Shell Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 24/2/2020 17:35

I see after hours rns, big American fund reduced holding in Shell.

[waldron] 24/2/2020 17:33

Price (GBX) 1,822.00 Var % (+/-) -3.41% (Down -64.40)
High 1,845.80 Low 1,800.40
Volume 10,126,323 Last close 1,822.00 on 24-Feb-2020
Bid 1,816.00 Offer 1,816.60
Trading status End of Post Close Special conditions XD

[essentialinvestor] 24/2/2020 17:30

Was £18 the low?.

As in an important medium term low.

[waldron] 24/2/2020 17:24

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 54.99 -5.09%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.69 -4.19%
Natural Gas NYMEX 1.84 -3.81%
WTI 50.755 USD -2.49%


FTSE 100
7,156.83 -3.34%
Dow Jones
28,081.12 -3.14%
CAC 40
5,791.87 -3.94%
SBF 120
4,591.43 -3.74%
Euro STOXX 50
3,647.98 -3.92%
DAX
13,035.24 -4.01%
Ftse Mib
23,445 -5.36%


Eni
12.168 -4.67%

Total
42.165 -4.81%

Engie
16.095 -3.01%


Bp
438.25 -3.37%

Vodafone
150.68 -2.71%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,821.8 -3.50%

Royal Dutch Shell B
1,822 -3.41%

CHUCKLE

WHATTA LOTTA B BUYBACKS TODAY

[waldron] 24/2/2020 16:26

CHEERS DAN














Jamie Ashcroft

13:55 Mon 24 Feb 2020

Follow Jamie on:
viewRoyal Dutch Shell Plc
Shell is still a ‘buy’ despite commodity slump and coronavirus impacts - analyst

Fuel demand is falling as coronavirus and quarantine dents economic activity in China and internationally.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc - Shell is still a ‘buy’ despite commodity slump and coronavirus impacts - analyst

European bank Berenberg is keeping its confidence in Royal Dutch Shell Plc (LON:RDSB) despite broad sector-wide expectations that coronavirus impacts could dent the financial performance of major oil producers.

Analyst Henry Tar, in a note, described a “sharp” in deterioration in the sector’s economics, as the China originated coronavirus outbreak has resulted in weaker demand for crude and gas.

Tar presently reckons the negative impacts will be temporary but noted that the IEA has cut its demand growth forecast by 365,000 barrels per day to 825,000 bopd, which is the slowest rate of growth for almost a decade.

“Given the sharp deterioration in macro environment year to date, we have run a sensitivity analysis to show our earnings at a bearish scenario of US$55 per barrel Brent, US$3 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) for European gas, US$2 per mcf US gas and US$4 per barrel European complex refining margins.
READ: Coronavirus - easyJet leads the airline retreat

“We estimate that in aggregate, our coverage would see earnings (EBIT) downgrades of more than 40%, EPS downgrades of more than 45% and cash flow downgrades of more than 20%,” the analyst said.

Looking ahead, the analyst reckons this transient dent in crude economics could be arrested by some or all of the following price supporting actions - OPEC+ quota cuts in March, a reaction (ie a reduction) of activity in US production operations in the second half of 2020, production outages in Libya, impact of ongoing sanctions on Venezuelan exports exports.

Tar said: “These factors increase our confidence in a recovery in crude prices to USD65/bl-plus for 2021 and beyond, assuming that demand normalises. Refining margins could also pick up, helped by refinery maintenance and International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules.

“We do not expect a near-term improvement in the environment for gas and petrochemicals, however, with both segments struggling with overcapacity.”
Shell is deemed a ‘top pick’

Berenberg rates Shell as a ‘buy’, with a price target of 2,680p suggesting some 50% upside to the current price of 1,817p.

Specifically, Tar highlighted that Shell is exposed to weak markets in liquefied natural gas and Asian downstream, but, the analyst said the Berenberg team still sees attractive underlying cash flow growth, driven by low-cost upstream projects in Brazil, Australia and the Gulf of Mexico.

“Shell has underperformed this year due to its relatively high exposure to Asia and LNG, along with its sensitivity to lower commodity prices,” he said.

“The company still faces headwinds, with weak gas and LNG prices expected to persist through 2020, and exposure to Asian downstream expected to negatively impact results through Q1.

“However, we believe that much of this is now in the price and that the company has the opportunity to surprise positively, delivering the highest total shareholder return of the peer group, provided we see a normalisation of oil prices as we head through the year.”

The analyst added: “Shell will benefit from the ramp-up of Appomattox and Prelude, as well as continued growth in the Permian in 2020.

“The company is targeting value growth rather than incremental volume, and production has been flat since 2016.

“However, it could achieve almost 5% volume growth (before any disposals) in 2020.”

The addition of the Prelude and Appomattox project’s alone could boost Shell’s cash flow by more than US$2bn, according to the Berenberg analyst.

Add related topics to MyProactive

[dandu69] 24/2/2020 16:18

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/913546/shell-is-still-a-buy-despite-commodity-slump-and-coronavirus-impacts---analyst-913546.html

[waldron] 24/2/2020 15:27

Dow drops 780 points as coronavirus cases outside of China surge
Published Sun, Feb 23 20207:06 PM ESTUpdated 20 min ago
Fred Imbert
@foimbert
Eustance Huang
@EustanceHuang

[waldron] 24/2/2020 14:30

montyhedge
24 Feb '20 - 14:20 - 9977 of 9977
0 0 1
I reckon 850 points to 1000 points off the Dow at 2.30. Of course Shell brokers, in their even today buying back shares, crazy, otherwise these would of been 1775p.


AYE MORE RDSA SHARES BEING BOUGHT SO LENDING SUPPORT TO RDSA SP

SO SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON RDSB SP

[montyhedge] 24/2/2020 14:20

I reckon 850 points to 1000 points off the Dow at 2.30. Of course Shell brokers, in their even today buying back shares, crazy, otherwise these would of been 1775p.

[waldron] 24/2/2020 14:19

CenterPoint Energy to sell nat gas retail business in ~$400M deal
Feb. 24, 2020 8:17 AM ET|About: CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

CenterPoint Energy (NYSE:CNP) agrees to sell its natural gas retail business to P-E firm Energy Capital Partners for ~$400M.

As part of the deal, CenterPoint Energy Services will enter into a structured long-term preferred supply agreement where Royal Dutch Shell's (NYSE:RDS.A) North American unit will provide gas supply and collateral support, as well as receive equity warrants.

CenterPoint Energy says it will use net proceeds of the sale to help pay down debt.

[waldron] 24/2/2020 13:55

U2 MARKY

I FEEL THIS WHOLE FIASO, MALAISE, CALL IT WHAT YOU MAY WILL GIVE US INTERESTING BUYING OPPORTUNITIES


THEN TRUMP WILL ARRIVE ON HIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN HORSE PUTTING ALL TO RIGHTS AND TAKE THE CREDIT

THE QUESTION IS WHEN

[supermarky] 24/2/2020 13:47

Thanks Waldron, it is good to hear other people's thoughts. Very interesting situation.

[waldron] 24/2/2020 13:44

supermarky
24 Feb '20 - 13:42 - 9972 of 9972
0 0 0
I have no hesitation anyone buying now is making a good decision in the lid to long term, however, it does look to me it will drop further.


WATCHING FOR DOW SELL OFF AND TOMORROW BEFORE DECIDING NEXT STEP

[supermarky] 24/2/2020 13:42

I have no hesitation anyone buying now is making a good decision in the lid to long term, however, it does look to me it will drop further.

[invisage] 24/2/2020 13:36

RDSB still buying back shares so paying dividend gets cheaper especially since buying back shares at a lower price too.This will bounce as it always has done, not worried being long here.

[cassini] 24/2/2020 13:32

I think you're probably right - who on the board would want to break a track record like that?

waldron
24 Feb '20 - 13:29 - 9969 of 9969

[waldron] 24/2/2020 13:29

I am confident that they will carry on paying the divi as has been the case for the past 75 years


CASSINI
24 Feb '20 - 13:26 - 9968 of 9968

[cassini] 24/2/2020 13:26

Not that I'm proficient at interpreting financial figures but the Earnings Per Share is given (in ADVFN) as about 151p and the dividend as about 142p per share. This is a dividend cover of 1.07, which is well below the ~1.4 lower end comfort level for dividend cover that seems to prevail for other large non-growth high cash-flow type companies. RDSB have over 350p cash per share in reserve so could pay the dividend if they so wish, but will they?

[my retirement fund] 24/2/2020 12:58

First since World War II

[my retirement fund] 24/2/2020 12:54

This will be yielding 10% at this rate, divi cut ?

[waldron] 24/2/2020 12:52

RDSB Berenberg Buy 2,680.00 - Reiterates


BP. Berenberg Hold 560.00 - Reiterates

[montyhedge] 24/2/2020 12:36

2016 low if this coronavirus last much longer.

[essentialinvestor] 24/2/2020 12:26

Never say never but much lower than 1775?,
find that difficult to see.

[waldron] 24/2/2020 12:12

Price (GBX) 1,816.00 Var % (+/-) -3.73% (Down -70.40)

High 1,845.80 Low 1,810.00

Volume 3,177,563 Last close 1,886.40 on 21-Feb-2020

Bid 1,815.60 Offer 1,816.00

Trading status Regular Trading Special conditions XD

[waldron] 24/2/2020 12:10

COULD IT WOULD IT

FALL OUT OF THE 1775 to 1875p BOX AFTER THE dow open