Rpc Share Discussion Threads

[warik] 22/1/2019 13:51

I recognize this figure from one the RNS also i dont think when youre getting 741 for 1000 shares the number of shares has actually reduced the price and got the stock down thats how know its been shorted.

[liam1om] 22/1/2019 13:48

How do you know they shorted?

[warik] 22/1/2019 13:44

Somebody shorted the stock selling 230961 shares at 734.85p for £1,697,223.84 at 13.37 any clues why?

[squidsgone] 22/1/2019 13:02

Ok, agreed jeffian - thought you were referring to something else.

[jeffian] 22/1/2019 12:56

It would be standard practice in an agreed takeover not only to get the recommendation of the Board but also a significant proportion of the main shareholders to give irrevocable undertakings to accept (with get-out clauses in the event of a higher bid materialising).

[squidsgone] 22/1/2019 12:28

what undertakings are you thinking of, jeffian?

[jeffian] 22/1/2019 12:19

They will also want to have secured a certain number of irrevocable undertakings to accept from said Instis.

[squidsgone] 22/1/2019 12:18

I agree Phillis, which is of-course why the hoi polloi are concerned - the control of their investment is out of their hands.

[phillis] 22/1/2019 12:12

It (has) cost(s)a lot of money to get to make a formal offer - if one is made - having arranged suitable funding
Such an offer will have to be recommended so the BOD will have been suitably advised as to what level is acceptable to a core body of Instis

Whether it is high enough for the hoi polloi is irrelevant

[spot1034] 22/1/2019 11:31

As Warren Buffet says 'be greedy when others are fearful'. This could be a very good opportunity to buy a company which is basically sound but the shares have suffered for reasons which are fixable.

[gabsterx] 22/1/2019 11:30

My DCF model is giving a value of 590p and GGM is giving me 728p both based on aggressive forecasts.. I think we'd be lucky to get bailed out at 800p!

[dr_smith] 22/1/2019 11:28

There seems much confusion so back to basics for clarity:


Note the market cap top right at £2,995m.
That is the no of ordianry shares times the share price

The share price relfects, for any co, trades at the lowest price that some of the many holders are willing to sell at. Majority will value the shares higher, that is why they are holding them.

The linked article took the market cap and turned it into a $ figure. There have been no bids, no offers, the article was merely referencing a baseline, a meaningless valuation based upon the share price of the minority of holders, currently selling to market.

Forget RPC, it is the norm for any bid to be some margin over the share price The share price is a meaningless baseline. The margin has little to do with todays sp, more to do with the value RPC would have under it news ownership and a revised strategy, with cross-selling, economies of scale, reduced overheads.

How big that margin is the negotiated middle ground between the holders, who want as much as possible if they are to be pushed into being sellers, and any bid in bidders eyes will be as low as possible to secure, whilst staying within the perceived value under their prospective new owenership.

Please stop the ghost stories conjured out of thin air.

[cool runnings] 22/1/2019 11:26

The deal is basically done ! I don't get all this weird guessing , all statements have read that talks are advanced etc, do you not think a price has been agreed ?

[warik] 22/1/2019 11:22

If we dont get any news then we may not get a bid from Apollo as the BOD wont accept or recommend. I would love 900p however i dont see it coming as the share price is so weak with all the shorting going on plus Brexit. They wont pay so much when UK domestic policies in turmoil plus 1bn debt they will take on the purchase.

[squidsgone] 22/1/2019 11:15

Irrespective of where the II's have averaged to and therefore the level they are willing to accept, I think the BoD will have great difficulty recommending anything below £9 - tantamount to saying "we are unable to do better on our own". Reputations will be shredded.

[spot1034] 22/1/2019 11:03

'Small premium' surely can't mean 2 or 3 percent - you see that sort of movement on many days in the market! You wouldn't even describe that sort of figure in such terms. You'd think it would have to mean 10 to 15%.

[furrycoat100] 22/1/2019 10:49

There is a lot of guessing about the share price and I have no idea why £7.50 is being bandied about - no chance! I was hoping for about £11 but may have been over ambitious I reckon £9 - £9.50. All will be revealed!

[squidsgone] 22/1/2019 10:44

WYG - where has the 750p suggestion come from?

[whatsyourgame] 22/1/2019 10:37

If indeed Apollo are intending to make an offer around the 750p mark, it's surprising that Bain dropped out a couple of months ago, presumably on the basis that they felt unable to match such a price.
In such circumstances and assuming the BOD's recommendation is forthcoming, there must be some pretty negative aspects evident in the business.

[liam1om] 22/1/2019 08:06

No one knows yet. The rumour doesnt state.

[ali47fish] 22/1/2019 07:59

what st ts the offer by apollo per share- anyone worked it out in pounds

[warik] 22/1/2019 07:45

so basically the offer can go up or down based on the MV.

[whatsyourgame] 22/1/2019 07:29

No news as yet this morning on the RNS feed. This one looks like looks like it's going to the wire!

[budgiekevin] 21/1/2019 23:58

Using 2018 RPC presentation EBITDA was £590 mil and net debt approx £1.1 bil. Apparently 2004 to 2017 packaging industry EBITDA take out average was 8.3 and this rose to nearly 9 in 2017 H1. Assuming no improvement in EBITDA 8.3 times 590 less 1139 gives approx £3.6 bil which is near enough £9.00 a share. So if “our management team” have been improving the business the calculation should improve. If Apollo go much below then other listed companies could enter the fray as paying this sort of price could well be earnings accretive for them even before any synergy benefits.