Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[toyin] 15/1/2018 07:17

honestmarty

Why do you say that?

[honestmarty] 14/1/2018 21:06

I know they say all publicity is good publicity,

But Share Prophets?

I feel dirty already, and not in a good way.

[parisv] 14/1/2018 19:56

Savannah Petroleum acquisition looks good value - buy
By Gary Newman | Sunday 14 January 2018

[ifthecapfits] 11/1/2018 12:11

ho, ho, ho - what say you lith?

[paleje] 11/1/2018 09:28

Think you're right Ch1rp, not all at once though so time to add progressively as more positive analysis emerges plus media coverage and interviews. A long upward curve I would think, we're still more than 10% under the insti price and they must have felt chuffed getting that so it's an unusual opportunity for PI's we don't normally get.

Still the taste of the long lock up lingers, I was caught in it too but still took advantage of the discount.

[ch1rp] 11/1/2018 08:20

Surely this is due a massive rerate.

[zengas] 10/1/2018 22:51

Latest subscription article 9th Jan 18 in AEI "Niamey and CNPC champion optimist outlook for oil exports".

States Niger and CNPC aligning their public stance. Cheng Cunzhi CEO of CNPC assured AEI feasibility assessments for pipeline layout in final stages. Niger oil minister wants these presented in early 2018.

CNPC have 'committed $1-$2b for infrastructure to which will be added a further $2b for upstream ops.'
Minister says this will help CNPC resume exploration in the North of the country (Bilma block).
Quote "very rosy outlook" given previous obstacles re cost and low prices and security.

Chad Doba-Kiribi link supposedly shelved before (but AEI wrong before given improvement in oil prices since 2015). The other two options are to Cotonou in Benin and Kaduna in Nigeria.

[diversification] 10/1/2018 18:53

Rampair, for what it is worth I agree with your observation and investment. I am currently under what but have big expectations for this share

[rampair] 10/1/2018 18:12

A move in the direction of the placing price of an already good looking deal.
All 12 items voted through and It looks as though people are reconsidering.

I am new to this company, so don’t carry the baggage of having been suspended etc etc.

Have been around long enough to have been on the other side of the deal though, I’ve sold out because I was angry previously & sometimes not regretted it!

In this case though, there is an opportunity. Look at the presentation.

Clearly, not advice. Wish all new and old holders well (at least 3!..wells)

R.

[trulyscrumptious] 10/1/2018 15:56

That's brilliant!

[pembury] 10/1/2018 15:12

Divi circa 3% not too shabby!

[trulyscrumptious] 10/1/2018 15:08

Yes, this is too good an opportunity to miss. Ok, there is always risk in anything but they seem to have got most of the bases covered. I doubt the dividend will be very big but it's free money, and re-invested it will grow.

[dorset64] 10/1/2018 15:03

Its the sensible thing to do TS, buy some more & hold.

[trulyscrumptious] 10/1/2018 14:59

I had to add some more!

[trulyscrumptious] 10/1/2018 14:56

Great update from Malcy.


Sorry double post! It looks a great company even if short terms gains didn't materialise as a lot of people were expecting. It has to be a buy and a long term hold at this bargain price.

[bushman1] 10/1/2018 14:42

Very good update. I'm pleased I've added. IH I hope you have too .. :)

[paleje] 10/1/2018 14:35

FWIW, MGW's opinion after attending the GM and his intention to add to his bucket list as well as interview Andrew Knott soon:-

On Monday I attended the Savannah General Meeting which apart from doing the mandatory technical stuff, enabled us to listen to AK giving the first full presentation on the deal, my comments are below but I urge you to take a look at the full presentation which has some great graphics I just can’t reproduce here.

Post the deal SAVP looks like the real McCoy as a full cycle, self funded E&P company. The existing acreage in the highly prospective Agadem Rift Basin in SE Niger is about to be tested as the three well drilling programme is iminent and will give us a good idea of the prospectivity there. The deal means that the company is about to acquire interests in the Uquo and Stubb Creek oil and gas fields as well as a 20% interest in the Accugas midstream business in SE Nigeria. As I said this will make Savannah into a ‘cash flow generative, full cycle E&P company capable self funding all operational activities and paying a dividend’.

The acquisition gives net 2P reserves of 92 mmboe, 2C resources of 44 mmboe and net production guidance for 2018 of >20/- b/d of hydrocarbons. Accugas comprises a 200 mmscfd gas processing facility and a 260 km gas pipeline network capable of supplying c.10% of Nigeria’s power generation capacity. The process has led to the company raising $125m of equity capital from new and existing shareholders which is a testament to the deal that the management have brought to the table. The scale of this acquisition is significant and should not be underestimated, SAVP’s management have taken advantage of limited competition in the area, seen Seven in distress and completed some deal. In paying $280m to acquire assets with a CPR valuation of $663m and ‘material’ upside potential shareholders should be delighted, this is a ‘unique opportunity’ to acquire a substantial asset package’ There is no doubt that this is a transformational deal for SAVP and its shareholders both in terms of assets and production acquired at an incredibly low cost and comes with beefed up staffing including directors and investors and will be a welcome addition to the bucket list. I look forward to interviewing Andrew Knot on Core Finance before long.


Thanks for your last couple of posts zengas.

[lithological heterogeneities] 09/1/2018 08:20

and down again.

[buffythebuffoon] 08/1/2018 20:24

Yes Zengas, and with a current market cap equal to one year’s average net free cash flow.

Buffy

[ifthecapfits] 08/1/2018 20:02

all being ignored at the moment. Value will out in the end.😊

[zengas] 08/1/2018 17:41

Page 13 "Paying $280m to acquire hard assets with CPR valuation of $663m" (or £490m which is about 55p).

Upside potential of additional 44 mmboe 2C and further estimated 85 mmboe prospective resources.
------------------------------------------

Page 39 3X Niger R3 propsects have 226 mmbo unrisked recoverable mid case in first and secondary targets - This quarter.

Page 37 Average $88m/Year free cash flow "+multiple reinvestment opportunities".

Definitely heavily institutionally backed. Dividend of about 3% estimated for 2018 financial year.

[diversification] 08/1/2018 17:29

LH, come on fella, the admission document has been out for a while now. We can’t drill until the funds from the second tranche of shares are available. This is dependant on the exchange offer which is to be left open for a minimum of 20 business days. Drilling will commence following a succesful exchange offer and admission of the second tranche of shares. If the exchange offer is unsuccessful (unlikely) then the second tranche of shares are unlikely to be admitted to trading until late March early April, worse case drilling will commence in April IMO.