Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 07/10/2018 08:40

I've learnt over many years that such events are full of bull. If it's not in an RNS then it has little substance.

[gisjob2] 06/10/2018 07:32

Or you could just double your holding at this price and benefit when the 7E deal is signed of and we start producing oil in Niger next year.

[bushman1] 06/10/2018 03:24

ngms. AK and the BoD are taking a much longer term view. You are aware there's the Malcy evening on 16th October in London ? You are aware Andrew Knott is attending plus there will be a Q & A session afterwards ? As opposed to posting comments here based on your unwavering belief - 100 per cent fully entitled of course ngms - as to what ' could have been ' and what ' should have been ' then do attend please. You can ask AK directly his reasoning for SAVP's future strategy ? You can advise him why the share price would have been much higher if SAVP had only only focused on Niger ? I will write down everything said and post it here. Deal ?

[ngms27] 05/10/2018 21:38

Bushman, ask yourself a question and it's a simple one.What would the NAV per share now be had they not purchased 7Es Nigerian assets?Given the five successes for what would have been a much smaller market cap company I'm 100% certain it wouldn't be a miserable 75p per share now.Sometimes the truth is hard to agree to.I rest my case.

[mount teide] 05/10/2018 19:39

Price rising in tandem with a strong near term upward trend in transaction volume:

Volume today: 9.49 million

Average daily volume over last month: 2.82m (+138% over a year / +58% over 3 months)
Average daily volume over last 3 months: 1.78m (+ 51% over a year)
Average daily volume over last year: 1.18m

[bushman1] 05/10/2018 19:05

ngms : sadly doesn't pay any attention to SAVP updates or even interviews with Andrew Knott, off and away as usual in his own little world...


a ) Andrew Knott : 5th October :

b )

c )

d ) Shore Capital : Ahead of this, our last published Risked NAV estimate for Savannah stands at circa 75p/share and we firmly reiterate our BUY recommendation.

[timberwolf3] 05/10/2018 16:57

From Malcy today



Savannah Petroleum

Savannah has announced that the Zomo-1 exploration well in the R3 portion of the R3/R4 PSC area in the Agadem Rift Basin in SE Niger is its 5th consecutive oil discovery. The well encountered 5.4m of net oil bearing reservoir sandstones in the E1 reservoir unit within the primary Eocene Sokor Alternances objective. Additional pay is thought to exist but will require further technical evaluation to confirm, either way this is a perfectly good stand alone discovery.

Yet again the well reached TD (20 days) and completion (28 days) in good time, beating expectations of 22 and 30-35 days respectively. This well concludes the 2018 drilling programme and the Amdigh-1 well test will occur in December 2018 as expected.

The company has commissioned PSDM processing of the R3 East 3D seismic dataset to give enhanced definition of the oil pay zones at the crests of each of the discoveries and significantly assist in “field scale” evaluations and associated development well planning. This includes enhancing the 3D imaging of the A's yet undrilled deeper Cretaceous aged Yogou and Donga exploration targets. To add to this the company has recently received an additional 400km of 2D seismic data on the R3 Central area and expects to conclude this process shortly.

With this 5th consecutive discovery enabling the company to proceed towards the EPS scheduled for 2019 and the associated revenue stream that it will bring there are clearly exciting times ahead for Savannah. The large multi-well drilling programme will be exciting for shareholders as so far the company has only touched the tip of its potential, CEO Andrew Knott states that ‘the discoveries have served to demonstrate the world class potential of our wider PSC areas where we have identified 120 potential drilling targets which we expect to high grade for inclusion in future drilling campaigns ‘.

With such potential in Niger, along with the exciting developments in the Seven Energy transaction which is in the process of completing, Savannah is set well for 2019 and beyond. It has a unique combination of production and development in Nigeria including the Accugas stake, whilst in Niger it has exploration and the EPS to bring imminent and rapidly increasing revenue. The shares are significantly undervalued on any timescale, see the blog website for interview with Andrew Knott.

[rampair] 05/10/2018 16:22

With great respect and some understanding of the position of holders prior to going for the seven assets, but its getting a bit old, time cannot be rewound, we have the circumstances- as does every company. If we take the view that sevens assets are no good, I would sell. However, all the cash from activities are being saved so that when that is released we won’t have lost out but gained immensely.
These assets look good quality, we know all about customers and the potential to grow the throughput of the Accugas system.
It’s still got a massive potential- with a partner perhaps to receive a lot of cash
into the business to develop Niger - this will bring the share price up but, if, next year
Seven assets are bringing in cash - then it will have been a good thing that the company did.
R.

[timberwolf3] 05/10/2018 15:08

ngms27 - i thought you had sold out here many moons ago for the reasons you stated above.

[thelung] 05/10/2018 15:00

I wondered when ^^^TIT^^^ would turn up

[ngms27] 05/10/2018 14:55

I'm sure once Nigeria gets sorted there will be some uplift but the point I'm making is thats it's now going to be minor compared to what it could and more importantly SHOULD have been.

At that point it's hasta la vista baby from my point of view.

[zengas] 05/10/2018 14:50

My reason for buying blah blah ...so why would you be holding it if there's nothing to be positive about ?

[ngms27] 05/10/2018 14:42

So there we have it.

Those of us who bought in for the Niger assets and drilling campaign have well and truly been shafted by Empire building and feathering ones own nest. This is another example of a lifestyle company not being run for the benefit of shareholders. This sector is awash with them.

My reason for buying as above was Niger and the upcoming drilling where adjacent acreage in the same play fairway and yielded an 85% success case.

We have now drilled 5 holes with a 100% success rate. Without the stupid empire building where would the share price be now? In my view somewhere above 150p and we would all have been happy.

Instead we have ended up with no increase in share price, uncertainty over Nigeria and absolutely no idea of the discovered resource in Niger.

I fail to see how the likes of Malcy and Zengas can continue to be positive on this company.

[thomasthetank1] 05/10/2018 13:52

All - please see below a link to a Vox Markets interview with Andrew Knott, CEO of Savannah Petroleum. Andrew's section starts at 1:20.

hxxps://audioboom.com/posts/7034462-savannah-petroleum-savp-block-energy-bloe-and-audioboom-boom

[ifthecapfits] 05/10/2018 10:48

Yes it is quiet. But this news was expected - unless you were Alamaison, guaranteeing a duster! This drill along with the previous 4 make the potential of the entire area huge - I don't think this has sunk in yet and consider us to be severely mispriced/undervalued.

[seven7seven] 05/10/2018 09:19

3.5million buy at 8:47am.

[zengas] 05/10/2018 09:14

100% Success rate.
First 5 with 50-60 mmbls recoverable estimate.
Production near term.
Finding oil for under $1 per barrel.
2.8 billion risked recoverable mid case oil target.
Very low risk exploration re Sokor Alternances.
Each discovery has derisked the licences further.
Planning for major repeatable success.
Major Pipeline in planning.

Given the above i'd be surprised if this hasn't really stirred the interest of other oil companies.

[seven7seven] 05/10/2018 09:11

5/5 discoveries Zumo1 came in and it's quite subdued here.

[thomasthetank1] 05/10/2018 08:56

See below an article that just went up on Upstream. Full piece can be found at:


Upstream
Savannah makes fifth Niger find
By Josh Lewis
5 October 2018

Latest exploration well recovers light oil as drilling campaign wraps up

British independent Savannah Petroleum has made its fifth consecutive discovery in Niger with an exploration well on the Zomo prospect in the R3 portion of the R3/R4 production sharing contract area.

[thomasthetank1] 05/10/2018 08:53

Hannam & Partners

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) - Discovery at Zomo – that’s 5/5

Savannah Petroleum has announced an oil discovery at the Zomo-1 exploration well. Zomo-1 is the fifth consecutive discovery to be made in exploration campaign in the R3 portion of the R3/R4 PSC Area in the Agadem Rift Basin South East Niger. Preliminary results indicate that the well has encountered a total estimated 5.4m of net oil-bearing reservoir sandstones in the E1 reservoir unit within the primary Eocene Sokor Alternances objective. Additional pay is thought to potentially exist in the well but will require further technical evaluation to confirm. Wireline logs indicate the reservoir properties to be good quality and the available data indicates light oil consistent with Savannah’s discoveries to date, and in line with offset wells and the depth/API trend observed across the basin. Oil samples have been taken and returned to surface using wireline testing equipment.

The Zomo well was a low risk prospect similar to the existing discoveries. The high-risk, but unlikely upside case, was that it is one very large structure connected to Amdigh and this has not proven to be the case – and while 5.4m of net pay is the lowest of the discoveries made to date (see Table 1) it is additive to our Core + Development NAV of 63p/sh. In our recently published NAV we carried 4p unrisked for the well with 2p risked and compares to the 11.5p/share value we carry for the R3/R4 risked early production system. As Savannah moves towards de-risking Niger, from both a geological and commercial perspective, we can see upside to 17p of value not including exploration.

[mount teide] 05/10/2018 08:46

Another tremendous result - SAVP is making drilling in Niger's Agadem Rift basin for hydrocarbons look as easy as drilling for hydrocarbons under a petrol service station forecourt!

Dishonest Marty will be so disappointed ! Predicted duster after duster turning out to be discovery after discovery.

SAVP will soon have O&G sector Analysts dusting off the the record books for the longest run of 100% drilling success in a completely new location.

The Chinese and Indians looking to get some of the action will need to be talking serious money just get in though the door.

[wardrv] 05/10/2018 08:35

My hypothesis is that they have paused drilling to agree a partner introduction. Difficult to negotiate a partner buy in value when it changes every month. Didn't press rumours suggest they would be in discussion with Indian and Chinese firms about now. Imagine what the arrival of $250 million will do to the share price.

[allonblack] 05/10/2018 08:35

So is the trade here that Nigeria is in there for nothing, could be worth 40p and the catalyst is this month?

[gmr64] 05/10/2018 08:17

Shore Capital note on SAVP:
Savannah has released what is, in our view, another excellent result from its drilling programme in Niger, where the Zomo-1 exploration well has been declared a discovery. Zomo-1 is the fifth consecutive discovery made by Savannah in its Niger exploration campaign and, as with the previous four wells, available data at this stage includes wireline logging, fluid sampling and pressure data. These indicate that the well has encountered an estimated 5.4m of net oil bearing reservoir in the “E1” reservoir unit within the primary “Sokor Alternances” objective (with additional pay thought to potentially exist in the well, subject to further assessment). The result from Zomo-1 is very consistent with Savannah’s existing subsurface understanding and, with drilling having again been undertaken faster than previously guided, we remain impressed by Savannah’s execution on this valuable and strategically important project. With the company having now declared five discoveries from the five exploration wells drilled to date, we highlight this extremely high rate of drilling success and note Savannah’s plans (confirmed today) to now conclude its maiden exploration campaign, ahead of a new drilling campaign scheduled for commencement early next year. In the meantime, Savannah has announced that it will undertake pre-stack depth migration (PSDM) processing of the “R3 East” seismic dataset, which is intended to provide significantly enhanced subsurface definition, assist with field development planning and enhance the imaging of deeper prospects. In addition, Savannah reports that it has recently received a further 400km of 2D seismic data covering the “R3 Central” area, with the company currently in the process of incorporating this data into its subsurface model. Savannah continues to expect to perform a well test on Amdigh-1 in December 2018, with preparations for this currently underway and, as previously guided, it is anticipated that production from the company's planned early production system (EPS) will commence in early 2019. Based on the fantastic drilling results achieved to date and with good visibility having now emerged on Savannah’s early production plans in Niger, we expect to factor the positive impact of this into our forecasts shortly. Ahead of this, our last published Risked NAV estimate for Savannah stands at circa 75p/share and we firmly reiterate our BUY recommendation.