Sainsbury (j) Share Discussion Threads

[albert3591] 04/4/2020 08:24

Buywell..I say the same answer as I have on the Tesco thread

[the oak tree] 02/4/2020 21:00

Its worth saying that the very positive Pets at Home trading update its given today is great for that company but Sainsbury and other large supermarkest such as Tesco are in a quite different sector. Dog Food tends not to be fresh and most is bought from the exact same shop.

This is unlike supermarkets at the moment that have new demand as other outlets people would have used are closed plus it sells alot of fresh food that if bought in baulk and under lets say stressful conditions can go off and is wasted.

Pets at Home will have a good month or two but in total for the year it won't be that much up I suspect. Albeit its margins might be better now.

[1savvyinvestor] 02/4/2020 15:09

Strange sell off of Sainsbury today . Looks like 200p is the support

[the oak tree] 02/4/2020 09:57

Thats true Argos stores have been closed but the ones inside Sainsbury haven't been. And they are experiencing all time record demand IMHO. People are Q to get in. Again margins will be much better than normal.

The excess staff from the Argos stores closed are now working in home delivery and inside Sainsbury so in some ways it was a ready made situation to get in extra people without hiring brand new people from outside.

The bottom line is we don't really know yet the impact for Argos: good or bad. My gut says they are selling stuff like crazy to families that cant leave their homes and at good margin so it will be well positive.

GLA

[rolo7] 02/4/2020 08:36

What about Argos stores being closed losses?

[the oak tree] 02/4/2020 04:17

Its true Sainsbury and the like will be under pressure just like before once this situation is over.

However there is a difference.

Sainsbury will have earned a fair bit of money from this situation which it can invest in its business model. The non supermarkets will have faced heavy losses.

As I say follow the money - if you can buy value cheaply which IMHO this company is.

[tim 3] 01/4/2020 20:09

spod

This is my argument for many of the shares that are hit hard like JDW, it is temporary if the business model worked before it will likely work after and visa versa.

I see this highlighting some excellent opportunities but you may need to be patent, could take till next year or beyond depending on how this pans out but personally would be surprised if we dont see a recovery certainly in part by the end of the year or sooner.

One thing for sure I am selling nothing and buying a little here and there.

[the oak tree] 01/4/2020 19:40

Alot of companies have / will be cancelling their Dividends which is quite understandable.
The point is I don't think the supermarkets will be doing that (inc Sainsbury).
Another positive.

Don't over complicate things - follow the money.
Especially when you aren't paying over the odds for it.

IMHO

[investor2019] 01/4/2020 19:29

....dont forget the experts said bond yields could not trade below zero

[investor2019] 01/4/2020 19:28

apparently the oil price is heading sub-zero. so much of it around, no where to store it.

[spob] 01/4/2020 18:40

It's human nature to assume that a sudden change will now become the new normal
when in reality nothing could be further from the truth


We had a few bad hurricane seasons close together a while back in the US
people assumed that was the new normal

it wasn't


We had an oil price well over 100 dollars a barrel a few years back
experts said oil will never go below 100 again

the oil price went down to around 30
experts said the oil price will stay low

the oil price went back up again
experts then said it can never go that low again

the oil price went below 20 this week


who needs experts

[spob] 01/4/2020 18:19

the beneficial effect from Chinese flu is temporary

a few months at most


there won't be a pandemic next year

and probably won't be one again for the rest of your life


that's why this pandemic makes no difference whatsoever to the valuation of any of the companies that I follow

okay some busineses will suffer from consumer confidence for a few years (eg cruise line operators) but that will soon recover (people have short memories)

[the oak tree] 01/4/2020 18:07

Sainsbury and arguably the rest of the supermarkets have been overlooked as an investment. Here's why:

1. While there has been upfront demand for items like toilet rolls etc which will result in fewer purchases later in the year, the main driver to increased profits for this year will be from taking the money that would have been spent in other establishments such as Greggs, Costa, restaurants, schools, Uni etc and it being spent in Sainsbury. Thats not happened before. Like most establihments this company has fixed costs it has to incur so this increase in turnover will show a much increased profit.

2. Supermarkets are normally in a competitive struggle with each other. The last few weeks and arguable the next month or two has put that on the back shelf. Its mostly not about price it's about being able to buy XYZ for a family or individual. People don't Q round the block only to walk out the store without a purchase because prices have gone up a bit or more likley there are less offers. Sainsbury margin vary but is about the 2% mark. Getting it to 3% might not sound much but thats actually increased your profits by 50%. Thats huge in this industry.

3. They will have increased costs such as overtime for staff, more delivery trucks, 10% bonus for staff but don't miss the big picture. Its driven by demand and will be well compensated for in revenue.

3. As per the Government announcement there is no Business Rates to incur for the next 12 months. As per the company RNS this amounts to a savings of £500k+. In a normal average year that would mean on its own profits would double. FY2020 net profit forecast is £451k.

4. People will be staying at home rather than going on holiday. Again this increases demand. IMO people after a couple of weeks cooking meals at home and not eating out will start buying more upmarket items to cook with. Yes most will be worried about their jobs and won't want to spend too much but with few outgoings e.g. less fuel, less entertainment going to gigs, shows, cinema they will want to spend a bit more on the family meal at home. Those items in a supermarket like Sainsbury have much better margin.

So it's not just about more volume, it's the product mix plus increased prices on these products ie less offers for example, that I believe will probably lead to an outstanding trading update at the end of April when they release results for the last year.

Thats when they IMO get the re rating. Although it may happen when Tesco give their trading update next week.

So many companies have closed with zero revenue coming in. Here we have a company that people are Q to get into. Yet the share price has hardly moved.


IMHO....DYOR

[spob] 01/4/2020 14:52

one mans 'good' is another mans rubbish

hahahaha

[1savvyinvestor] 01/4/2020 07:36

Good shares being sold as well as bad. Silly sell off of Sainsbury

[ny boy] 31/3/2020 14:27

Spike to 225p, then sold off, doesn’t seem to be able to go on a sustained run..yet?

[rolo7] 31/3/2020 13:39

expensive legs of lamb and big joints of beef do people really have to money to by these 15-20£ each its no even a whole meal?!

[loganair] 31/3/2020 11:58

Aldi/Lidl now account for 14.3% market share with Aldi's market share now being only 1.8% less then Morrisons.

Alcohol sales up 67% due to the closure of pubs and restaurants.

[poikka] 31/3/2020 11:46

I suppose that a negative would be that shoppers are unlikely to have as much to spend.

[poikka] 31/3/2020 11:43

Maybe so, Tim, and that's what I was thinking, but then maybe folk will change their ways towards keeping a larger stock than they used to; so possibly just a return to normal trading, albeit larger shops and less often, initially at least, to avoid the risk of contagion?

Interestingly, most fund managers view Tesco as a better bet from what I've seen.

[tim 3] 31/3/2020 09:11

Things have really dropped off in the last week or so here many items including toilet rolls now in good supply locally.

Would expect next months figures to be much lower as people see shelves full again and use their stockpiles.

[poikka] 31/3/2020 09:03

Alliance "Lidl's 18% year-on-year rise was the largest of the lot. Lidl sales came in at GBP1.76 billion, nudging its market share up to 6.1% from 5.6% in the year prior.

Compatriot Aldi haf an 11% sales rise to GBP2.38 billion and its market share climbed to 8.2% from 8.0% in the year prior.

Among the "Big Four", J Sainsbury PLC booked the largest sales growth, rising 7.4% to GBP4.42 billion but its market share was stagnant at 15.3%.

Tesco PLC's market share fell to 26.8% from 27.3% despite sales rising 5.5% to GBP7.76 billion.

Walmart Inc's Asda had a 4.9% annual sales rise to GBP4.36 billion, but its market share slipped to 15.0% from 15.4%.

At Wm Morrison Supermarkets PLC, sales rose 4.6% year-on-year to GBP2.89, with market share down at 10.0% from 10.3%.

Of the London listed firms, online-only grocer Ocado PLC had the largest sales rise, up 13% to GBP432 million, and its market share edged up to 1.5% from 1.4%.

Iceland sales rose 12% to GBP632 million with market share up to 2.2% from 2.1% and at Waitrose, sales climbed 7.5% to GBP1.45 billion. The John Lewis Partnership's unit's share of the market was unchanged at 5.0%.

Finally, the Co-operative Group's grocery unit had a 9.4% sales hike to GBP1.80 billion and its market share climbed to 6.2% from 6.1%."

Kantar added: "Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to January 1, 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as sausages, oral analgesics and fresh bacon rashers."

Grocery inflation for the 12-week period was 0.9%.

McKevitt added: "We expect restrictions on movement and relatively full grocery cupboards will mean the incredibly high levels of shopping trips made in March will drop off over the coming weeks. Regular trips to smaller local stores are likely to continue, as people avoid travelling and queues at stores with one-in-one-out policies in place. Sales of long life and non-perishable items will slow as households work their way through stocks and consumers will focus on replenishing their supply of fresh foods."

"While much-reported panic buying has been concentrated to a relatively low number of individuals so far, we anticipate that this too will subside as consumers gain confidence in the retailers' abilities to maintain grocery supplies and keep stock on the shelves."

[spob] 26/3/2020 11:05

This is what Halfords is doing to protect its employees



Halfords Stores

CUSTOMER AND COLLEAGUE SAFETY NOTICE

We are currently open for business across a broad number of stores to support our communities in providing essential products and services. To protect our colleagues and customers we respectively ask that you observe the following guidelines:

Key Changes:

Customers for now will not be allowed into our stores, we will have a desk within our store entrances to transact and hand over products.

We will no longer be accepting cash payments for the foreseeable future- please have your card payment ready.

We are suspending some of our non-essential fitting services that take place inside the vehicle so we can prioritise vital car servicing to keep key workers moving.

Assisted sales including bike purchase, collections and repairs can only be carried out via a booked appointment.

Please maintain social distances of 2 metres at all times.

Please where possible use Home Delivery our Click & Collect service so we can have the product ready for you.


Obviously, we have also asked colleagues in the most vulnerable groups to stay at home and can confirm we will only continue to operate this service while we believe it is safe to do so for our colleagues and communities.

Our aim is to keep the key workers and businesses that are important to the COVID-19 response moving. Our teams play a critical role in keeping Britain’s vehicles on the road and safe to drive. Halfords is much more than a network of stores and garages. We provide fleet services to the British Transport Police, Border Control Agencies, the AA and several utilities providers including British Gas, SSE and EON. We’re also helping the key workers of Britain, the growing volunteer network and those of us making essential journeys, stay on the road with MOTs and vital motoring services.

If you have any further queries please go to our contact us page where our live chat agents will be available to help.

[whiskeyinthejar] 25/3/2020 22:33

Kantar says "accidental stockpilers" driving supermarket shelf shortages

“Ultimately we need to look at the empirical evidence and it tells us that temporary shortages are being caused by people adding just a few extra items and shopping more often – behaviour that consumers wouldn’t necessarily think of as stockpiling.

“People will also be eating in more as a result of social distancing and increased working from home. Consumers spend more than £4 billion each month on food and drink out of the home, a significant proportion of which will now be channelled through the supermarkets.”

“It’s not just how much people are buying but what. We’re seeing customers shop beyond their normal, regular product choice, putting pressure on supplies of items that aren’t usually bought as often. Purchasing typically made over a couple of weeks or longer is being concentrated into a few days."