Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[marcusl2] 02/2/2024 16:35

BMS

We are using their doublet in Scib-1 Melanoma, Modi-1 Renal Cell Carcinoma and possibly more in the future.

[marcusl2] 02/2/2024 13:26

If iScib+ works I am confident Scancell gets a massive deal.

That is not even mentioning Avidimab, Glymabs and of course Moditope.

[markingtime] 02/2/2024 11:47

We don't need hundreds. We just need one.

[supernumerary] 02/2/2024 10:36

And even when they are, they're not usually dollars but the infamous 'biobucks'!

[bermudashorts] 02/2/2024 10:18

Ruck,

..............and therein lies the old problem of expectations versus reality. There really aren't hundreds of preclinical companies doing billion dollar deals.

[ruckrover] 02/2/2024 09:04

So how come hundreds of PRE-CLINICAL companies are doing billion dollar deals when Scancell can't even after 14 years of Phase1/2 trial?I know one of Richard Goodfellow's greatest achievements was "managing to avoid deals" but I never realised just how good he was at it!

[marcusl2] 02/2/2024 08:54

Deal hungry Merck

Davis reiterated that Merck is interested in deals between $1-15 billion, with the $10 billion-plus range being the sweet spot. The likes of Prometheus and Acceleron fell in this range and that's “still the size of deals we are very interested in,” he said. For comparison, Merck’s foray into T-cell engagers through last month’s Harpoon buy cost the biotech $680 million.

[bermudashorts] 01/2/2024 15:47

Note that clinicaltrials.gov has been updated to show that Southampton are now recruiting for the SCOPE trial, but still not updated with iSCIB1+ amendment.

[nigelpm] 01/2/2024 13:36

I'm sure they'll work through it in the best way for the business and shareholders and don't really need people on a forum explaining how and when it can be done.

[serratia] 01/2/2024 13:28

Totally agree, I've seen small companies with disruptive tech sign exclusives then nothing happens. They could of course add a clause - you've got x months to launch then it reverts if no action.

[octopus100] 01/2/2024 13:23

Don't think its a good idea to do an exclusive deal and also they should def sign a performance deal with the company - as its not unheard of pharma companies to sign a deal with a smaller company and then drag out the project - whilst their main product which it competes again carries on raining in the money. Good way to knock out the competition.

[inanaco] 01/2/2024 08:13

just paid 11.9 after 5 mins of trying to buy £2k

[sci102] 31/1/2024 20:28

SCIB1 also has orphan drug designation (7 years exclusivity) with countdown starting after marketing authorisation which ameliorates the issue.

[marcusl2] 31/1/2024 19:41

A good point from Bermuda. Equally Scib-2, Scib3 could go down the `with CPI' patent route although if as expected iScib+ works as well or better then it`s not as big a problem.

I believe that Avidimab can do the same for many blockbuster antibodies and vaccines coming to a patent cliff.

Bermudashorts

Thanks - definitely worth listening to again. Lindy was very precise, the new patent application is for SCIB1 with checkpoints. Probably the single most important detail from the whole presentation for me. The short patent life of SCIB1 is an issue that hasn't really been discussed but was always there in the background. It wasn't just the impact on the valuation of SCIB1 but also essentially meant that the whole future of the ImmunoBody platform relied on successful results from the iSCIB1+ cohort of patients. This new patent application means that Scancell are not totally dependent on iSCIB1+ and it also could have relevance for the timing and valuation of any potential partnership deals.

[markingtime] 31/1/2024 18:15

...5 parties indicates a minimum of 5 deals under discussion. A minimum.

[markingtime] 31/1/2024 18:11

33p per share, based on "overly conservative" assumptions?Its a damned good job we have some large, well-informed, shareholders because (if Lindy's comments are anywhere near accurate) there must be a high chance of attracting a bidder against a background of a share price that is simply wrong. I'll be surprised if the share price is below 33p by year end (a market cap of about £340mn)

[nigelpm] 31/1/2024 16:28

Trinity note - absolutely nothing in revenue for 24 or 25 which seems an oversight?

[marcusl2] 31/1/2024 13:56

Updated valuation of £304m, equivalent to 33p per share



The current limited visibility means we have adopted conservative assumptions, arguably overly so, regarding market sizes and growth rates, net pricing, adoption curves, and peak market penetration. This leaves the potential for future upside if progress materialises as management expects. There are a number of likely catalysts expected over the next 12-18 months, notably data for both SCIB1/iSCIB1+ and Modi-1, with successful outcomes likely leading to upward revisions to our valuation.

[marcusl2] 31/1/2024 13:50

Confirmed, we will investigate Modi-1 in renal cancer in combination with
ipilimumab (Yervoy®) plus nivolumab (Opdivo®) checkpoint inhibitors.

Same as Scib-1

The number of patients who have experienced long periods of stable disease following monotherapy with Modi-1 is encouraging and similar to the response rate with SCIB1 monotherapy in advanced disease.
The Company believes that combination therapy with checkpoint inhibitors, could further improve outcomes
for this patient group.

[marcusl2] 31/1/2024 13:46

If MHRA let us use CPIs with Modi-1 in Ovarian

USD 2,444 million in 2022

head and neck cancer market reached a value of US$ 3252.3 Million in 2023

TNBC USD 1.3 billion in 2022

melanoma USD 3.99 billion in 2023

[marcusl2] 31/1/2024 13:13

So maybe nivolumab (Opdivo) in combination with ipilimumab (Yervoy; ipi/nivo) and Modi-1

Worldwide, there are over 400,000 new cases of RCC and over 170,000 deaths annually due to kidney cancer.Renal cell carcinoma represents around 3% of all cancers, with the highest incidence occurring in Western countries.

According to Clarivate Disease Landscape & Forecast, major-market sales of RCC drugs in 2023 are estimated to total US$8.1 billion, with the majority share held by pembrolizumab ($2.2 billion), cabozantinib ($1.8 billion) and nivolumab ($1.3 billion).

[sci102] 31/1/2024 13:01

Ah you meant antibody deals. We can't predict that, could be happening as we speak or it could be in Q3.

[sci102] 31/1/2024 12:36

It was 5 initially but if you check, 2 are inactive, 2 are slightly ahead (preclinical) and 1 at discovery phase. 3 x circa 200M eq about 600M which is what SC said. As far as SCOPE timelines, I would be delighted to see a deal in Q3 but the company said they'd be happy to make one during phase 2/3 which I don't see initiating before Q4 with first data to justify a deal in Q1/Q2 2025. If it goes that way I'll personally be very happy but, hey, even happier if earlier than that.

[chilltime] 31/1/2024 11:39

The relevant person was appointed to the role specifically on business management and deals.

That was near 5 months ago. Scancell had already declared interest for deals.

It was only yesterday that it was clarified to be 5, some seeking exclusivity.

So it’s not a recent change but has likely been going on for near 6 months or more for some.

The other factor of course is interim updates on progress. End estimates have been given for the full patient efficacy indications, but targets (EG 70%) may be surpassed earlier with remaining results an extra boost.

Indeed as time goes on, if 85% response rates continue, the 90% factor of likely success will increase, as each result comes in.

[chilltime] 31/1/2024 11:24

Just of note on some opinions.

Further deals and timelines.

We knew they had interest but now know it’s 5.

I took the business management appointment that side last year, to indicate a need for someone with the right experience to manage and negotiate deals.

Now it’s obvious as to why they were appointed.

Some posters hope for a deal as late has Q3.
I personally think that’s a tad pessimistic and won’t be surprised to see one at least, within a month or two.