Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 23/7/2021 22:07

apollocreed1 - that's a good idea. I will think about that.

[pvb] 23/7/2021 17:59

...Yes, I alighted on RICA as a cash holding alternative a while ago. Unfortunately(!) I didn't act promptly enough and was left behind by its recent rises. Still, I did at least already have a proportion of my investment in it.

[apollocreed1] 21/7/2021 18:17

I think the best thing is to be fully invested in RICA,CGT and PNL. When the crash comes, you sell these (hoping they've held up) and buy more equities. So you never have cash sitting doing nothing for long periods.

[pvb] 20/7/2021 22:56

@topvest

...if you have the balls to invest it when everyone else is panicking. The first part is easy. The second part is much more difficult.

Tell me about it! :-)

[williamcooper104] 20/7/2021 22:31

Makes a lot of sense I've got a fair chunk of cash (cost of inflation is the option cost of holding cash) and I'm buying out of the money options (SQQQ - 3x inverse Nasdaq and TMV - 3x inverse of the 30 year treasury)

[topvest] 20/7/2021 21:41

Key takeaway for me was to put safe cash into index linked asset classes such as bonds and also to carry a large cash position just in case we get a market crash.

I am never inclined to sell all my risk assets though as I am not confident of timing the market. Personally, I think the best I can hope for is to have a good cash pile in the good times, so that I can get fully invested in a bear market. On a 50% drawdown then the cash in your portfolio provides some out-performance and super-charges it if you have the balls to invest it when everyone else is panicking. The first part is easy. The second part is much more difficult.

[topvest] 20/7/2021 21:34

This was excellent....

There is an asymmetry of risk, however. Bonds are a mathematically bounded asset class - returns are certain to be low, a best case of 1.5% over 10 years before any inflation risk. If inflation risks recede, then bond investors will earn a zero or slightly negative after inflation return. If inflation remains elevated, then the risks for bond owners are catastrophic. Heads you don't win much, tails you lose a lot. The US ten year yield moving to just 3% (where it was in 2018) would cause a loss of about 15% to bond holders.

Heads you don't win much, tails you lose a lot!

[topvest] 20/7/2021 21:30

Yes, i thought their review was definitely worth noting. Indeed, I took some action as a direct result and switched a corporate bond fund into an index linked fund for one of my pension funds. What they say on government and corporate debt is definitely worth thinking about. Whether or not sustained inflation takes off is anyone's guess, but it has to be a reasonable likelihood (say 30-50%). If that happens, then there will be a 50% drawdown on quite a few asset classes with growth technology stocks most impacted. It could be truly awful. I am still 30% cash in my share portfolio and I feel comfortable with that at the moment. I'm certainly not going to sell everything but its definitely a time to be a tad cautious.

[spoole5] 20/7/2021 12:08

Agreed. It's going to a tough decade ahead, these guys know how to navigate the waters.

[irenekent] 19/7/2021 08:26

Today's investment review should be essential reading for all. What a folio of assets. A long way from soundbite advice offered by the press.

[jonwig] 09/6/2021 20:18

The May investment report:



I must say, their timing is very good.

[makinbuks] 28/5/2021 11:35

What do they tip as their inflation portfolio?

[jonwig] 27/5/2021 16:32

For a conservatively run trust, Ruffer Investment Company caught fire last year. After a relatively mild fall to 209p in the coronavirus sell-off of February and March it staged a very quick recovery that has kept going all the way to last night’s close of 291p.

In fact the shares gained more between March last year and today – 82p or 39pc – than they did in the 10 years to the eve of the sell-off in February last year (about 40p or 22pc).

Some of this spectacular recent performance can be attributed to its well-timed and well-publicised investment in Bitcoin, the digital currency. The trust allocated about 2pc of its assets to Bitcoin in November when the price stood at about $15,000 (£11,000) and progressively sold as the virtual currency soared to a peak of $63,500. It sold out completely last month.

This brilliant purchase is almost incidental to the trust’s credentials, however. It exists to preserve its investors’ capital in real terms and it has always chosen its mix of assets with more than one eye on what it has long seen as the inevitable return of inflation.

That view, for a long time deeply unfashionable, is now mainstream – with good reason in this column’s view. All that has changed is that the trust no longer sees Bitcoin as a source of inflation protection at its currently elevated price (even if it has fallen sharply since the fund sold the last of its holdings).

Instead, its managers have fallen back on their long-term favourites in that regard, namely gold (7.9pc of the portfolio at the end of last month) and index-linked government bonds (12.1pc).

We will have more to say on the latter assets when we look at our own anti-inflation portfolio tomorrow, but Questor is convinced that Ruffer Investment Company will perform well if and when inflation returns in earnest.

Now, as the consumer prices index shows signs of stirring back into life, would be a terrible time to sell this trust. Hold on.

[makinbuks] 27/5/2021 12:44

Judging by the headline its a buy recommendation

[lambeater] 27/5/2021 12:17

Thanks jonwig but not subscribed to the Telegraph. Would be great if you were able to paste the article though ;)

[jonwig] 27/5/2021 11:41

A puff from Questor;

[barbello] 21/5/2021 09:35

Good note from Kepler Trust Intelligence 12 May. In particular a chart showing that the Trust participated in rising markets but very defensive in falling markets (fig 3.) vs a traditional 60/40 equity / bond portfolio - reassuring, hope they can keep it up

[makinbuks] 19/4/2021 11:37

A positive sign that the boards authority to issue shares at a premium is close to its limit

[slicethepie] 02/3/2021 10:08

One of my biggest holdings is Kr1 so not missing out. I was just surprised at the amount of questions being asked about Bitcoin when it was such a small % of fund. In contrast a recent interview of 4 senior fm including Newton showed a complete lack of knowledge regarding Bitcoin and defi. It is a real marmite subject although it has quite an age bias.

[hootza616] 01/3/2021 23:30

In a couple of years you will wonder how you missed the opportunity as Bitcoin became mainstream. Well your experiencing it right now so if you don't take advantage then only yourself to blame.

[rambutan2] 01/3/2021 21:48

Good Chairman's statement I thought:

[slicethepie] 25/2/2021 17:22

On Wednesday Ruffer did an excellent overview of recent performance and outlook, this is available on their website and is 30 mins well. Crazy amount of questions about their bitcoin investment out of all proportion to actual holding.

[hootza616] 25/2/2021 10:03

Just to be clear I don't hold any BTC directly so as to avoid the tax implications on any profits. I hold this companies that have BTC as long term investment investment strategy or that mine BTC and hold themselves.ARB and MSTR both available in SIPP/ISA.

[jonwig] 21/2/2021 18:40

Hoot - you're clearly shrewder than they!
As RICA said on 15/12:

One recent addition, via one of the specialist managers appointed within the Ruffer Multi-Strategies Fund, has been bitcoin. This is primarily a defensive move, one made in November after reducing the company's exposure to gold.

Given that strategy, did it work? And by the way the RMSF was a top performer in 2020.
Good luck with your BTC position!

[hootza616] 21/2/2021 18:11

I was invested here when they bought BTC but sold wen they did. They clearly do not understand it so my money going elsewhere.BTC will break $100k this year with a few corrections along the way and if they did some research they would have known this and held.ARB is still the best SIPP/ISA BTC play by a country mile. Nasdaq listing imminent and plenty more upside to come.