Revolution Bars Share Discussion Threads

[opodio] 19/5/2017 23:28

cottoner


cheers great articke

[opodio] 19/5/2017 22:10

Its just a load of leases with sales deteriorating

cost pressures will continue to represent downside
risk to estimates

[thevaluehunter] 19/5/2017 21:53

EBITDA is a good proxy for free cashflow because depreciation and amortisation are both non-cash. You can argue that av annual maintenance capex should be included.

[opodio] 19/5/2017 21:26

Breach of bank covenants soon

[horndean eagle] 19/5/2017 21:07

Never sure why people are so keen to rely on ebitda as a metric. Surely its only valid if depreciation and amortisation are not an ongoing expense. For RBG they will be. Look at the history of listed bar/nightclub companies and its absolutely dire. Nearly every single one has gone bust or nearly bust. Yates, SFI, Luminar, Chorion, Eclectic Bar etc. They have a theme that works for a bit and then gets old and stale and they either go bust or have to re-invest heavily to stay on the treadmill.

Just checked capex on existing estate. At interim stage it was 2.5m and 3.4m the year before. Confirms my theory about heavy spending required to keep estate relevant. Depreciation figure in the period was £3.6. So not a massive difference from capex on existing estate. Suggests not as cheap as the ebitda brigade will have you believe.

[5chipper] 19/5/2017 20:08

Maybe a couple of weeks of volatility to come but market cap to adjusted profits (stripping exceptional opening costs and amortisation + depreciation) is far far too low. Roughly 3/4 x... Positive lfl sales and strong pipeline of new sites to boot

[topvest] 19/5/2017 19:35

Well this stock is certainly now an interesting proposition. May well take a position as I agree with Paul Scott that this is a "good" profit warning if there ever was one. After reading the profit warning guide on Stockopedia it's good to resist the temptation on a day like today and wait a few months or even a year.

[thevaluehunter] 19/5/2017 18:46

There's no debt. EV/ebitda is sub 4.

[opodio] 19/5/2017 18:15

Breach of bank covenants soon

[ksharlandjiev] 19/5/2017 17:34

And I was told the AIM was the unpredictable market lol!

[thevaluehunter] 19/5/2017 17:31

So they've lost c2% of ebitda margin - unsurprising given the minimum wage, tax increases and Euro strength. Not sure that it warrants a c£40m drop in market cap and definitely a good entry point IMO. The EV multiple now looks really low and could get taken out by private equity.

[turbocharge] 19/5/2017 17:24

Institution shareholders:

AS OF 30 SEP 2016
Old Mutual Global Investors (UK) Ltd. 8.72m 17.44%
Schroder Investment Management Ltd. 6.01m 12.03%
River & Mercantile Asset Management LLP 4.77m 9.54%

AS OF 16 JAN 2017
Legal & General Investment Management Ltd. 4.34m 8.68%

AS OF 30 SEP 2016
Artemis Investment Management LLP 3.20m 6.39%
Invesco Asset Management Ltd. 2.49m 4.97%

AS OF 24 NOV 2016
Aberforth Partners LLP 1.90m 3.81%

AS OF 04 JAN 2017
Polar Capital LLP 1.46m 2.92%

AS OF 21 OCT 2016
Royal London Asset Management Ltd. 1.45m 2.89%

AS OF 02 FEB 2017
AXA Investment Managers UK Ltd. 1.37m 2.74%

[dusseldorf] 19/5/2017 17:11

I would be cautious about leveraged positions here - buy and hold will one day win, but don't rule out further falls short-term (sub £1?). The press is negative and trading pattern indicates a larger seller behind the scenes - seen it many times before.

All the new entrants today are mostly in for a short term expecting a positive bounce, if this does not happen its a slippery slope regardless of long-term prospects as traders chase losses against MM's who are working a volume sale.

I hope everyone here makes money, but don't bet the house just yet, IMO it's too early.

[turbocharge] 19/5/2017 17:08

It may be some comfort to know that those running Rev Bars have bought shares, though not substantial amounts:

4 OCT 2016
Mr. K G Edelman CHAIRMAN 15,000 @ 1.55 - 23.25k
Mr. M Shallow 12,903 @ 1.55 - 20.00k
Mr. M R McQuater CEO 113,650 @ 1.55 - 176.16k
C Chambers CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 9,677 @ 1.55 - 15.00k
18 MAR 2015
Mr. K G Edelman CHAIRMAN 30,500 @ 1.95 - 59.48k
Mr. M Shallow 12,750 @ 1.95 - 24.86k

[turbocharge] 19/5/2017 16:47

Was thinking of putting in a limit order at around 122 earlier, ended up just buying at 126...

That sudden drop in the last 5 mins, is that what they call a tree shake by the MM's?

[paduardo] 19/5/2017 16:42

well bought at 146, set a nice tight stop at 140 and the was stopped out. Bought back in at the bottom at 138, then some more at the new bottom at 126, then some more at the final bottom of 120. Don't think I can't take many more of these false bottoms....at yet another reminder of what the whole point of a stop loss is.

[muffinhead] 19/5/2017 16:36

broker margin calls into the bell