Rpc Share Discussion Threads

[whatsyourgame] 01/12/2018 23:12

2427 - JP Morgan Cazenove's "Overweight" recommendation a couple of days ago, with a target price of 1000p might appear bullish, but it's nevertheless 10% lower than their target price for the shares just 7 weeks earlier.

[dr_smith] 01/12/2018 18:04

There have been comments on other threads re spurious prices on ADVFN today, yesterday?, maintenance assumed.

[rhubarbcrumble] 01/12/2018 17:58

Can anyone explain the share trades noted TODAY on ADVFN at 812-814p when the stock closed yesterday at 715?

Is there news?

[redartbmud] 30/11/2018 15:34

29/11 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 1000p

Buy the dip in the aftermath of a pull out by the potential bidders??

[jeffian] 30/11/2018 15:25

#2412/4,

Correct, bouleversée, but I accept that the result of 'no bid' would be further share price weakness in the short term.

[squidsgone] 30/11/2018 14:04

Agree - no point in a bid that is unacceptable, hence if there is an extension then RPC must think there is a substantial chance of an acceptable bid coming. Why extend otherwise at this stage?

[bouleversee] 30/11/2018 13:48

Well, I don't really want a takeover at all, especially at a low price, and I think Jeffian shares that view.

[squidsgone] 30/11/2018 12:43

Bouleversee
Don't want which bit...? An extension / increased confidence in a bid / removal of uncertainty or a hit to the SP?

[elanflan] 30/11/2018 12:28

Seems to be a hell of a lot of noise on this one today. Lots of EPIT/DI announcements by big hitters Barclays, Goldman l&g credit Suisse including purchases by Bain and Apollo. Somethings happening or loads buying in on the dip. What do you think?

[bouleversee] 30/11/2018 12:01

2420 -

Which we don't want anyway, do we, Jeffian?

[squidsgone] 30/11/2018 11:52

An extension on Monday will give more confidence of something potentially acceptable being offered, no extension will remove the uncertainty at least, even if the share price takes a further hit.

[jeffian] 30/11/2018 11:22

#2416,

The difference, bouleversee, is that they had competing bids on the table. There is no evidence that there is any bid here at all. All we know is that the Board has invited interest and named a couple of parties who may or may not have expressed interest and may or may not be working through the information that our Board will have given them to tempt them. I'm not holding my breath. Anyway, if we appear that desperate, we're just going to get an opportunistic low-ball bid.

[dr_smith] 30/11/2018 11:05

The rule/law on takeover period is presumably there to allow company and employees to carry on with work and future plans without being frigged around by third parties making life uncertain and destructive or preventing more positve plans.
Here we feel it is BOD instigation, so I don't feel they will curtail serious overtures.
I don't think there is an 11th hour, so long as wheels are turning, events taking places progressively and without delay (DD, audit, financier and s/h talks) then more time will be granted.

As JW121 says, there could well be negotiation games at bid time.. once those events and wheels whatever is goning on have completed ground work.

This is all done by people, who likely want it wrapped up before xmas, so I'll say again, xmas eve Monday and I guess it is mid-day (12.30 I believe) market close.

[phillis] 30/11/2018 11:03

Squids
In such an arrangement as this there are rules, usually covered in the NDA agreement
Highest bid wins (assuming there is one that the BOD will recommend!)

[bouleversee] 30/11/2018 10:53

The SKY bidding war seemed to go on for ever. What is the essential difference?

[squidsgone] 30/11/2018 10:36

Should one bid on Monday, I wonder if there is anything to stop an extension being granted on the other? If so, the '11th hour' is a moving misnomer. I guess, the BoD will have to respond to the first within a defined timescale though.

[jw121] 30/11/2018 09:57

Hard to answer that one as only they will know how far along the process is and if they are being strung along or if it is just taking time for the interested parties to complete the full analysis, funding etc. I suspect both will want to wait until the 11th hour before making any bid to avoid letting the other one see their hand and get a chance to better it

[squidsgone] 30/11/2018 09:48

Time for RPC BoD to remove the uncertainty here and refuse a further extension?

[googly2] 29/11/2018 12:50

Jeffian, you say they were doing absolutely fine until NT and the Blue Planet backlash came along and I would agree with this. Since that time though the share price has slumped and questions have rightly been asked because at the end of the day there could well be some element of truth in the NT claims. However, let’s be optimistic and if there is no justification in the NT claims then Bain & Apollo should have established this by now and if this is the case why wouldn’t they want to purchase such a successful business which is currently seen as being under valued. They would then be in a great position to make acquisitions and consolidate what is still a very fragmented packaging market. RPC purchased BPI two years ago as an entry into the flexible packaging market and to use it as a platform for making further acquisitions and consolidating in particular the European flexible films market but so far this has been restricted to purchasing just a couple of small players. My comment about not having confidence in the BOD going forward as a PLC is the negative impact a no bid outcome will have on the business, its share price and its ability to fund strategic acquisitions going forward. If there is no bid, we won’t revert back to the good time prior to when NT made its claims and I suspect it will only raise more questions about how the business is being run. As yet neither Bain or Apollo has made any sort of "bid" and they are only getting the opportunity to carry out due diligence at the behest of the BOD who would prefer to take the company private rather than remain a PLC. With regards to the anti-plastic lobby it may well be “emotionalR21; but consumer’s emotions can have a big impact on retailers and the products they put on their shelfs. Some supermarkets have already pledged to reduce the amount of plastic in use and in the case of Iceland they are committed to eliminating all plastic packaging for its own brand products by 2023. If you want to see how many of RPC products could potentially be affected I suggest you have a look at their website as they are far from being unaffected.

[essentialinvestor] 29/11/2018 12:00

The entire packaging sector has seen a savage de-rating in recent months,
even those companies with no plastics exposure. Neither is it just confined
to UK listed businesses. Look at IP International packaging, as just one example.
Without bid interest RPC would be way down south imv.

[jeffian] 29/11/2018 10:33

"The BDO has made it clear they want to take the company private and they opened the doors to Bain & Apollo but if no realistic offer is forthcoming then IMO their credibility to take the business forward as a PLC is open to question."

Disagree entirely. They were doing absolutely fine until the destabilising impact of the Northern Trust shorting attack and the emotional impact of the Blue Planet anti-plastic backlash (much of which probably doesn't apply to RPC anyway). I would be far happier to see this management put this 'bid' behind them and knuckle down to what they do best, including making strategic acquisitions.

As for selling out on the troughs, we have all been there but IMO if the fundamentals are good, the share price will sort itself out over time so pocket the dividends and wait for it to come good. I've had a few howlers, but my biggest regrets have always been those that I sold for no good reason other than that the share price had a downward period.

[phillis] 29/11/2018 10:33

this morning's price action not promising for sure

generally I would say the level of understanding of what is involved here in terms of DD is v poor

This is an international business and teams have to be mobilised to do on site DD
The potential offers then have to be financed with a lot of bank finance (say £3bn)

Guess what
The potential lenders ALSO have to do their own DD

[peaksntroughs] 29/11/2018 10:01

Or unless you do as I do which is buy on peaks and crystallise terrible losses on troughs - sadly I’ve been perfecting the art of this over the years!! Except if this does become a big old trough from no bid I will stay put - plastic isn’t going anywhere soon and it will remain a longterm hold. ’Nothing takes this long’ - well, with all the negative stories about RPC’s aggressive accounting practices, maybe doing full due diligence really does take that long. We’ll get news soon and good luck to all those holders that we get an offer.

[dr_smith] 29/11/2018 09:48

Peaksandtroughs:
Change your handle, it should be troughsandpeaks, buy on troughs, THEN sell on peaks. ;-)
I agree with all you say with slight twist on "reckon they were waiting for the results".. yes, in part.

With computing, every line of a balance sheet, profit and loss a/c is dynamic and you should be able to press a button and hey presto, current figures.
OK, some things like capital allowances may be batch processed differently, but no reason why this can't be compensated for.

Nothing takes this long that I can think of, only for potential bidder to do (or appoint auditors for) site visits to see if property/plant carries realistic valuations and if story on the floor matches the paper work. Likely some form of audit.

It crossed my mind the 2 potential bidders may want different aspects of RPC and could collude to buy without bidding against each other, then split the entity between them, but suspect that would carry legal risks, so dismissed it.

Given that BOTH potential bidders have needed extensions, it is probable that the delay is RPC side, not bidder (finance etc).

Aren't our imaginations wonderful, the scenarios we concoct on zero info! ;-)

[peaksntroughs] 29/11/2018 09:17

perhaps they were waiting to make a final decision until after the half year results earlier in the week? Now they have full information and have had plenty of time to do a full audit. Judging by the first hour of share price trading this morning either someone has inside information, or the market is jittery - INTU failure read across? I'm sitting tight regardless and certainly haven't given up the hope that a bid will be forthcoming. Both parties are still there after two extensions, which is a good sign. I reckon they were waiting for the results and an offer will now be forthcoming, albeit probably not top dollar.