Sage Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 04/10/2006 22:21

Moving into Healthcare in US looks to be badly timmed. Misys have come unstuck and they are the market leader. They noted very high competition. Probably explains why the previuos owners got out.

[lyntwyn] 21/9/2006 12:43

Accountancy software giant Sage is to sell Invu's document management software through its direct arm in the UK.

Interestingly, Invu non-executive chairman Daniel Goldman is the son of Sage founder, David, who died seven years ago.

Initially, the deal only covers the 14,000 accountancy practices to whom Sage sells direct, but Invu (NVU) has high hopes of striking a deal that gives it access to Sage's dealer network with its 600,000 UK customers.

Chief executive David Morgan says: 'Normally license deals like this are struck for pennies per user, but this is much more like a dealer contract'. This implies that Invu will get proper bucks for Sage sales.

full article @

[lyntwyn] 12/9/2006 10:40

Credit Suisse repeated its "outperform" advice on business software group Sage, slapping a 285p price target on the shares arguing that the group still offers good value. (sharecast)

edit 14/09/06 .The Swiss owned broker reiterated its 'outperform' stance and 285 pence target, arguing that although the shares have risen around 18% from their July low, they are currently trading around 10% below the mean valuation over the last three years. Overall, it says Sage still represents good value and expects the group's second half results (end October) to show both better organic growth and progress integrating the recent acquisitions.

[lyntwyn] 09/9/2006 11:09

Maddox, agreed. I would like SGE consolidate for a while, to allow the acqisitions to bed in. All sounds upbeat however.

09/09/06 Sage Group rose 5½p to 242½p after an upbeat speech from Paul Harrison, finance director, at a Deutsche Bank IT conference in London. He reassured delegates that the accountancy software firm, which issues a trading update next month, had not lost market share to Microsoft. Deutsche Bank repeated its "buy" advice and said it remained comfortable with year-end forecasts.

[maddox] 01/9/2006 23:16

Lyntwyn,

All the recent takeovers add firepower to Sage's future progress. Relying of course on Sage's continuing ability to incorporate aquisitions, strip out costs and widen margins. If Sage can prove themselves equally adept ith the current larger crop then they will deserve a very special premium.

Regards, Maddox

[lyntwyn] 01/9/2006 10:44

Some more +ve vibes to add to current momentum!

Sage Group was also in demand, up 2-1/2 pence at 241-3/4, helped by positive broker comment from Deutsche Bank after a company visit.

The German owned broker repeated its 'buy' recommendation and 305 pence target following a visit to the group's headquarters yesterday to meet CEO Paul Walker and finance director Paul Harrison.

The broker told clients that it continues to expect 6 pct organic growth in 2006 and noted that management is talking about slightly higher organic growth rates (7-8 pct) as being achievable in future years. afx

[honest ern] 31/8/2006 13:28

looks like a golden cross to me now?

[psps] 31/8/2006 11:54

nice to see it rise above 240p

[lyntwyn] 31/8/2006 09:00

edit.
Upgraded to 'overweight' from 'underweight' with an increased price target of 300 pence at JP Morgan this morning, dealers said. In a note to clients, JP Morgan said that as it becomes more concerned about the health of corporate IT spending, it believes Sage offers investors a more defensive, sustainable growth profile. It said the firm's revenue is driven by millions of smaller businesses and will likely show some improvement in second half of 2006 due to product shipment timing. Against a backdrop of recent disappointments in the sector, the broker said that Sage is set to deliver improving second half news flow. Additionally, it said at 15.8 times full year 2007 estimated EPS, valuation is compelling against the historical range of 15-21 times earnings. JP Morgan said that it would use LogicaCMG, which it rates at 'underweight' as a source of funds to increase holdings in Sage.

[maddox] 29/8/2006 17:33

Quickmind, no I ignored the subsequent split.

Geovest, lets hope we get a Golden Cross in the not too far future.

Regards Maddox

[quickmind] 29/8/2006 11:52

Maddox, Many thanks for your quick response regarding SGE IPO price. I take it the price you quoted was not adjusted for the 1999 1:10 split.

[geovest] 29/8/2006 10:26

Maddox, Sorry for the delay in responding to your question in 2662 (been away).
A golden cross is seen as one of the most bullish chart patterns, indicating a continued strong upwards movement in shareprice can be expected.

Honest ern - golden cross can only be 50 day MA crossing 200day MA (both rising. The 200day MA is currently at 246 and the 50day MA is at around 224. No sign of a golden cross, but still a good time to buy in my opinion.

[maddox] 29/8/2006 10:01

Quickmind,

I believe from memory it was 149p,

Regards, Maddox

[quickmind] 29/8/2006 09:25

Does anyone know what price SGE was floated at in 1989?

[maddox] 24/8/2006 13:03

Thanks Lyntwyn,

Nice snippet of info. Always interested to understand how the Analysts read-across from what is a competitor of Sage. The interpretation that what's good for Intuit is also good for Sage is interesting in regard to the typical comment (from some Analysts) about increasing competition being a problem for Sage?!?

Regards, Maddox

[lyntwyn] 24/8/2006 10:36

Sage benefits from Silicon Valley rival's strong figures
By Nick Hasell

STRONG full-year figures from a key Californian rival enabled Sage Group to shake off the downward tug of the wider FTSE 100.
After Tuesday's London close, Intuit, the $11 billion (£5.8 billion) developer of tax preparation and accounting software, impressed Wall Street by filing full-year revenues and profits slightly ahead of forecasts. The Silicon Valley stalwart said sales during the fourth quarter rose by 14 per cent to $343 million, against the company's previous top-end guidance of $330 million. But followers of Sage Group were most interested in the performance of Intuit's Quickbooks product range, where sales rose 14 per cent, indicating that demand for accounting software by smaller companies in the US remains strong. Further, Intuit said it expected an acceleration of revenue growth in the current financial year.

That update was seen to augur well for Peachtree, Sage's most comparable product, which accounts for an estimated 35 per cent of the company's US business. Dresdner Kleinwort, which repeated its "buy" recommendation, reckons a 24 per cent rise in Intuit's payroll and payment processing business is also a promising signal for Sage's Verus and Adonix product ranges. Elsewhere, Credit Suisse repeated its "outperform" advice, suggesting that forecasts of 7 per cent second-half revenue growth for Peachtree in the US could prove too low. The broker points out that Sage's shares currently trade at the lower end of their historical range, and believes second-half results, due in November, could send them higher. Sage Group perked up 4¼p to 233½p

[honest ern] 23/8/2006 15:14

Geovest maybe i'm wrong but 235sp looked like a golden cross a couple of weeks ago. Anyhow Seems we are flying now at last.

[lyntwyn] 23/8/2006 13:10

Sage 232-1/4 up 3

Merrill Lynch 'buy' -afx

[maddox] 21/8/2006 19:54

Thanks Geovest,

....and what's its interpretation, even if its not relevant to Sage?

Regards, Maddox

[geovest] 21/8/2006 14:28

Maddox, a golden cross is when the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day m.a. and both are rising. Not the case on the SGE chart though.

[maddox] 18/8/2006 21:01

honest ern,

Whats a golden cross and what does it mean?

Regards, Maddox

[honest ern] 18/8/2006 10:25

Anyone else aware of the golden cross on the chart. Enough to tempt me to top up.

[lyntwyn] 13/8/2006 15:45

amt - good post. As a long term holder I do have some empathy with the views expressed but wouldn't sell at this price. Its a matter of balance, and whilst SGE has to expand, is this in the wrong direction? I don't think management would have overlooked this point, - they don't usually kid themselves or the City. However some more answers to the many questions raised would be reassuring and I think these will follow shortly as they digest market reaction which has been very mixed and slightly wary rather than negative. I will hold for at least 300p.
Lyn



Buy Sage Group at 218.75p - Sunday Telegraph

[amt] 10/8/2006 23:13

Sage Group
Share price: 222.25p +0.25p
Questor says: Sell

SAGE, the only true technology play in the FTSE 100, has made what is possibly its riskiest acquisition to date - buying Emdeon Practice Services, a software and services provider to doctors and small clinics in the US, for £297m.

Sage has spent up to £2bn on buying 98 different companies since the 1980s. Investors have been broadly tolerant of the strategy over the past few years with the share price rising from 100p in 2002 to a peak of over 280p in February this year.

But Emdeon, its largest deal to date, could be an acquisition too far.

Sage's core business is to provide accounting software for small and medium-sized companies. It has recently been talking about moving into "verticals" to provide companies with industry specific solutions rather than just accountancy products. But it takes a leap of faith to believe the Sage line that this acquisition is not a major diversion from the company's core business.

It claims the 20,000 doctors surgeries that make up Emdeon's client list should be seen as SMEs and their primary business, as private healthcare providers, can be viewed as transaction processing, in billing healthcare insurance providers, for example.

But this ignores areas such as appointment scheduling, prescriptions and the creation and management of electronic health records.

Sage paid a full price for the company at 1.8 times sales in 2005 and 26 times EBITDA, but says further value can be realised by cross-selling its accounts software to Emdeon customers and vice-versa.

The company has another £200m-£300m firepower left but it is hard to see where they will find fitting acquisitions of a reasonable size. The fear is it will take bigger risks in areas it does not know, alienating investors with the inevitable impact on share price