Restaurant Share Discussion Threads

[imranawan] 04/9/2016 21:47

Out of interest what other stocks are you guys looking at the moment other than £RTN. I'm not seeing much value around at the moment.

[philanderer] 04/9/2016 21:38

henrik , it`s a bet on that dividend being held I reckon.

360p - 380p trading range for the forseeable future unless a bid comes in of course.

[henrik viking] 04/9/2016 01:18

Philanderer,
Agree with the bounce today , much more volume on down days.
Will argue for much more downside as even some of the income funds does not find this a safe place to be and in particular ,as other parts of the business has been identified as underperforming and hence further provisions will be made by the new CEO after his review , which I am sure as we are speaking ,he is already doing having not started yet .
I will use the word kitchen sink yet again .
More sell notes to be published . Private equity will not touch this one till we see more clarity on the state of the business .
Enjoy Sunday .

[sharw] 03/9/2016 12:21

bend1pa - with regard to the dividend this stems from the conference call with the now departed Danny B on 29/4. My summary is here:



or you can hear the whole here:



Half the brokers are assuming that the dividend will be held at last year's 17.4p and the other half are taking the alternative advice of 2x cover and making it half of their forecast, so around 14 to 14.5p. The 15.95p that you quote is a consensus covering both sets.

[thevaluehunter] 02/9/2016 23:01

GBK restaurants sold for £120m on EV/EBITDA 12.5x multiple.
The restaurant group current market cap = £770m on EBITDA of £127m - share price is unlikely to stay half price for long!

[philanderer] 02/9/2016 17:11

Bit of a dead cat today but -9% for the week.

Good weekend everyone.

[imranawan] 02/9/2016 09:42

Has anyone got access to Stocko as I used to find their forecasts on EPS and divis were pretty accurate. Don't subscribe anymore.

[henrik viking] 02/9/2016 08:27

Citi's market share of RTN's turnover is very sporadic and in order to attract business post their note , they would have had to make risk prices , which means they should be long and wrong , UNLESS the have been selling already and hence could offer some bids with volume . As research department would not have discussed their upcoming note with the market makers .
As the price when they released their last note was north of 7.00, just a thought

[unnavailable] 01/9/2016 19:30

'Makes it very clear'...


'Could be'...

[henrik viking] 01/9/2016 19:14

Note in the statement , that the board makes it very clear that the provisons announced so far is not the end of it.
The company admitted that they identified
Areas in other segment of the business and
hence further provisions could be possible.

[philanderer] 01/9/2016 10:05

I know it`s a big 'if' , but if the final dividend is maintained you`re looking at a 4.75% yield at 370p.

Morning everyone.

[tintin82] 01/9/2016 09:15

Very Suprised to see RTN back at these levels. I thought myself airing on the extreme side of caution selling at 345p, but that broker note really took the wind out of the sails. Looking for re entry if this falls below 300 which I highly doubt it will do. Cost savings and a fresh face on F&B's is key.

[thevaluehunter] 31/8/2016 22:04

Looking back over the reporting it seems that L4L sales comparatives for the first half are much tougher than for the second half in 2016. This is certainly supported by the ytd LFL move from -3.9% to -3.7% in just a few weeks since the half year. I think this implies that july and august are LFL down c-2to3% which is a big improvement. I wouldn't be surprised if they claw it back to -2% for the full year given that nov-15 and dec-15 were v.poor last year. If the stock goes much lower I suspect that a buyer comes in given where the trailing ebitda multiple is and I think they are on course to surpass last years ebitda total of c£127m.

[philanderer] 31/8/2016 18:08

Sure will Salpara , unless they`re taken out before that update ;-)

[salpara111] 31/8/2016 17:31

The new guys are going to want to "kitchen sink" every piece of bad news they can get their hands on for the next update in order to give themselves a good run up from a bombed out share price

[tsmith2] 31/8/2016 15:47

340p will look to re-enter

[che7win] 31/8/2016 15:27

Bend, They didn't cut the dividend.

[bend1pa] 31/8/2016 15:20

Citigroup have had RTN as a Sell throughout the year so it's nothing new and not a downgrade. The results were bad, the div's been cut and the F&B problem is going to continue to weigh on the company for awhile yet. I couldn't fathom the recent sharp rally and still can't. Sp could easily be back to £3 before we know it.

[henrik viking] 31/8/2016 10:13

I suspect September will be a month of somber consumer spend retail and leisure.
As mentioned before the stock has never been the most liquid equity , continued selling pressure pre new CEO arrival will push the stock below 330-350
Good luck to new boy , he needs it

[tsmith2] 31/8/2016 09:48

Usually targets are to be aimed for..