Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:52

Gazza - 17 Oct 2016 - 10:32:35 - 6981 of 10801 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
Lozza,
>By the way, it is not for me, to burden myself with the task, of 'educating' you.<<br />
Really? So what has been the point of all your sage posts these past 5 years? Are you not expecting the ignorant (like me) to listen and heed your pearls of wisdome thereby "educating" oneself?

If that is not your goal then I respectfully suggest you SHUT UP

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:51

hey Loz he loves you ........

Gazza - 30 Sep 2016 - 23:40:39 - 6877 of 10799 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
My first thought was that lozan-ger had hit the grog early but *ONE* has to factor in the FACT that le France is one whole "heur" unne tete.
The prospect of a respectable incorporated establishment having links (that need to be BROKEN) with trippers is absurd. Are you really so devoid of anything meaningful to say that you have to peddle this utter tripe?

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:49

Ouch ! loz

just what i have been saying ........


Gazza - 11 Oct 2016 - 11:31:20 - 6940 of 10799 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
Lozza, oh I get it now. Your wrath directed at certain parties is down to your ill-judged actions. I had for a long time suspected as much but good of you to confirm once and for all.

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:47

wonderful stuff

Gazza - 08 Jun 2016 - 14:39:31 - 5861 of 10797 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
BS, I think you make some good points. Perhaps it could be like the very bright underperforming kids get a hard time from the teachers because more is expected of them. I too have dabbled in IMM and SAR but for me, they don't have the appeal of SCLP, the results are "compelling". The opportunity to make money is there on many shares though so each to his own.

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:45

hey Loz

Gazza - 21 Jun 2016 - 10:23:18 - 6044 of 10797 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
The only real issue is whether lozza will be sent home if we exit. I'm voting remain!

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:43

Tosh

History of the poster,

all to see

your left with "freebies with an average"

wonder if Gazza would comment on that

[the real lozan] 22/8/2017 13:42

Gash -
If you were to ask HIM to 'Go Away" { Which is not necessary }
Everyone would understand what you really mean.

[tosh123] 22/8/2017 13:41

Ineptico accusing others of having a bad memory hahahaha... how many times have i told you about the most basic of English = Your - you're... and to - too.... yet still you cant remember to use the correct tense.... Brilliant.... also
You used the word " Proven " in a post or two, yet miraculously, now pretend that you forgot you said it, and that was only a few days ago ! and now refuse to pick up the challenge... this is brilliant stuff.

Gazza, a great and very balanced post which pretty much sums up my thoughts. Huge potential upside, but massive risk. Buy and sell on peaks and troughs until parity has been achieved, well done sir.

Don't listen to the LIAR, he just makes stuff up and then runs away like a little girl when challenged.
His credibility here = Zero, and his credibility on the other place = Zero.
C7 is now running the show, fully aware of what Ineptico has been proven himself to be.

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:40

see just a small movements cause big changes

Melanoma Total Market = $2bn rising

welcome to 2017

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:38

Gazza ? can't you remember any of this ???

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:38

Gazza - 18 Jan 2016 - 10:47:12 - 4467 of 10791 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
Inanaco, projected values using 45% of total market....

Assumptions:

£100M raised through the issue of an additional 450m shares
Melanoma Total Market = $2bn rising to $5.6bn by 2023
SCIB1 acquires 45% of total market
SCLP make a 15% net profit
Scancell is valued at 15 times earnings
Based on £1=$1.5 the share price would be:

2018 £3.32
2019 £3.83
2020 £4.42
2021 £5.11

Those numbers look quite mouthwatering but can we realistically forecast that a small bio with zero sales can grab 45% of the entire world melanoma treatment market in a few years? I hope we can, but I expect not.

Let's split the difference and go 30% market share....

2018 £2.21
2019 £2.55
2020 £2.95
2021 £3.40

I'll settle for £3.40 for when I retire.

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:29

Gazza22 Aug '17 - 12:57 - 10781 of 10789 2 0
To All,
Re: Post 10761 (Inanaco)

Please be aware that I wish to distance myself from any reference to me in any post from Inanaco. He seems to throw my name in in order to try and add a modicum of credibility to his posts (straws at clutching springs to mind)


oh !!

Gazza - 11 Jan 2016 - 16:17:02 - 331 of 751 Could this be the end of cancer? - SCLP
Inan, I agree, no reason why they should not succeed. And I am happy to hold what I have in the pension. I retire in 2021 so this is what I am hoping for:

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:26

so in discussions with me Gazza you have already raised your predictions

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:26

Gazza - 11 Jan 2016 - 16:17:02 - 331 of 751 Could this be the end of cancer? - SCLP
Inan, I agree, no reason why they should not succeed. And I am happy to hold what I have in the pension. I retire in 2021 so this is what I am hoping for:

(25% Mkt share, 16% net profit PE of 17)

Year MelanomaSCLP SCLP SCLP SCLP
Market Market Net Mkt Cap SP
$M $M Profit $M £
2016 2061 515 82 1,401 1.38
2017 2379 595 95 1,618 1.60
2018 2746 686 110 1,867 1.84
2019 3170 792 127 2,155 2.13
2020 3659 915 146 2,488 2.46
2021 4223 1,056 169 2,872 2.84
2022 4875 1,219 195 3,315 3.27
2023 5627 1,407 225 3,826 3.78

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:24

Gazza - 11 Jan 2016 - 15:34:59 - 319 of 751 Could this be the end of cancer? - SCLP
The following are based on the estimated Melanoma market rising to $5.6Bn by 2023. Assuming Scancell get a 15% market share, make 15% net profit, are valued at 15 x PE and there are 675m shares in issue following the fund raising:

Year MelanomaSCLP SCLP SCLP SCLP
Market Market Net Mkt Cap SP
$M $M Profit $M £
2016 2061 309 46 696 0.69
2017 2379 357 54 803 0.79
2018 2746 412 62 927 0.92
2019 3170 475 71 1,070 1.06
2020 3659 549 82 1,235 1.22
2021 4223 633 95 1,425 1.41
2022 4875 731 110 1,645 1.62
2023 5627 844 127 1,899 1.88

Note, this is only for Melanoma (SCIB1). I can out any other scenarios into the model if you would like me to rework them.

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:22

The following are based on the estimated Melanoma market rising to $5.6Bn by 2023. Assuming Scancell get a 15% market share, make 15% net profit, are valued at 15 x PE and there are 675m shares in issue following the fund raising:

Year MelanomaSCLP SCLP SCLP SCLP
Market Market Net Mkt Cap SP
$M $M Profit $M £
2016 2061 309 46 696 0.69
2017 2379 357 54 803 0.79
2018 2746 412 62 927 0.92
2019 3170 475 71 1,070 1.06
2020 3659 549 82 1,235 1.22
2021 4223 633 95 1,425 1.41
2022 4875 731 110 1,645 1.62
2023 5627 844 127 1,899 1.88

Note, this is only for Melanoma (SCIB1). I can out any other scenarios into the model if you would like me to rework them.

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:18

i will look your posts ...

but already finding things like .....


Gazza - 14 Oct 2015 - 22:14:57 - 3209 of 10785 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
It is, shame you cant work out wether tosh et al are shareholders even with the benefit of hindsight lol.

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 13:10

Gazz, you have poor memory ... more than happy to have dig into the history for you

still base today's numbers on the Hardman report of the value of the melanoma market, be it adjuvant or combo

ie the $4b market

at £1.44 a share ?

[the real lozan] 22/8/2017 13:06

Gash - well said... and interesting words/ thoughts to follow.
By the way ,
Clear blue skies 38+ C in the sun
32.8 C in the shade
.
Is a September visit to your son 'On The Cards"' ???
If so .... ENJOY

[tosh123] 22/8/2017 13:04

great post Gazza.

[gazza] 22/8/2017 12:57

To All,
Re: Post 10761 (Inanaco)

Please be aware that I wish to distance myself from any reference to me in any post from Inanaco. He seems to throw my name in in order to try and add a modicum of credibility to his posts (straws at clutching springs to mind)

I cannot recall predicting £6 but if I did, I am sure he will devote the required hours in digging out the post. In any event, most sensible people adjust their view in the light of the most recent data, to drag up comments from 4 years ago or even last week don't really amount to much.

For the record, here I my current thoughts on SCLP possible valuation:

I did some calculations a while back based on market value (melanoma treatment), profitability and market share. Came up with a figure of £1.44. This of course assumes that the product works, gains full FDA approval and is bought to market. This in turn requires funding. Should a big (or not so big) pharma want to buy an entity with the potential of reaching £1.44, I expect they would want a 50% discount (conservatively) and I would expect my share to be bought out for 72p. Alternatively, Scancell will need to raise funds so I would expect a 50% dilution. This too would realise me 72p per share.

If the drug never gets to market (trials fail or funds cannot be raised) then I expect not to get much I my money back, if any. I have weighed up the risks and that is a risk I am prepared to take. Not everyone will, everyone is different.

What about SCIB2 and MODI? The risk here, is that even if SCIB1 is successful, the revenue (sale or profits) from it will be used to fund SCIB2/MODI so you have two chances of failure.

Of course, these markets can be driven by sentiment alone. I wonder how many pople piling in over the last 2 days have analysed the potential return and risks? If we compare to 5 years ago (when I first bought in) - in July 2012 I was buying between 11.95 and 13.25. Within a month, I was selling (some) at 40p and in just under 3 months 55p (selling). Perhaps a similar pattern will happen now, all it takes are a few bits of good news. We may, one day make £6 but a lot needs to happen before then so expect to wait a few years.

Hope that clarifies my position. AOMHO, ATB

[tosh123] 22/8/2017 12:55

Now please jog on... you're too stupid to post anything that doesn't constitute a LIE, and im so bored of your uneducated nonsense.
No credibility.

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 12:54

Tosh ...

your in cuckoo land with Loz ....

[inanaco] 22/8/2017 12:52

out comes Mr No shares

[tosh123] 22/8/2017 12:52

You havnt played with either myself or Loz, you've played with other poor folks money, and LOST IT.... We're both fine.

and for the last time you uneducated moron, its not " your to stupid " its ......
" you're too stupid ".... Goldfish !