Savannah Res. Share Price (SAV)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Savannah Res.	LSE:SAV	London	Ordinary Share	GB00B647W791	ORD 1P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	-0.15p	-2.80%	5.20p	970,535	11:39:14
Bid Price		Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price
5.00p		5.40p	5.35p	5.20p	5.35p

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Mining	0.0	-2.8	-0.5	-	33.20

Related Shares
Rio Tinto (RIO), Glencore (GLEN), Arian Silver (AGQ), Mila Resources (MILA)

Savannah Res. (SAV) Latest News (4)

Savannah Res. News

Date	Time	Source	Headline
23/4/2018	18:32	ALNC	Savannah Resources To Up Stake In Mutamba Project, Awaits Mining Lease
23/4/2018	07:36	ALNCF	Alliance News Flash Headline
23/4/2018	07:00	UKREG	Savannah Resources PLC Mutamba Mineral Sands Project, Mozambique, Update
18/4/2018	17:00	UKREG	Savannah Resources PLC Change of Registered Office & Holdings in Company
17/4/2018	13:03	ALNC	Al Marjan Raises Stake In Savannah Resources To 28% With Subscription..
17/4/2018	10:15	UKREG	Savannah Resources PLC Completion of £0.58 million Subscription
13/4/2018	11:17	ALNC	Savannah Resources Loss Widens As It Moves Forward On Projects
13/4/2018	07:00	UKREG	Savannah Resources PLC Implementation of Long-Term Incentive Plan
13/4/2018	07:00	UKREG	Savannah Resources PLC Final Results and Notice of AGM
05/4/2018	08:57	ALNC	Savannah Discovers New High-Grade Lithium Mineralisation In Portugal

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Savannah Res. (SAV) Discussions and Chat

Savannah Res. Forums and Chat

Date	Time	Title	Posts
23/4/2018	14:28	SAVANNAH RESOURCES - Copper, Lithium, THM	608
07/3/2018	14:11	Interview with Savannah Resources	-
21/11/2017	11:19	Savannah Resources INTERVIEW with CEO David Archer	1
20/9/2017	08:08	Savannah Resources (SAV) : CEO invested Ј500k and taking no salary	2,853
05/7/2017	11:55	Directors Talk	-

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Savannah Res. (SAV) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time	Trade Price	Trade Size	Trade Value	Trade Type
14:40:22	5.35	46,355	2,479.99	O
14:00:42	5.30	24,693	1,307.49	O
13:36:06	5.30	32,000	1,694.40	O
13:26:25	5.30	18,660	988.05	O
11:05:27	5.15	31,791	1,637.24	O

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Savannah Res. (SAV) Top Chat Posts

Date	Subject
23/4/2018 09:20	Savannah Res. Daily Update: Savannah Res. is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAV. The last closing price for Savannah Res. was 5.35p. Savannah Res. has a 4 week average price of 5.20p and a 12 week average price of 5.20p. The 1 year high share price is 7p while the 1 year low share price is currently 4.50p. There are currently 638,483,722 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 711,314 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Res. is £33,201,153.54. Read Full Thread Reply
23/4/2018 10:44	ukgeorge: Yes it is always nice to buy under the placing price, just added 29k @5.3p The PEA should be out in the next month or two. Fingers crossed should give the share price a healthy bounce. Cheers George Read Full Thread Follow Reply
23/4/2018 08:25	edgein: Bronco, Not going to set the share price on fire yet, but overall positive. They're moving swiftly towards scoping study and PFS and have applied for the ML for the Moz assets. So that's all moving ahead quite quickly, could hear from the government over there in the next 6 months. They're already planning for full DFS. We've an idea already that there will be some impressive numbers from the PFS, not just from what the company has released historically but also what is currently on their website. Its massive its high grade and Rio Tinto is still working with the company it seems to bring this one towards development. This is world class in scale and with RT's backing funding shouldn't be a massive hurdle as the scoping study numbers are likely to be very large. Gonna be an interesting year for SAV if all goes to plan, due to hear on Portugal soon, now Moz later in the year, probably Q4 when we're due to go into production in Oman. Could be a game changer if all these come in this year. Regards, Ed. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
03/3/2018 21:47	seagullsslimjim: hxxps://www.sharesoc.org/blog/regulations-and-law/beaufort-regulators-us-prosecutors-expose-wide-ranging-scam/ Beaufort and the Regulators: US Prosecutors Expose Wide Ranging Scam News began to emerge yesterday of problems at broker Beaufort Securities. Firstly, the FCA posted this RNS stating that brokerages Beaufort Securities Limited and Beaufort Asset Clearing Services Limited had been placing into insolvency, must cease all regulated activities, and that administrators had been appointed who would seek to protect client assets. Not long after, this indictment by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) came to light, alleging market manipulation in the US by Beaufort Securities and the individual Peter Kyriacou. This announcement of a much broader indictment, naming a further 5 individual defendants and two further corporate defendants, as well as Beaufort and Kyriacou, was then drawn to my attention. These announcements appear to lift the lid on long suspected scams. The nature of the pump and dump scams, set out in the indictments involved: Principals in the scams acquiring microcap shell companies, traded on the US OTC market (but the same modus operandi could apply on AIM), which started out as very illiquid The Principals inserting their own management into those companies, who would issue press releases of “news that’s not really news” at “certain points in time.” Kyriacou allegedy said: “That’s what we need. We need for these smaller cap companies, the problem is…when they initially raise money, the news flow goes dry after, and then the share price starts to trickle down…. You need constant news on these companies.” The indictment goes on to describe “wash trades”, whereby owners of the stock in the subject company use nominees to buy and sell stock to themselves, giving the appearance that the stock is liquid and trading actively (at whatever prices the scammers choose). Remember, if you study trades, that for every apparent buyer there must be a seller. The combination of constant newsflow, promotion via bulletin boards and other social media and apparent liquidity/buying interest entices naïve investors to purchase the stock from the Principals netting the latter a large profit and leaving the former holding the baby when, ultimately, the worthless nature of the subject company is exposed. One sad aspect of this type of scam, which I have observed, is that the naïve investors who have been duped refuse to believe that the company they have invested in is not what they believe it be. Though not part of the scam themselves, they will often attack anyone posting comments suggesting that the subject company may have been “pumped up”, accusing such posters of “deramping”, rather than studying causes for concern carefully. A long list of AIM companies that Beaufort has been involved with can be seen here: https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=1&words=beaufort Whilst the fact of Beaufort’s involvement does not necessarily mean that those companies are not what they appear to be, I would urge any investors or potential investors in them to consider carefully whether the company’s history and track record fits the pattern the indictments have described. It is disappointing, but not surprising to me, that these allegations have only come to light through the work of the US SEC, who conducted a sophisticated sting operation to uncover the alleged nefarious activities of the defendants. Where are the FCA, the AIM regulatory team and the SFO in the UK? As you may be aware, ShareSoc has been running a campaign to improve the AIM market for several years. We have held several meetings with Marcus Stuttard, head of AIM, and principals of the regulatory team. We hope that this exposé by the SEC will act as a wake up call. However, a clear issue which this case highlights is whether these regulatory and law enforcement bodies have sufficient resources to be able to conduct similar operations to uncover perpetrators of such scams and, when they are uncovered, whether the penalties that can be imposed in the UK are sufficient deterrent. I will discuss with my ShareSoc board colleagues what we can do to prompt a parliamentary enquiry into such matters. Mark Bentley Read Full Thread Follow Reply
15/12/2017 11:11	stephen2010: Check out ALBA. Huge multibag potential. ALBA currently trading at 0.39p target price 6p making a nice 15 bagger. Please read the following: MARKET CAP PUZZLE ❖ Alba (market cap £8.4m) is in a resources neighbourhood populated with listed companies with much enhanced market capitalisations, such as UKOG.L (£134m) and JAY.L (£172m). With either shared project interests or adjacent tenements to these companies, Alba should trade at a much higher valuation than its current token value. Like Bluejay, Alba owns 100% of its ilmenite project. Direct comparisons with UKOG are also instructive. While both companies own other projects, UKOG’s 49.9% of Horse Hill Developments Limited (HHDL), when compared to Alba’s 18.1% means that Alba has approximately one third of the value of Horse Hill compared to UKOG but only about 7% of the market capitalisation. Once the market recognises these disparities, the room for growth in Alba’s share price is undeniable. VALUATION RATIONALE - Our valuation in this First Equity Limited initiation note uses a risked valuation approach for Alba’s two main projects, at Horse Hill and TBS. The Horse Hill licences are valued using independent published technical data from Schlumberger, Xodus and Nutech on the oil potential of the licences, along with our own assumptions on recovery rates, oil discovery value, resource and development risks factors. From this a risked value of $127m net to Alba on a ‘Base Case’ basis is derived for Horse Hill. Given the similar geology and economic potential of both TBS and Dundas, we have adopted a risked closeology valuation approach, by computing an NPV for Dundas of $223m and then applying a three-tiered risked probability calculation to arrive at a value of $54.7m for TBS. Once Alba announce its JORC resource and exploration target at TBS and Bluejay its Feasibility Study results, this number is likely to be revised upwards very rapidly, possibly up to $200m, representing up to 7p per share in additional shareholder value. We compute a valuation of $185m (£139m) for Alba, equating to 6.0p per share, of which 4.1p is attributed to the stake in Horse Hill, 1.8p for TBS. Given this analysis and wealth of valuation catalysts anticipated across the project portfolio in the coming months, we recommend the shares as a ‘BUY, with a Target Price of 6.0p, representing a potential 15 times plus uplift from the current share price. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
03/12/2017 00:42	paleje: Yes Ged and I spoke with David after the show, which was recorded and I think sharetalk will publish it. Nothing new was said, it can't be, but David was asked by an investor about the poor share price performance and he acknowledged it and agreed it needs to improve. I asked him afterwards about other European lithium competition in particular EMH and how he saw Portugal in comparison. He said as I suppose you'd expect, he thought Portugal compared we'll and it was quality that counted. He also referred me to European Lithium another oz outfit whose mcap has gone a bit wild lately. He said look at them, see their mcaps both around 50m then look at ours around 35m but we've got Oman and Moz too never mind Finland. I'm not a technical man and I stayed away from the geology but I liked David he's a bloke I'd do business with on a handshake, my wife was with me she liked him too. I don't know at what point the share price will get real but I think it will. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
02/10/2017 07:53	tippow: With Copper set to explode i have Put together some info on #GEO which is well worth researching over the weekend. GEO has £4.5m in cash (enough to take them to production) and BOD have bought £100k's of shares in the open market previously so they are aligned with share holders. "Our twin objectives for 2017 are to report a 3 to 5 Mt copper and gold resource and to commence low cost production to be processed at our JV partner's neighbouring operations. We are on course to meet both objectives..." GEO are looking at proving up 50mt and it looks like that may well be blown out of the water as the resource looks much bigger then originally thought. 50mT at 1% gives 500,000 tonnes of copper. Copper at $3/lb = $6.62/kg=$6,620/tonne 6,620x500,000= $3.31 billion 50% ownership so that become $1.655 billion $=0.75£ $1.655billlion=£1.24 billion Lets assume a modest 50% recovery and a 25% profit margin. 1.24x0.5x0.25=£;155m Even with my ludicrously conservative assumptions and excluding the gold cap, this company is sitting on an asset at 5 x the current share price and production is likely to commenceg in the coming months. John Meyer,twice winner of the UK Smaller Mining Analyst of the Year. He picks Georgian as his top copper pick and describes GEO as "the next SOLG" SOLG market cap is £500m!! John Meyer, analyst at share price Angel, looks at his picks including Glencore, Rio Tinto, Georgian Mining and SolGold. 4.45mins in hxxps://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-videos?CHID=9&SM=TW&REF=IGTV&bctid=5567278253001&bclid=3671160850001 … … … … … … Also previous videos on GEO worth watching hxxps://audioboom.com/posts/5996550-john-meyer-covers-georgian-mining-corp-geo-ortac-resources-otc … … … … … … … hxxps://audioboom.com/posts/6041037-john-meyer-on-solgold-solg-georgian-mining-corporation-geo-21st-june-2017 … … … … … … … hxxps://player.fm/series/the-vox-markets-podcast-with-justin-waite/824-georgian-mining-corporation-geo-and-bonnie-hughes-on-botswana-diamonds-bod … … … … … … … hxxps://audioboom.com/posts/6149837-greg-kuenzel-managing-director-and-martyn-churchouse-technical-director-of-georgian-mining-corporation-geo-27th-july-2017 … … … … … … … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWSzYMTcZKg … … … … … … … This is what is being indicated by the BOD. "Although work to date has focused on three zones as separate areas, recent results suggest that they coalesce to form a large epithermal copper-gold system" Now that would be HUGE!!! "A large epithermal copper-gold system" GEO with its vast resources,no capex outlay for a mine,plenty of cash in hand Leading to a more or less debt free flying start to a rolling income equating to a minimum price target of 60pps+ based on available information with a million ton throughput for copper followed almost at the same time by gold? Is 60pps too conservative in view of the increasing copper and gold prices? we are awaiting in a strong news rich transformational period for the company and await results of the 28 assay results, JV production agreement, production starting date. The project is derisked now. It is going to be mined and no capex needed!! Remember the company have previously described their find as a "world class discovery" John Meyer also said in one of these interviews that " this will be in hundreds of millions if not more" Multibagger in the making here and all very close All thoughts are mine and helped by others posters snipets. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
10/9/2017 12:47	ged5: Sorry Yorkie, there's another one for the filter! You're right Nick there have been some big sells in the latter part of the week. With the sells and the lack of upward movement in the share price one starts to re-evaluate investmennts. A visit to the assets pages on the website quickly reminds you why we are here. 3 tremendous assets in Oman, Mozambique and Portugal, with Finland lurking in the background, presumably waiting for income from at least one of the 3 others. So why any selling? The threat from North Korea is hardly likely to affect a junior explorer, more the main indices. Anyway if it does escalate then flight to safety is hardly an option. Solar flares are affecting satellite communications not mining. Hurricanes and earthquakes are deeply distressing and our prayers and sympathy goes out to all effected but they are not near our assets. In Oman, the Sultan's poor health is a concern and the threat of escalation of the Saudi-Yemeni war is a worry. In Mozambique corruption seems to be on the agenda with an investigation into Credit Suisse and the missing $500M. The countries debt also seems to have been understated. With Madonna now residing in Portugal and Suzy Cortez(Miss BumBum) backing them for the World Cup, what could possibly go wrong there! None of these things should unduly affect the share price. Maybe uncertainty about the interim results which were announced last year in September. No, I don't think so either! The problem with the share price IMO, is that we need more institutional buying. Now I don't know much about the "ins and outs" of institutional buying but if I was a fund manager I would want evidence of mining licences and JORC resources. And that brings us back to the Assets website page. Oman mining licence and resource update could be announced any time. We do have a JORC resource In Mozambique we first need the EIA which is due anytime. Again we have a JORC resource. In Portugal we need the assay results which would then lead to a JORC resource. The irony is that we have the mining licence! So frustrating times for holders, but with several factors, which could influence institutional buying, there is the potential IMO of a significant rise. Giving a time scale, however, is a waste of time since so much is dependent on newsflow. On re-evaluation I am more than happy with my investment and look forward to more prosperous times with SAV. Thoughts anyone? Read Full Thread Follow Reply
08/11/2016 07:50	seagullsslimjim: http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/savannah-res-SAV/share-news/Savannah-Resources-PLC-Initial-3-5-Billion-Tonnes/72854979 Yes, great RNS and only half of the exploration done. Also higher grades when compared to their current heavy sands peer Kenmare!!!... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Initial 3.5 Billion Tonnes HMS Resource Defined Tue, 8th Nov 2016 07:00 RNS Number : 5296O Savannah Resources Plc / Index: AIM / Epic: SAV / Sector: Mining 8 November 2016 Savannah Resources Plc Initial 3.5 Billion Tonnes Heavy Mineral Sands Resource Defined Mutamba Consortium, Mozambique Savannah Resources plc (AIM: SAV) ('Savannah' or 'the Company'), announces an initial resource estimation over two of the four deposits currently defined at the Mutamba project in Mozambique (the 'Project' or 'Mutamba') (Figures 1-4). Mutamba, which was previously operated solely by Rio Tinto, forms part of the larger Mutamba/Jangamo Project currently being developed under a Consortium Agreement between Savannah and Rio Tinto, as announced on 11 October 2016. Savannah holds a 10% interest in the joint project with the right to earn up to 51%, subject to key milestones being met. To view the press release with the illustrative maps, diagrams and JORC Table 1 please use the following link: http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/5296O_-2016-11-7.pdf HIGHLIGHTS: · Initial Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate of 3.5 billion tonnes at 3.8% Total Heavy Minerals (THM) · Mineral Resource Estimate contains 81 million tonnes ("Mt") of ilmenite, 2.2Mt rutile and 3.8Mt zircon · 52% of Mineral Resource in the Indicated Category, 48% in the Inferred Category · Initial resource calculation covers the Jangamo and Dongane deposits at Mutamba - note the Jangamo deposit includes both Rio Tinto's Jangamo deposit and Savannahs Jangamo deposit where an established resource of 65Mt at 4.2% THM was previously defined · Resource compares favourably against Mozambique mineral sands producer Kenmare Resources 31 December 2015 global resource of 6.5Bt at 2.9% THM and mining reserve of 1.6Bt at 3.3%THM · Resource estimation in respect of the Ravene and Chilubane deposits still to be completed · Mineral Resource Estimate of the Jangamo and Dongane deposits has defined large areas of >5%THM, which will form the focus of the upcoming scoping study · A scoping study which is expected to take 3-4 months will commence shortly Savannah's CEO, David Archer said: "The completion of our initial Mineral Resource Estimation of the Jangamo and Dongane deposits is a major milestone for Savannah and our consortium partner, Rio Tinto. The results underscore the fact that the Mutamba project is one of the largest ilmenite dominant, mineral sands accumulations on the east coast of Africa. "While we are delighted with the outcome, what it really means is that we now have an exceptional foundation for our scoping study of the Project. The scoping study will focus on the areas of mineral occurrence which are most prospective in terms of size and grade, with little to no overburden factors, which should facilitate simple, low cost mining. Savannah believes that there is an excellent opportunity to potentially define an initial phase, low capex, long life, dry mining project of around a 200Mt well graded resource, associated with a series of reworked coastal dunes. "The Project is well located with easy access to a power line, the EN1 highway, the Inhambane bay (which is naturally protected from the elements) and the Inhambane airport, providing significant advantages to any potential development. We believe that the Inhambane and Gaza Provinces, where the deposits are located, are an excellent investment destination within the country." Jangamo and Dongane Mineral Resource Estimation The Mutamba Project comprises four main deposits, namely Jangamo, Dongane, Ravene and Chilubane. The initial Mineral Resource Estimation covers the Jangamo and Dongane deposits only, with work now underway on defining the JORC resources for Ravene and Chilubane. The resource being defined at the Mutamba includes the current established resource of 65Mt at 4.2% THM defined at Savannahs Jangamo Project. The two projects together form the unified Mutamba Project being developed by Savannah in conjunction with Rio Tinto. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
25/7/2016 20:17	seagullsslimjim: BORROWED FROM THE OTEHR BOARD - A Great Summary of SAV for newbies looking in and its undeniable potential in the short, medium and long term !......... "I have been scouting investment ideas in Natural resources companies for weeks/months now and I can't find companies with solid fundamentals and great upside from current share prices. There are a few listed minnows trading below cash value (or equivalents), which is attractive, but the liquidity is often very poor and the upside is limited to that cash amount (which happens to burn fast due to directors salaries and other admin costs and lack of growth prospects). So where do we stand with SAV? First the subjective/qualitative part: I have met David Archer several times and I think he is the right type of executive. Calm, humble but focused on the objective. His past record suggests he's been successful multiple times thanks to those attributes. For more info on DA, check out the article from 2008 in The Australian website. The title of the article is �wine hills overflow with miners�. His technical director Dale Ferguson is also top quality with proven successes in the past and a great attitude. Btw, all this talk above might sound abstract or too subjective to be taken seriously but this matters enormously in the end (notice how warren buffett insist on the quality of his managers). So many CEOs & directors in small listed companies only do their job to afford a decent lifestyle and enjoy the upside if the macro momentum helps their share prices (I don't actually blame them as long as they do it legally but for investors, this is often painful). DA is a genuine company builder with a personal interest in generating wealth for himself over the medium term. Now to the objective/quantitative part: HMS in Mozambique: To put it simply: this is potentially huge. A bit of history: Dale Ferguson noticed this company Matilda struggling for cash, seating on this virgin field, adjacent to RioTinto world class Mutamba deposit. He realizes that it is very likely some of the Mutamba deposit might extend into the Jangamo tenement. So he alerts David and they quickly make an approach. After a few surveys and drills, they realize they do indeed sit on a potentially major deposit of their own. As promised, they published a JORC resource before year end 2014 (which due to misunderstanding on the part of some private investors/bloggers disappointed the market), To prove that the Jangamo tenement and the small JORC defined were the real deal, David managed to get Rio Tinto to sign a JV agreement (yet to be approved by the government I know) to join their combined deposit and let Savannah take care of the project. The reason Rio did this deal is to avoid losing their licence after having spent dozen of millions of $ (one needs to keep progressing/spending to maintain ownership of the licence) while focusing on other commodities (iron ore, copper..) for the time being. Note that Rio, at anytime, can kick SAV out of the deal if they wish to.but at a cost. This works as follows (assuming the JV is approved by the govt..could be any time now): Right now, SAV would own 10% of the joint deposit. At this stage Rio can decide to cancel the JV and pay a multiple of the costs we incurred on our Jangamo tenement. My understanding is that it could be worth a few millions USD. To be honest, this would be a very disappointing scenario but I think its almost impossible this happens and if it were to happen, so SAV is left with their Jangamo tenement (as per the current situation) with a few millions USD in the bank account. So we could progress our tenement further (without Rio) or focus the cash on our Omani activities. So it would still be decent situation for SAV to be in but I much prefer staying in the JV for the time being. The reason why I think its almost impossible we get kicked out at 10% stage is because the point of this JV is for Rio to not be involved in the project in the short term. What I think is more likely to happen is that Rio starts to wake up when the nascent recovery in HMS prices materialize further and the project starts to take shape (PFS or DFS stage). And in that case, im OK with SAV getting kicked out ! Heres why: Once we have the government approval, SAV is gonna rush to get a scoping study out. This is likely to take a few months only. At that stage, SAV gains 20% of the JV and the kick-out terms becomes the payback of the NPV of the SAVs share of the JV. My understanding from David is that he wants to focus on developing a mine plan for the first 200mln tonne of very high grade deposit. We are talking about 10%+ grades for the first 100-200mln tonnes. If you have a look at Base resources and the research reports, this is exactly how they did it and this create NPV (net of capex) around $ 400mln. So 20% of $400mln is approx worth 15p/share. I believe this is the worst case scenario ! After the scoping study, we get 35% ownership of the JV once we publish a PFS and then 51% with a DFS. This takes you to a value of 26p/share and 38p/share respectively net to SAV. And this is for the first 200mln tone mine plan. Don't forget the JV has billions of tones at 3-5% grade (as per Rios published data). The entire JV has the potential (very long term) for multi-billion NPVs. Onto copper in Oman: So here is a very different approach, more in line with David and Dales past experience: small, high grade, low capex, quick payback, high IRR. To be clear the Oman copper project is unlikely to ever attract a major mining company. And this is because the total size of the project is irrelevant for the multibillion mcap majors. However, this is amazing economics for the small and medium size companies. And the payback is very quick. As David mentioned several times, he plans to produce before year-end 2017, that is less than 18 months away. We are still waiting for further results from the drilling campaign but David and Dale feel very confident they have enough deposit to produce over 300k tonnes of copper over time (with gold upside). This kind of project can easily generate 50-100mln $ of cash flow per year. SAV retains on average 65% of the ownership of the licences across the blocks. So those cash flows can be quite meaningful to SAV once they kick in (starting end 2017). By assuming the mine will generate $75mln/year and that SAV will lose another third of the project due to dilutive financing (I have good news there too) and that the mine produces for only 7 years, this project would be worth over 20p/share to SAV. Now comes the good news: Since we plan to produce by yearend 2017, it means we need the money for Capex very soon and start developing the mine. We have one major investor in the name of Al Marjan. Now that we have the board members RNS, we realize that those guys are uber influential in Oman business (former minister for industry and former head of chamber of commerce, board member of large commercial bank). I would like to think that they will plan a key role in helping SAV getting the financing for the capex in Oman. This could be in the form of MDO, the new agency in charge of developing non-oil projects to boost the economy or a loan from a commercial bank. This means it is very likely we DON'T lose another third of the project economics. This would make the above numbers (20p./share NPV Oman) too conservative. All the number above assume 400mln Shares (TVR is currently 385mln but there are some warrants/options that would be exercised if we keep rallying). You could be very conservative and round up the share count to 500mln shares (20% extra dilution at Co level). This would make the numbers mentioned above still very attractive(like 17p/share instead of 20p for oman copper and 12p/21p/31p for the first 200mn tone in Moz @ 20%/35%/51% respectively). So as you can imagine I believe the current share price of 4.5p (£17mn mcap) offers amazing value." Read Full Thread Follow Reply
20/10/2015 12:53	swizz: An excellent summary from LVI on LSE......GL S a turning point for SAV (part 1) Created by LeValueInvestor - Today 11:45Today I think 2p (+/-10%) is likely to be the new floor going fwd. The key reason is that we have cash of approx £ 750k (placing + what I estimated was roughly 200-300k of remaining liquidity before that), which should take SAV to Q2 2016. The last 2 placings ( I suspect the first one was with loyal shareholders to enable SAV to buy time while negotiating the bigger placing with strategic local partner) are very high quality relative to what SAV (and most other tiny explorers) usually did (via brokers who manipulate the mkt and dump the stock as soon as they can). The news over the next few months will be very interesting and should ensure that the next time w eneed to raise money, it might be at project specific level (so no dilution at SAV level) or at much higher share price. - we await Moz govt approval on the JV which will allow SAV to publsh a big JORC (we have no control over this approval but I would expect it to happen before year-end). - If so, the JORC will potentially make some positive noise. If this is 1bn+ tones with 3%+ grades (I don’t think we can JORC the full 7-12bn tones Rio indicates just yet), we are talking world class HMS JORC. This will not go unnoticed. - Once we have HMS JORC, SAV can start working on the scoping study. This will be fairly quick (approx 3 months). Remember that scoping study is the first (out of 3) study that will mention the economics of the project (capex, NPV, IRR etc…). This is important because a lot of better –quality brokers will publish on SAV only after the scoping study so they can start extrapolating some kind of valuation based on the project’s economics. My point is that by Q2 next year, we could potentially have respected mining analysts putting valuations on SAV based on world-class HMS deposits/project. My guess is that it will be worth more than £5mln ! a turning point for SAV (part 2) Created by LeValueInvestor - Today 11:48 - On the copper/Oman side, We are awaiting the current drilling results (block 4+5). This should take another 5-6 weeks from now. Based on the VTEM, other producing licences (block 1 – not SAV) and Dale track record in copper mining, we should expect results to be compelling. Once we have those results, we should expect SAV to increase their JORC on block 5 and maybe publish one on Block 4 (extension of Aarja existing mine). - Remember with VMS deposits (im not a geologist but read a few articles on VMS copper), they are small to medium size BUT high grades (cluster). The point being that this can be affordable and high IRR. So the capex numbers required are not crazy amounts and the IRR are abnormally high (think 50%+ as opposed to 20-30% for most other mining projects). So the potential to find financing partners is higher and varied. - Related to the above point, the new local investor might have a role to play there in the future. There have been a lot of articles about how Oman wants to diversify away from oil production and into mining. Having a local instit investor is a step in that direction. I would not be surprised if SAV leverages on this Omani focus to arrange financing on those projects when the time comes. (via partnering with Oman which would help bring foreign investors or via direct financing from Omani entities). It is way too early to speculate more on that but the recent Omani investment is a clear sign of SAV’s closer working relationship with Oman. - Don’t forget that if the copper grades are good at block 4-5, SAV can potentially start producing (which means receiving cashflows) within 2 years (JORC+scoping+PFS+DFS = 18months-2years). Even if VMS deposits are not huge, we are still talking $50-100mln/year cashflows (this is what Block 1 was producing before). All in all, I think SAV is at a turning point. Who knows where the company will be in 3-5 years time (could be a proper midtier copper producer with mcap of 500mln or not !) but over the next 6-9months, It is very possible the market (and especially the mining experts) start valuing SAV closer to £30-50mln Mcap. This means a share price range of 10-20p. For full transparency, I’ve been long SAV for over 18 months so my timing skills are not perfect but I have only been buying more over time and my conviction levels are at its highest currently. Read Full Thread Follow Reply

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