Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 20/2/2020 17:32

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 59.36 +0.41%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.77 -0.46%
Natural Gas NYMEX 1.99 +0.91%
WTI 53.91 USD +0.30%

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Euro STOXX 50
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Eni
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Total
44.75 -0.67%

Engie
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Bp
466.2 +0.73%

Vodafone
155 -0.51%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,926.8 -0.07%


Royal Dutch Shell B
1,921 -0.62%

WHATTA LAST MINUTE SELL OFF

[f15jcm] 20/2/2020 17:31

GENL seems to be benefitting from PoO

[waldron] 20/2/2020 16:46

Stocks are dropping in rapid fashion. The Dow is now down more than 300 points
Published Thu, Feb 20 20202:38 AM ESTUpdated 9 min ago

[xxxxxy] 20/2/2020 16:18

Could be time to top up. Buying period. My thoughts.

[xxxxxy] 20/2/2020 16:15

862. That is probably putting the finger on it. Should be ok in a while. My thoughts.

[montyhedge] 20/2/2020 16:09

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/royal-dutch-shell-RDSB/share-news/Shell-Sees-Coronavirus-Eroding-Chinese-Natural-Gas/81807498

[waldron] 20/2/2020 16:02

Royal Dutch Shell PLC, the global leader in liquefied natural gas sales, said Thursday that coronavirus was hurting demand for the supercooled fuel and prompting it to reschedule or locate new buyers for cargoes previously allocated to the Chinese market.

The global LNG market is more balanced after a four-year wave of new supply, the energy giant said, even with coronavirus crimping demand and sending prices to record lows since the outbreak began.

Growth in LNG production will halve this year, Shell said in its annual LNG outlook, forecasting an additional 20 million tons of supply, after a record 40 million tons was added in 2019. The effects of coronavirus weren't included in its projections, the company said.

Coronavirus has caused a slowdown in industrial activity in China, as well as hitting energy demand for travel and logistics.

China -- one of the top three global importers of LNG -- had been expected to absorb up to six million tons, or around one-third of the additional supplies in 2020 before the outbreak of the virus. This volume is now expected to be lower, Shell said, without giving revised figures.

Shell accounts for around a fifth of the world's LNG supply and, alongside Qatar Petroleum and Total SA, is one of China's top suppliers of the fuel.

"We are affected and handling the situation," said Maarten Wetselaar, Shell's director of integrated gas and new energies.

It would be "imprudent" to give any guidance on the volumes affected, given the situation is ongoing, Mr. Wetselaar said.

Earlier this month, China National Offshore Oil Corp., which buys about 40% of China's LNG, declared force majeure on cargoes supplied by Total, BP and Shell, according to tanker brokers and owners and a Chinese oil executive. At the time, Shell declined to comment.

In its quest to improve air quality, along with its growing energy demand, China has become the world's largest gas importer, with LNG imports doubling in the two years to the end of 2018. Electricity generation from natural gas emits roughly half the amount of greenhouse gas emissions than coal.

The Asian LNG price benchmark -- the Japan Korea Marker -- recently dipped to below $3 per million British thermal units, hitting a record low on Friday in the wake of the coronavirus. The lower prices were helping to attract buyers for LNG cargoes previously destined for China, "for example, India has been a popular destination," said Mr. Wetselaar.

New York-based ship broker Poten & Partners estimates China will cut LNG imports by 49 cargoes, or 3.3 million tons, between February and April.

Shell said the slowdown in additional global supplies is expected to be temporary, given that a record amount of new capacity was committed to in 2019, when investment decisions were taken on 71 million tons of new supply -- around 40% of which was in the U.S.

Shell forecasts that gas and renewables combined will supply around 80% of the growth in global energy demand in the coming 20 years. Within the gas segment, LNG is expected to grow faster than pipeline supply, at 4% a year over that period, Shell said.

Write to Sarah McFarlane at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 20, 2020 10:21 ET (15:21 GMT)

[f15jcm] 20/2/2020 16:01

GENL seems to be benefitting from PoO

[waldron] 20/2/2020 15:59

f15jcm
20 Feb '20 - 15:45 - 9859 of 9859
0 0 0
But gas has gone up this week.


you should not be surprised that a weekly correlation with oil and gas prices these days is non existent

Shell is a trading compnany as well and fast changing as are TOTAL and bp

[f15jcm] 20/2/2020 15:45

But gas has gone up this week.

[montyhedge] 20/2/2020 15:40

When gas price is below cost.

[waldron] 20/2/2020 15:27

f15jcm
20 Feb '20 - 15:25 - 9856 of 9856
0 0 0
Bloody annoying to be down when BP is moving with the oil price. What's holding RDSB back?

Not sure but RDSA is going WELL

And perhaps the market likes the BP news even better

[waldron] 20/2/2020 14:53

GOOD VOLUMES TODAY DESPITE THE MARKET MALAISE




Price (GBX) 1,931.80 Var % (+/-) -0.06% (Down -1.20)

High 1,942.60 Low 1,922.60

Volume 2,893,156 Last close 1,933.00 on 19-Feb-2020


Bid 1,931.60 Offer 1,932.00

Trading status Regular Trading Special conditions XD

[chiefbrody] 20/2/2020 14:44

Not a loss till sold.Av Price £15 so not that worried. Just less paper profits.Near 10% div yield helps a tad.

[montyhedge] 20/2/2020 14:38

You said that at 2550p 6% yield, 30% loss of capital.

[chiefbrody] 20/2/2020 14:29

Shoet term doesn't matter Monty.Shell will still be paying me juicy divs in retirement (10 years ++) and it'll still be a super power long after you and I have left this Earth.

[montyhedge] 20/2/2020 12:36

Low volume today, most of it buybacks and still can't get the shareprice in the blue, very weak sign.

[ariane] 20/2/2020 12:36

Beyond Royal Dutch Shell share price history: what’s the outlook for 2020?

In spite of the very rough 2019, in late December most analysts still considered Royal Dutch Shell a good buy for 2020.

The coronavirus has now been declared a global health emergency by the WHO, and it will take some time to bring the outbreak under control. However, the current energy price slump is driven more by panic than by objective facts. The oil ministry of Saudi Arabia, in particular, insists that the virus won't have a serious or lasting effect on the global oil demand.

Once the coronavirus is contained, the energy market is likely to rebound sharply, just like it did in 2003 after the SARS epidemic. Add to this the recently signed Phase 1 trade deal between China and the US, and you get favourable conditions for the RDSB price to grow in 2020.

From our Royal Dutch Shell stock analysis, we have to conclude that the price could go both ways in 2020. For long-term investors, the stock remains attractive anyway due to Shell's commitment to paying dividends. As a short-term investment, RDSB has now become very risky. As for the mid-term, it could still be a great buying opportunity – as long as you believe in the authorities' ability to contain the coronavirus.

[fjgooner] 20/2/2020 12:16

muppethedge never seems to research anything.

It just spouts drivel, looks for old web links to trash articles and yaps random price targets like a demented bingo caller.

No wonder it loses on so many trades like the crash results of Micro Focus recently. That was such a sweet day - made my year! :)

[stansmith3] 20/2/2020 12:04

montyresearch how much oil, gas and coal goes into creating electricityresearch the renewal plans for the nuclear power station fleetresearch how much the combustion engine car market grows every yearresearch how many electric vehicles have been sold to this pointthen you will see how ludicrous your point is

[ariane] 20/2/2020 11:46

Why Cramer Is Wrong About Oil Stocks
By Alex Kimani - Feb 19, 2020, 6:00 PM CST
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Cramer

Three weeks ago, Mad Money host Jim Cramer raised eyebrows after claiming that the oil industry was in the “death knell phase” and that “fossil fuel stocks are now like tobacco stocks”.
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“I’m done with fossil fuels ... they’re just done. We’re starting to see divestment all over the world,” Cramer said. “You’re seeing divestiture by a lot of different funds. It’s going to be a parade. It’s going to be a parade that says, ‘Look, these are tobacco and we’re not going to own them,’” Cramer opined in his usual fashion.

In the past, Cramer has received plenty of blowback about his stance on fossil fuels, and this time it was not any different. The polemic by the hard-hitting former hedge funder rubbed many in energy circles the wrong way, with some finding the claims flippant and outlandish.

One aggrieved respondent was Chevron Corp. chairman and CEO Michael Wirth, who predictably came to the industry’s defense.

Oil Not in Terminal Decline

Wirth said it’s unfair to compare the oil and gas industry to tobacco because oil actually plays a big role in the global economy, while tobacco can be more easily done away with.

“The reality is the world runs on the energy system that we have today,” Wirth said Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box”. “I think the comparison to tobacco is not an appropriate one at all. If tobacco use were ceased today, I think the world would be just fine. If we ceased use of all hydrocarbon products today, the world would not be fine, and I think that’s the reality.”

Which is obviously true.

Tobacco and alcohol stocks are regarded as sin stocks because people will continue to happily consume these commodities even in poor economic cycles--their life-threatening side effects notwithstanding.

Yet in the global north, the cigarette industry has been in terminal decline for decades now, with sales volumes recently tumbling in the double-digits. Incumbents like Phillip Morris and Altria are only barely hanging on after launching a series of RRPs (Reduced Risk Products) that can replace some of this lost business.
Related: The World’s Top LNG Producer Is In Trouble

Further, tobacco products exhibit lower price inelasticity compared to energy products like oil and gas, meaning demand is more strongly influenced by price. One study done in 28 EU countries found that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes resulted in a significant reduction in demand. The paper concluded by saying that all EU countries ought to levy higher tobacco taxes in order to increase consumer prices and in effect reduce cigarette consumption.

In contrast, the demand for oil is relatively inelastic with respect to price, mainly because oil has few direct substitutes. Similarly, demand for oil is relatively inelastic with respect to income especially in the advanced economies

If anything, oil demand is still rising mainly fueled by growing energy demand across the globe.

In 2018, the IEA reported that worldwide energy demand grew 2.3% Y/Y, the fastest pace over the decade. Fossil fuels met nearly 70% of that demand growth with renewables meeting the rest.

In 2019, oil demand grew sluggishly during the first half of the year before surging 1.1 million b/d during the third quarter. Supply growth, however, clocked in at more than 1.5 million b/d after Saudi Arabia’s situation normalized, which in effect kept the market oversupplied.

The IEA sees oil demand continuing to grow into the 2030s, while peak oil forecasts--the theorized point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum will be reached before entering a terminal decline--range from the early 2020s to the 2040s.

It’s quite evident that what’s ailing the oil and gas industry is not dramatically lower consumption--as is the case with the tobacco industry--but rather persistent oversupply mainly due to American shale.

Can Oil Bounce Back?

Wirth made a bold prediction that the sector can and will recover, and that the stocks will head higher once again.

“We’ve been in a rough period of time. Commodity prices had a historic collapse last decade. They’re still very low because we’ve got a well supplied market, and I think companies have had to re-size their investments accordingly,” he said.
Related: The New ‘Must-HaveR17; For Energy Hedge Funds

Like everyone else, we do not have any timelines when that might happen. However, It’s blindingly obvious that supply/demand imbalances are mostly to blame and the divestments that Cramer is talking about here are likely to persist until oil and gas companies scale down production appropriately, i.e., the big shakeout.

That said, oil demand could be sluggish at the moment but is bound to keep growing in the foreseeable future as the global economy bounces back.

The clean energy industry is growing at an admirable clip, but not quite fast enough to meet the world’s energy demand, which is growing even faster.

The belief that the fossil fuel industry is about to disappear forever can spook investors more than any old hat bearish argument ever could. However, it’s a big stretch to say that oil has already entered a terminal decline phase akin to the tobacco industry as Cramer has purported.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

[montyhedge] 20/2/2020 11:39

No just for oil and gas.