perhaps they simply saw a benefit in continuity as a final outcome was engineered. Continuity could not extend to Woody, however, as that is a bridge too far (far too far, in fact).

The rolling of the NT debt facility and associated conditions is the next interesting thing to observe here.

A few months back, I wrote that 24p was slightly light and would just about be a buyer for choice (though it would involve my head and a gun). I feel that 31p is the opposite - sell for choice.

In any event, why bother with it at all? - the alternatives are massively superior and have continued to move ahead while this one is on a spiral to (and from, in fact) somewhere as yet undefined.

[1tcm1] 04/1/2021 13:15

On the other thread they still think SUPP is being run by the long-departed Woodford. Perhaps they will one day wake up to the truth. No good asking jonwig to post updated accurate information. He has not done so on 'his' SUPP thread and notoriously on the corrupt LIT thread that he controls.

[kooba] 04/1/2021 11:19

Extraordinary that someone with such close links to Woodford as Susan Searle is still Chair , they failed investors in their oversight in the previous management of the fund for many reasons yet she is still in place overseeing Schroeder's , who don't seem to be doing a lot !

[harijan] 04/1/2021 11:16

spectoacc in his long-winded panic-filled posts on the other thread does not explain how he got SUPP all wrong and lost ALL his money on SPCC.

[chuckol] 04/1/2021 11:03

Ouch, fabulous post by johnwig on the corrupt thread!

[spectoacc] 04/1/2021 10:56

And to think Woody was arrogant enough to do it with gearing! And that's before getting to selling WEIF unlisteds on to WPCT/SUPP - still don't know how the Board waved that through at a supposedly independent IT.

[kooba] 04/1/2021 10:51

Could be argued Woodford as with AM spent many years propping up their own values without being able to bring in substantial new investors and there was always going to be a day of reckoning when they couldnt put more in.

[johnwig] 04/1/2021 10:51

Was all this repetitive dross by specto (704) written by the same man as is predicting 0p-20p? Or is he allowing himself, with jonwig's acquiescence and having suffered a humiliating blow to his solar plexus, to change his stupid prediction absolutely at will?

I have a theory. Apart from being a little bit thick, perhaps specto is dyslexic. Ponder on the literal similarity between SUPP and SPPC. Two Ps and an S in both acronyms. It looks to me as if the bewildered bore has got the two trusts totally conflated. (Familiar territory, eh, jonwig?) That has led to his catastrophically incorrect predictions on both securities repeated ad nauseam on many threads.

I think my theory is reinforced by his inexplicable tendency, even in his latest effort, to carry on making predictions, seven in all. I cannot recall any prediction in all his countless thousands of posts ever having come true.

[spectoacc] 04/1/2021 10:39

Could easily go down a rabbit hole with RUTH but this quote from your link about sums up this c.£350m co:

"In the six months to 31 August 2020 revenue at the business rose up 43 per cent to £3.575m compared to the first half of the previous financial year."

But I've also said all along, if Woodford fans were going to lose their money (which they were), far better it be on cancer treatment centres than eg microchipped pallets, biotech frauds (Northwest Bio), or mattresses-by-post (EVE).

And RUTH does have substantial property, so it's never likely to be a zero, and a 2-year NHS deal during Covid that's meant to cover their costs. That they still can't turn a profit, still need more money, and have expenses of c.£8m (@Jonwig will correct me) proves the need for a writedown.

[kooba] 04/1/2021 10:33

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/national/revenue-and-patient-growth-at-rutherford-despite-covid-impact"Cashflow forecasts have been prepared to support the going concern assumption, and these include short term revenue growth and additional equity or debt investment which may not materialise."Looks like a good business to be in but is cash hungry as they roll out clinics.At this stage a funding by equity or debt could prove costly if you can't participate ..any new investors will not be protecting existing equity holders who cant participate.

[kooba] 04/1/2021 10:20

Good summary ..the problem will be selling more ONT because it's the only one they can sell and concentrating on the stuff they can't ...errm, I think I've seen that scenario very close to home to this !

[spectoacc] 04/1/2021 10:13

Got the impression from RUTH that they may raise via debt rather than equity, but ATOM needs £100m before April, and SUPP will be supplying none of that & getting diluted. ATOM at least have other large investors, and maybe that will stop dilution being too great - tho if they're crafty, they'll do it via loan notes & extract value that way.

Considering SUPP is basically RUTH, ON, ATOM, and a long tail of mainly dross, there's only really ON to pay off the c.£100m OD.

(Benevolent supported by Temasek and is 8% of SUPP; Immunocore 6%, but then quickly into the 3% & below holdings).

I still think it'll go mid-30's tho - not based on SUPP holders ever seeing any money back, but based on Greater Fool Theory, CLIG going to a suspicious 10% (EGM level), and that other stakebuilder. As well as even just rumours of the ON float.

Worth remembering that SUPP previously sold down some of ON in a funding round, and assume they'd sell the lot given a good opportunity.

As said above, even with a blockbuster ON flotation that pays the OD down to zero, you're left with a mighty iffy and even more concentrated portfolio. Just don't see how the Schroders boys can achieve their "completely different" holdings by Q4 this year. Credit to them if they do, but - they won't ;)

[kooba] 04/1/2021 10:05

Problem is while an ONT float could add decent incremental value over carrying cost there are still other cash hungry holdings that it will be difficult for SUPP to hold corner in any round so could be diluted on bad terms ..Spin looks like that kind of situation.Write downs add up as we have found! I read Rutherford a major holding will need further funding soon.

[spectoacc] 04/1/2021 09:43

ALM my largest holding & Federated/Spin are indeed within the depths of SUPP, as you say @kooba. Federated will come good IMO, but if it goes for 2x, 3x, even 5x the last funding round, it'll be only a rounding error for SUPP.

In fairness, should it flop/Spin flop too, both would make little difference to SUPP. All about a 2021 ON float...

[kooba] 04/1/2021 09:37

Update on a couple of holdings in the fund from Allied Minds strategic review today...Spin memory not one of the largest holdings but not looking positive , more upbeat on Federated wireless.