Restaurant Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 29/4/2016 13:44

FT Alphaville on the conference call - scathing


And, fresh off the conference call, Mark Brumby.

BE
Timing unprecedented, content thin, co skewered on ‘will-you, won’t-you’ re dividend cut

· Little financial info (CFO now ex-plank) & Chairman Jackson not in evidence

· Mr Briethaupt lonely & out there on his own

· Has our sympathy but there’s a money bonfire going on, burning on his watch.

· CFO gone to ‘refresh the Board’. Rubbish, where’s the new one?

· This was as bad a conference call as we have heard in many, many years.

BE
Where to from here?
· Sales momentum awful. Co expects FY LfL sales down between 2.5% and 5.0%.

· Years of price gouging (a.k.a. ‘top quartile pricing’), underinvestment now home to roost

· Shares down 23% today, down nearly 2/3 from peak.

· £880m (yes, nearly £1bn) of somebody’s money has gone to heaven

· Estimates cut to c£76m (c30p EPS) & dividend uncertain.

[thomasthetank1] 29/4/2016 12:55

Read Panmure Gordon & Co's note on RESTAURANT GROUP, out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB00B0YG1K06
"The Restaurant Group has announced a further deterioration in profits and now expect FY16 PBT of between £74m-£80m versus our previous expectation of c£89m. The roll out will be slowed to 30 units this year (versus c44) and maintenance capex will step up to £35m (from £25m) with total capex of £80- 85m. Easter has been poor and LFLs has deteriorated further to run at -2.7% with total sales +4.7%. The company now expects LFL to deteriorate further and end the year -2.5% to -5.0% ..."

[philanderer] 29/4/2016 11:24

bouka, you`re right... restaurants are a cut throat business now , so much competiition.

[bouka1] 29/4/2016 11:18

DONT TRY TO CATCH THIS FALLING KNIFE

[bouka1] 29/4/2016 11:17

SIMPLY GET OUT-- SUB 200P AT ANY TIME-- SELL IN MAY GO AWAY-- COMING BIG TIME

[philanderer] 29/4/2016 11:09

Starting to look like a prime candidate for a takeover and canibalisation.

But no rush I would have thought as L for L could drop yet again if people continue to avoid eating at the outlets as is happening now.

Dismal outlook.


edit:

Numis, which rates the stock at 'buy', reckoned the company's new guidance was around 12% below current consensus.

The brokerage cut its pre-tax profit estimate for 2016 to £75.1m from £90m.

[mrthomas] 29/4/2016 10:44

Thinking of buying in the next month may be before the dividend comes out see how the share does. It has no debt making cash etc and could be a possible take over target now and its at a five year low

[philanderer] 29/4/2016 09:57

So if , and it`s a big if , the dividend remains unchanged, you`re looking at a 6% yield here now.

The trust is going to take some rebuilding.

[philanderer] 29/4/2016 09:53

Here`s the first downgrade , easy work hindsight ;-)

Peel Hunt retains' hold'.... target cut from 459p to 270p

I could do that job :-)

[philanderer] 29/4/2016 09:35

Let`s see what the experts change to after this pile of cr@p...

25th april Jefferies buy tp 500p
22nd april Barclays equal weight -
11th april N+1 Singer sell -
14th march Citigroup sell tp 370p
11th march Canaccord hold tp 400p
11th march Deutsche hold tp 525p
10th march Berenberg hold tp 550p
10th march Investec hold tp 440p
10th march Goldman Sachs neutral tp 525p
10th march JP Morgan neutral tp 640p
10th march Beaufort hold -
9th march ShoreCap hold -
9th march Peel Hunt hold tp 459p
9th march Numis buy tp 725p
9th march Panmure hold tp 640p

[tsmith2] 29/4/2016 09:04

Vouchers for 300 or more shares?

[carbon man] 29/4/2016 09:01

Kitchen sink job. All now in the price and still we get the vouchers for 300 or more shares. Long weekend, time enough to consider ones next move.

[tsmith2] 29/4/2016 08:43

Any broker updates, PE of 20, cash generative, healthily, good divided yield, entry point?

[henley2] 29/4/2016 08:42

Surely this must be close to the bottom now.
3rd profit warning, CFO sacked, 6% yield, PE<10 and rumours in the past of private equity casting an eye over them.

[scapital] 29/4/2016 08:38

Having a nibble here.

[abcd1234] 29/4/2016 08:35

yikes, best to know what u are looking at in future, and folks can avoid it... u say the same thing in retrospect on a lot of fallers:




ophir energy:

Salpara111 - 29 Apr 2016 - 08:23:49 - 87 of 90
Been watching this closely but now it looks like FTSE 250 relegation beckons so the share price will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future.


restaurant grp....

Salpara111 - 29 Apr 2016 - 08:20:06 - 662 of 663
Breathing a large sigh of relief this morning as I was ready to invest but the old adage of "profit warnings come in threes" was always in the back of my mind so I had decided to wait for this update before making a decision.


sepura plc.....

Salpara111 - 27 Apr 2016 - 08:22:41 - 1205 of 1235
I nearly bought into this one a few months back but it is clear that they are not managing the business well.
It will take some time to restore credibility.


N Brown plc ......

Salpara111 - 26 Apr 2016 - 14:25:56 - 163 of 170
Well, that was a rather sobering read!
I have had this one on my watch list for ages but felt that the business was always struggling just to tread water.


etc
etc
etc

[salpara111] 29/4/2016 08:20

Breathing a large sigh of relief this morning as I was ready to invest but the old adage of "profit warnings come in threes" was always in the back of my mind so I had decided to wait for this update before making a decision.
When the dust settles it might be worth a punt given that it is pretty cash generative and now offers a pretty decent yield.

[mammyoko] 29/4/2016 08:19

CFO fired also

[imranawan] 29/4/2016 07:21

Another profit warning from RTN this morning.

LFL sales have deteriorated to 2.7%, and total sales growth has fallen from 6% to 4.7%. PBT guidance has also been downgraded for the year.

[philanderer] 25/4/2016 09:19

Tough one Mr T.

For the time being I would see RTN as purely an income pay , that is as long as they hold their dividend of course.

This morning Jefferies have retained their 'buy' but cut their target price to 500p from 560p.

As for a buyout I`m not so sure.

[mrthomas] 24/4/2016 13:22

Been looking at this share and surprised to see the price so low in such a short period of time give the strong cash flow B/S and dividends.Question is do I take a risk and buy in now as could be take over or see how the price moves in the run up to the dividend pay out in June. Especially given the uncertainty in the markets at present.
IC have a good write up about this stock that how its come up.

[philanderer] 22/4/2016 17:59

Restaurant Group is a company that has lost its mojo over recent months. But could things really be so bad that investors need to fear losing their dividends?

..... there is certainly a convincing case for the shares as an attractive income play