Schroder Real Estate Inv... Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 02/2/2022 22:03

Everyone needs to be topping up here whilst they can these levels won't be around forever imo

[nickrl] 02/2/2022 18:48

Sky my take is we ought to get 8-10% uplift on industrial worth about 4 to 4.5% towards NAV and maybe 3-4% on retail add another 0.5 to 1% on NAV with no contribution from offices so 4.5-5.5% range or 68.8 to 69.4 is my pitch.

[shieldbug] 02/2/2022 17:37

Thanks for sharing that Skyship. Nice margin of safety.

[chucko1] 02/2/2022 16:17

It's looking that way, but it seems to mean nothing to the continuing seller(s).

[skyship] 02/2/2022 15:58

Well, re that next update - c15th Feb...

SLI's stats today showed another 8.5% rise in NAV.

Let's look at the stats for SLI v. SREI

......SLI........SREI
QI....+4.0%.......+2.7%
Q2....+3.5%.......+4.1%
Q3....+5.4%.......+4.6%

Q1-3..+13.5%......+11.9%

So SREI's rise in 1st 3 quarters = 88% of that recorded by SLI

If we get 88% of SLI's figure for Q4, SREI NAV will rise 7.5% to 70.7p

Viewing recent returns elsewhere I'm increasingly happy with my earlier 69.4p estimate; in fact that may well prove conservative.

At 54.3p - given 69.4p NAV; discount = 21.8%
At 54.3p - given 70.0p NAV; discount = 22.4%
At 54.3p - given 70.7p NAV; discount = 23.2%

[2wild] 28/1/2022 16:30

Added a few more at 54.895p ahead of the next update.

[speedsgh] 27/1/2022 07:57

You may be right. Open to interpretation, I suppose. On reflection Picton don't seem the type to keep bleating about their aspirations to grow via M&A. I think they are most likely to now be working quietly in the background on it. They've put it out there in the last few months so peers will be aware of it.

[skyship] 27/1/2022 07:48

That reads to me like routine property acquisitions rather than M&A...

[speedsgh] 27/1/2022 07:40

And another mention of Picton's acquisition aspirations in the rns...

"We are encouraged by the momentum in our asset management pipeline and our focus is on growing income and value further during 2022, through leasing and acquisition activity."

[my retirement fund] 27/1/2022 07:27

Hopefully will help others see the value here

[speedsgh] 27/1/2022 07:24

Picton has released an update this morning. 7.4% increase in NAV to 112.8p. Quarterly dividend reinstated to pre-Covid level of 0.875p (3.50p annualised).

LfL valuation changes:
Industrial 10.4%
Offices -0.6%
Retail 3.3%

Net Asset Value as at 31 December 2021 -

[chucko1] 24/1/2022 11:44

55 offer of Thursday has now become 56 bid.

[skyship] 24/1/2022 09:46

BREI's Q4'21 Update shows:

# Industrials/Logistics: + 12.8%
# Retail Warehouse: + 5.7%
# Office S.E.: +0.4%
# Office Regional: - 5.3%

That first figure pretty exceptional and not a direct read across bearing in mind AEWU Update & CBRE stats. Still, I reckon we may still be on for my 69.4p!

[chucko1] 20/1/2022 08:48

So 4% overall uptick in valuations here would indicate circa 68.5p NAV. 20% discount will tighten to 10% in due course (a year to be conservative?). This suggests total return of 17.4% over the next 12 months assuming all dividends at 0.726p.

Keen seller remains at 55p which allows a stress-free purchase for the believers!

[skyship] 20/1/2022 07:46

This from AEWU's update this morning:

# 3.49% like-for-like valuation increase for the quarter (30 September 2021 quarter: 3.11%), driven byretail warehousing (like-for-like increase of 6.73%) and industrial (like-for-like increase of 5.16%) sectors.

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 18:59

I hope, and will be well pleased, if you are correct sky.

End of day ut's have been at the upper end for the last few days.

[skyship] 19/1/2022 16:05

I suspect we'll see both BREI & EPIC next week.

[spectoacc] 19/1/2022 15:56

Expecting BREI to be top performer again this time round - industrial still going gangbusters.

Should hear from them all over next 3 weeks.

[cwa1] 19/1/2022 15:52

Best to manage expectations to the low side SKY. Under promise and over deliver ;-)

[skyship] 19/1/2022 15:30

fly - 67p!!! That's a mere 1.82% increase...I do hope you've undercooked that one...

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 14:11

Last few years have been from 31/01 to 17/02.

I am at 67p.

[chucko1] 19/1/2022 13:52

Remind me - when do they announce?

[skyship] 19/1/2022 13:44

Well, let's take a guess.

I'll go for a relatively conservative 69.4p. At 54.4p the discount would then be up to: 21.6%

Hopefully I've pitched too low!

[spectoacc] 19/1/2022 13:41

I've fallen behind a bit on SREI. There was the industrials acqns in November, they won't show uplift yet (will have a 5% SDRT cost attached).

Earnings/collection/vacancy should all be sound, subject to the usual Offices drag.

65.8p last NAV, up 5.4p since end-March. So I'll go 68.6p, with more ahead.

Think that's the key thing with these REITs - NAVs aren't just rising strongly, they're rising consistently.

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 13:31

The upcoming trading update should reflect a rise in industrial values, a planning approval, an acquisition and some rent reviews.

What nav is expected ?