San Leon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 20:27

" with the most material increases driven by improving security conditions in Libya and Nigeria."

........................................


oh dear, oversupply. bad news for the new hedge to be negotiated soon.

[linksdean2] 17/11/2016 20:19

OPEC Cut of 'At Least 700,000 Bpd' Needed to Bring Market Balance

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Jefferies has outlined that the physical market has shifted back to oversupply because of surging OPEC output, with the most material increases driven by improving security conditions in Libya and Nigeria. OPEC is now managing more output heading into its general meeting on Nov. 30 than it was when action was first broached in August.

" with the most material increases driven by improving security conditions in Libya and Nigeria."

www.rigzone.com/news/article.

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 19:32

By Levinus Nwabughiogu ABUJA-Federal government has finally announced the cancellation of joint cash call with oil companies operating in Nigeria. The announcement came on a day the government said that it had also uncovered heinous acts of frauds in the revenue generating agencies. Main reason for the cash call withdrawal was principally hinged on the paucity of funds arising from the drastic fall of crude oil prices in the international market which had made it almost impossible for Nigeria to meet its cash call obligations. Cash calls is the counterpart funding which the Federal Government, represented by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC annually pays as its 60 percent equity shareholding in various oil and gas fields operated by international oil companies and indigenous oil firms.

Read more at: hxxp://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/11/fg-cancels-joint-venture-cash-calls-oil-companies-targets-15-billion-investments/?

[smithy91] 17/11/2016 18:20

Deadcat1
Posts: 121
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion

RE: BS and all category 1'sToday

09:42You're getting careless Infapound. Your MI66 ID lasted less than a month before admin deleted it. So that's Smithy, Lookers and MI66. I think you need to be much cleverer with your subterfuge, but somehow I think that's beyond you.

[smithy91] 17/11/2016 18:19

Infapound
Posts: 658
Off Topic
Opinion:
Strong Buy

Probs an IFA or broker
Today 17:14
Putting his clients money into a basket of stocks like a unit trust.

Only IMO of course.

This is going to boom on info for sure - even if it's just that we are £1 in the black!!!

GLA

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 16:36

have u sold half of your position ? not going to be able to buy much 'stuff' with that.

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 14:03

Discord In Nigeria Is A Blessing For Long Oil Investors
Nov. 17, 2016 3:56 AM ET|


Daniel Jones Daniel JonesFollow(3,575 followers)
Deep value, value, contrarian, special situations
Send Message
Summary

Oil prices have risen recently, driven largely by news from OPEC but also thanks to a development from Nigeria that could prove bullish moving forward.

The Niger Delta Avengers have started striking oil assets once again as they grow tired of waiting for the government to meet their demands.

What is it that they want and are these plans even realistic?

What does this all mean for oil prices moving forward if current trends continue as they have been?

On November 15th, news broke that the Niger Delta Avengers, a militant group located in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, struck three more oil-related places in their country as they grow tired of waiting for a decision from the government regarding their recent demands. In what follows, I will go over the developments and give my thoughts on what this is likely to mean for the global industry moving forward, as well as for investors in companies like Approach Resources (NASDAQ:AREX) and Legacy Reserves (NASDAQ:LGCY), as well as for the United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA:USO) and other oil-related ETFs moving forward.

Back in action

Earlier this year, the Niger Delta Avengers made global news when the group began destroying energy infrastructure within Nigeria in an attempt to get the government of the nation to listen to the issues affecting the Niger Delta. Despite taking the stance (but threatening on at least one occasion to reconsider that stance) of not killing anybody unless they were attacked first, the group was still effective enough to bring oil production in the nation crashing down.

By August of this year, according to OPEC, oil output had fallen to just 1.419 million barrels per day. Though this is a large amount of production compared to many other nations (and made them the eighth largest OPEC producer), it represented a significant drop from the 1.865 million barrels per day seen in 2015 and was far below the 1.953 million barrels per day seen in 2014. With energy prices already low for all of this year, combined with pain caused by other militant groups with a different mission, such as Boko Haram, the work of not just the Niger Delta Avengers but also other similarly-aligned parties brought tremendous harm to the Nigerian government.



Earlier this year, the group decided to join in with the representatives of other militant groups, along with Niger Delta community leaders, to seek an agreement with Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria's President, that would end the discord. Not everybody agreed with this approach and a new group, the Niger Delta Greenland Justice Mandate, was formed with the objective of picking up where the Avengers left off.

Even in light of this continued resistance, however, a military crackdown, combined with a ceasefire being entered into by the Avengers and other parties until an agreement could be achieved, oil production resumed its growth. If OPEC is correct in its estimations, output in Nigeria soared by 170,200 barrels per day from September to October, coming in at 1.628 million barrels per day for the month.

Now, however, it seems as though the Avengers, tired of waiting for a response from Nigeria's government, have started their campaign again. On November 15th, the group announced that they had struck Nembe 1, 2, and 3, truck lines operated by Agip, Oando, and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS). Collectively, this truck line is responsible for the transportation of 300,000 barrels of oil per day and, depending on how long disruptions last, it could have a material impact on Nigeria's oil production in the weeks and months to come (assuming they destroy any repairs that are made).

This move by the group was brought about by something that they refer to as "Operation Sharkbite", an exercise commissioned by the Nigerian Navy that seeks to undermine the negotiation process. I have not found anything official from the Nigerian government about a program with that name but there is an "Exercise Sharkbite" mentioned (probably the same thing) wherein the Navy is patrolling certain areas to ensure that piracy, crude oil theft, and other illegal activities do not take place. Whether this is a cover for something else is pure speculation on my part but from the perspective of the Avengers it seems like a material issue.

What do they want?

On November 1st, PANDEF (the Pan Niger Delta Force) provided President Buhari with a 16-point plan geared toward bringing harmony to the Niger Delta region. Included in this plan is a call for environmental cleanup efforts regarding oil spills and other types of pollution in the region, granting Niger Delta residents the right to an at-least partial ownership over the oil projects conducted in the area, robust exit strategies for energy companies operating there so that people who learn valuable skills aren't left unable to use those skills after working for the oil companies (or that they're otherwise taken care of), and the completion on the Niger Delta Maritime University so that the region's youth can receive a quality education and, hopefully, can escape poverty.

Another interesting demand from PANDEF is that they want the administrative and operational headquarters of major international oil companies relocated to the Niger Delta region. While in theory this makes sense because it means that the interests of those working for the oil companies locally will be in alignment with the people of the Niger Delta, I have a hard time seeing this one come to fruition. The main reason is because, given the instability in the region, it would also make the oil companies easier targets for militant-based attacks should something head south in the future. For more details regarding the 16-point plan provided to President Buhari, please check here.

Takeaway

Based on the data provided, it seems as though the Avengers are still interested in negotiating with President Buhari's government, but only time will tell what the outcome will be. Personally, I believe the government is likely going to delay any constructive agreements for as long as possible because it's cheaper, in the short-run at least, to keep pushing for temporary ceasefires than it is to commit resources to significant plans (and some of the plans may not be possible at all). Of course, if a deal is announced and the Avengers and most other groups are satisified by the results, oil production could climb higher again but, in the meantime, it looks as though these developments will prove bullish for the oil industry for the foreseeable future.

Disclosure: I am/we are long LGCY, AREX.

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 13:49

Earlier this week, militants in the Nigeria’s oil rich delta lands blew up the Nembe Creek Trunk Line pipeline operated by Shell, AGIP, and Oanda. The attack came just weeks after two other bombings that destroyed another major crude oil conduit, the Trans-Forcados pipeline. All three assaults are believed to be the work of the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA)—one of the new militant groups demanding restitution for what they claim are years of exploitation and environmental destruction in the Niger Delta by the government and international oil companies.

Bombings like the one that crippled the Nembe Creek pipeline are particularly hard hitting for the Nigerian economy which relies on oil for approximately 92% of their exports. Despite the fact that almost all of this oil is produced in the Southern states of the Niger Delta, the region remains grossly impoverished and underdeveloped. For the 20 million inhabitant of the area, this often means living without the most basic needs.

“The entire area is poison.”
The NDA say they won’t stop attacking oil facilities until a greater portion of the oil wealth goes to the swampland region where it is produced.

“Since the day crude oil and gas resources was discovered, for the past 60 years, we’re only asking for potable water, electricity, affordable healthcare, quality education, etc.,” the Avengers said in a statement by their spokesman, Brig. Gen Mudoch Agbinido. “The history of communal lives is terror of poverty, inhumanity, and desolate living conditions. But when you move into these facilities operated by multinational oil corporations they are living like kings.”


Groups like the NDA represent the newest generation of combatants in this David-versus-Goliath fight against big oil, bred not only from the long-time struggle against the government backed petroleum industry, but also from a history of ethnic violence. These new militant groups are well armed and trained says Prof. Darren Kew Chair of the McCormack Graduate School’s Department of Conflict Resolution, Human Security, and Global Governance.

“A number of political leaders I’ve spoken to are just baffled at how sophisticated the bombing attacks have been,” said Kew. “In the past, militants would attack installations coming up in speedboats with machine guns. Now, they are able to put bombs and other things on some of the oil refineries or some of the piping without anyone seeing and they set it off remotely at the exact time they say they will.”

Kew says that it’s too simple to view these militants as just freedom fighters or environmental crusaders and that while some may be motivated by a political agenda, many sometimes act like mercenaries or Mafioso thugs.

Fynface Dumnamene Fynface, an Ogoni activist and program officer for the Nigerian NGO, Social Action, can understand why jobless and desperate young men would resort to violence, but thinks that these militant groups are just making things worse.

“When these pipelines are blown up, the environment suffers,” he said. “The crude oil from the pipes spill into the environment, and people die from it.”


There are hundreds of oil spills in the Niger Delta every year, making it one of the most polluted places on the planet. Over the past six decades, these oil spills have transformed the once rich river delta into an unlivable wasteland. The air is toxic, the creeks lifeless, mangrove forests destroyed, and the fishing and farming industry, once a staple of the local economy, is no longer feasible.

“The entire area is poison,” Fynface said. “In Ogoniland, you have evidences of people getting illnesses, strange diseases. You have rashes, miscarriages. You have premature deaths. You have girls who are still very young, under the age of 12, entering menopause.”

Fynface continues to appeal to the international community to help bring an end to the conflict and begin the cleanup of the region, but there seems to be no end in sight. November’s attacks came during ongoing negotiations between regional leaders and the Nigerian government, shattering a short-lived ceasefire. In response, the government has deployed a large military force in the Niger Delta, further escalating tensions in the region.

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 13:32

The job of the stocky, crew-cut woman is to combat oil theft, estimated to cost Nigeria a tenth of its annual oil production. It's a rate of loss that has dethroned Nigeria as Africa's largest oil producer.

A paramilitary NSCDC trooper, wearing a balaclava and flip-flops, obeys Amakiri by firing his automatic weapon into the rusty oil containers at close range, setting them on fire.

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 13:10

for all those that struggle to read and especially for anyone who needs a new calculator at xmas the part to to really concentrate and try to understand is.

THE REMAINDER IS PURCHASED AT A PRICE BASED ON DATED BRENT ADJUSTED FOR A BONNY
LIGHT PRICE DIFFERENTIAL.

GL with that.

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 13:03

today's quiz

Mr. Sunmonu doesn't take a salary but just takes fees.

So is it structured this way so he pays

a. more tax
b. less tax

when u have come to your decision, whilst it's entirely legal, maybe u want to reflect on the decision after u have waited in A&E for hours.

[triple seven] 17/11/2016 12:51

Residential troll posting negatives again.Credibility don't think so.

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 12:47

GL if u are thinking of investing your hard earned in Nigeria, as I'm sure u are going to need buckets full.
Of course if u are receiving a big salary with attached fees and xpenses plus options at 45p guess it's a win win whatever the outcome.

[o1lman] 17/11/2016 12:25

at the arrow how much of the hedged oil was actually sold ?

.......................

This pipeline has a capacity of 150,000 b/d at Nembe Creek, however, up to 600,000 b/d of liquids can be evacuated from the end point at Cawthorne Channel.

...................

they must have forgot about that, an easy mistake to make.