Sainsbury (j) Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 17/8/2021 14:11

The latest take-home grocery figures from Kantar show sales fell by 4.0% year-on-year during the 12 weeks to 8 August as consumers continued to return to pre-pandemic shopping habits, making smaller but more frequent trips to the stores. However, in the last month, sales declined more slowly by 0.5% and the data shows that Covid is still having an impact on people’s spending as grocery sales remain 9.9% higher in the latest 12 weeks than in 2019.

Kantar’s data suggests just over 20% of the population bought groceries online in the latest four weeks, the lowest level since October last year, while the share of grocery sales made online now stands at 13.0%, down from a peak of 15.4% in February.

This shift away from online contributed to Ocado’s sales falling by 0.7%, its first decline on record. McKevitt said.

Looking at the performance of individual retailers, Waitrose was the only grocer to increase sales in the past 12 weeks, with growth of 0.6% as it attracted 365,000 more shoppers than it did last year. The retailer expanded its market share by 0.2 percentage points.

Tesco’s share of grocery sales also increased by 0.6 percentage points from 26.6% to 27.2%, its largest year-on-year share gain since 2007. Sales were bolstered by its premium ‘Finest’ range, which rose by £29m


Sainsbury’s share nudged up by 0.3 percentage points to give it 15.2% of the market.


Asda’s edged down to 14.2% despite a 17% jump in the number of shopping trips to its stores compared with last year. Meanwhile, Morrisons share dipped to 10.0% after its sales fell by 6.2% against its strong performance last year.

Meanwhile, Aldi and Lidl both gained market share again. Aldi now holds 8.2% of the market and Lidl 6.1%.

Co-op and Iceland, two of the standout performers of the past 18 months, saw their sales fall year-on-year.

[quepassa] 13/8/2021 08:52

Two-and-a-half year High.

And gaining altitude fast.

Last time Sainsbury was over 300p was back in December 2018. - And only briefly for a few months.

Still currently shorted to 6.12%.

The disclosed short positions must be feeling the pain by now. And there are some houses which can withstand the heat much less than others.

Disclosed shorts (over 0.5%)as at 12/8/21

Blackrock 2.29%
KPS 0.68%
Marshall Wace 0.89%
Pelham long/short master fund 1.59%
Third Point 0.67%


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[pjleeds] 11/8/2021 23:28

Sains + morrisons wot a combo!

[chiefbrody] 11/8/2021 17:48

Pretty much back to pre Argos shambolic decision levels.Prob sell some again soon but the chart is so pretty, might as well hang on a while longer.

[dipa11] 11/8/2021 13:28

Last time when May 2018 shorting was above 10% plus Sainsbury was 300 plus.Now when shorting is 6.12% it is reaching around 300 plus and when shorting is reduced then price will be 350 plusI think shorter are burning there hands after 3 years Good luck to long time holder

[rolo7] 10/8/2021 21:29

Yep QP sbry probably in best situated in terms of lorry drivers as they can switch them over from argos?

[quepassa] 10/8/2021 18:39

Closing in slowly but inexorably on 300p.

Now at 293p and with 6.1% still short, a big scramble to close short positions is likely imminent.

Bears beware.

Sector quickly being re-rated upwards by market on M&A prospects, unrealised value of massive property estates and potential for positive change.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[dipa11] 10/8/2021 17:23

Morrison shorting has been closed Good news as takeover bid became risky for shorter

[dipa11] 09/8/2021 15:26

Further more reduction in shorting news will come soon As bidding for morrison is hot up @ market valued 7 billion plus Sainsbury market capital is 7 billion when shorting is reduced from 9% to 6.12% nowUp side is more Hold tight and good luck long time holder

[loganair] 06/8/2021 14:03

BBC - Supermarket chain Morrisons says it has agreed to a revised takeover offer worth £6.7bn, up from £6.3bn, from a private equity consortium led by Fortress Investment Group.

The increased offer, worth 272p a share, comes after some key investors rejected a previous 254p a share offer.

The bidder said the offer represents at 52% premium on the group's 178p per share price at the close before the first takeover proposal sparked surge in its valuation.

The company said in a stock market statement: "Morrisons directors believe that the increased Fortress offer is in the best interests of Morrisons shareholders as a whole, and accordingly unanimously recommend that Morrisons shareholders vote in favour of the resolutions required to implement the increased Fortress offer."

The UK takeover regulator has given CD&R a deadline of Monday 9 August to either place its own firm bid for the retailer or walk away.



I would say that the new offer of 272p has been set at a price that the major shareholders have already agreed to and therefore is basically a done deal.

[loganair] 04/8/2021 19:30

Why private equity wants to take UK assets off the shelf - By Alec Mattinson:


The bidding war for Morrisons is expected to ratchet up with week with expectations of an imminent higher offer from CD&R putting pressure on the Fortress-led consortium and the Morrisons board.

The Morrisons board has accepted a 252p per share offer from Fortress and its backers, but a Sunday Times report suggested bids and counterbids could raise the level to 290p per share by the end of the bidding.

Even that – which would value the supermarket at just over £7bn – is short of fair value for the supermarket, according to cashflow analytics specialist Quest.

The division of Canaccord Genuity distinguishes itself from more conventional equity analysts by undertaking cashflow valuation analysis of companies for institutional investors – in effect, advising big investors on whether to accept bids for stocks they hold in their funds.

For Morrisons, it argued in a recent note the current bid levels remain materially lower than its own current adjusted value per share of 314p based on assumed cashflow returns.

Morrisons, it argues, is just one of a plethora of stocks being fundamentally undervalued by the market, which uses different valuation metrics to those private equity investors are employing.

“Private equity investors want to know what their return is,” says Quest director Graham Simpson. “They don’t care about PE ratios, DCFs and all of the other classical conventional valuation metrics.”

Ultimately, he says, PE investors want to know: “What is my annual return over the next three years and how does that compare to the cost of debt?”

Looking at UK-listed stocks through this lens, Quest identified particular opportunities for private equity to take undervalued assets at the small end of UK plcs. Some 177 stocks with a market capitalisation below £1.5bn have an leveraged buyout free cash yield above 10% – a key metric making them very attractive to a PE acquirer.

Under-pressure retailers are among those currently most undervalued – according to Quest’s research – with names such as Topps Tiles, Smiths News, Dixons Carphone and Halfords all having an LBO free cashflow yield of between 15% and 30%.



Perhaps most notably for the grocery sector, Sainsbury’s is the most attractive food retail name, with a LBO FCF of 15.3%.

Quest’s Simpson cautions that this current Sainsbury’s level is before a bid premium that would see it fall. For example, assuming a bid came in 30% higher this would see the Sainsbury LBO FCF yield fall to 12%.

However, this level remains “incredibly attractive”, he says.



“PE typically take a three to five-year outlook in their LBO models,” he explains. “Therefore, the return would be 12% per annum and you still own Sainsbury’s to which you can also apply typical PE levers such as improving working capital delaying paying creditors, reduce stock, strip capex down, run it lean, close stores, to extract further value.”

The big payday at the of this process, he says, is an ultimate exit and possible IPO having recouped plenty of the PE investment already during the ownership period.

McColl’s, currently at a LBO FCF level of 12.8%, is also picked out as representing value.

Meanwhile, among food suppliers Finsbury Food Group (14.4%), Wynnstay (14.1%), Carr’s Group (10.7%) and Stock Spirits (10.6%) are above the key 10% level, while in householder and personal goods Accrol (18%) also makes the cut.

“Finsbury Food is incredibly cheap on our 40-year DCF [discounted cash flow] model, which is more robust than outdated conventional valuation metrics that are point in time and look no further than the current or following year,” he explains.

He describes the current post-Covid differential between market and PE valuations as “unprecedented” and “shows the true extent of the UK plc undervaluation relative to global peers”.

“We do not see the current enhanced M&A interest in the UK plc slowing and we expect H2 2021 to be just as frenzied.”

The Morrisons bidding war may be just heating up, but it’s unlikely to be the last this year.

[chiefbrody] 04/8/2021 18:09

From yesterdays trades?Probably increased today.

[dipa11] 04/8/2021 18:03

Shorting reduced to 6.12% today One step towards the reduction of short Good luck to long time holder

[chiefbrody] 04/8/2021 17:57

True though. I've never been more ashamed for voting for these communists at the last election (not sure that i did mind but the point still stands).Welcome to future North Korea.

[pjleeds] 04/8/2021 17:22

Oops sorry wrong board, been drinking.x

[pjleeds] 04/8/2021 17:21

Final word to all who voted Tory,"WELL DONE"

[pjleeds] 04/8/2021 17:18

16-17yo jabs = state control

[dipa11] 04/8/2021 09:08

All news @ one place https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/J-SAINSBURY-PLC-9590189/charts/

[rolo7] 04/8/2021 08:17

spod that depot was non food?! do people really think bootled water is a must sell item for a supermarket there is water in customers taps at home? obviously a large item taking up space on lorries.

[loganair] 04/8/2021 07:33

The Morrisons supermarket chain might have to break up if a planned £6.3billion takeover deal goes through.

A sale of Morrisons to private equity owners could trigger a break-up of the supermarket chain, analysts in the City have warned.

Analysts at Bernstein said they “struggle to see” how Morrisons’ assets would not be stripped if the takeover proceeds at the current or a higher offer price.

City analysts Bernstein said the new owners would need to sell off part of the supermarket to reclaim some cash.

Bernstein said buyers would struggle to make a profit "without significant asset sales”.

[dipa11] 04/8/2021 06:22

Stay longhttps://www.britishbulls.com/m/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=SBRY.L