Restaurant Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 07/4/2016 17:11

False dawn - seller still dumping - 1.5 million shares traded

[philanderer] 07/4/2016 09:19

Go on my son ;-D

[philanderer] 05/4/2016 23:50

As the fella said in his summary...


A cheap valuation reflects concerns about the company's future growth prospects.

LFL sales have started to fall.

Competition is increasing

[nav_mike] 05/4/2016 22:50

To be honest he's a power user of their Sharescope/Sharepad products and can therefore crunch numbers all day long as they have various scripts that enable you to do so

I use Sharescope predominantly for charting but I have to say that the data available for number crunchers is phenomenal.

[imranawan] 05/4/2016 19:15

Thanks for the link and makes for interesting reading. Out of interest how many of you guys do this much number crunching before buying a stock?Am genuinely interested as the guy clearly knows his stuff but always interested in how other PIs research stocks. I admit I'm not as thorough as him and look at the P&L, balance sheet and cashflow statement and make some assumptions based on these.

[adobbing] 05/4/2016 19:07

An interesting read although I don't think he understands Brunning and Price though;

"It also has some pub restaurants aimed at affluent pensioners who want to eat out a lot"

I believe that it will be the pub restaurants that become a bigger and bigger part of the picture, with the new sites already declared and the others I know they are looking at!

[nav_mike] 05/4/2016 18:38

One of the guys over at Sharescope has crunched the numbers if you fancy a read:

[philanderer] 05/4/2016 10:56

Still trying hard ;-)

Frankie & Benny's ‏@frankienbennys 3 minutes ago

Need that coffee hit? We got your back with unlimited refills all day everyday! #FrankiesFav

[philanderer] 05/4/2016 10:40

Not short salchow, long and slightly pessimistic. Small part of my portfolio, and worth keeping for the dividend at the current 17.5p as long as my capital is not eroded too fast ;-)

In too early at 400p and agree with you about the pubs.

Keeping a close watch.

[salchow] 05/4/2016 09:40

philanderer - I don't have much in here beyond what is necessary to obtain the restaurant vouchers and having originally had a very large holding at a low price a number of years ago I don't really care what the price is although after once having had a substantial holding one is always interested to see what happens next. I am convinced about the pub restaurants which I visit regularly but unfortunately they only comprise a small proportion of the overall business and F & B's is not a place I am likely to visit.

Reading your messages you seem to hold this share but have negative current views. If your pessimistic views are what you believe why do you hold? Or are you actually short!!

[bend1pa] 04/4/2016 23:46

Don't worry. A slowdown in business doesn't mean they are going bust. I'm fairly sure RTN wil eventually recover to the 500s, but that's some way off. I'd be looking to buy at £3 or less, just for the div alone, which is unlikely to suffer, unless there's a real skeleton in the cupboard which the BoD so far have been desperately keeping 'mum' about.

[philanderer] 04/4/2016 23:37

So down with the dogs yet again:

FTSE 250 Fallers

Nostrum Oil&gas (NOG) 210.00 -8.50%
Lonmin (LMI) 120.75 -6.03%
Soco Intl. (SIA) 150.50 -5.05%
Restaurant Gp (RTN) 369.60 -4.32%


Private equity must surely be looking hard at RTN now.

500p - 550p would take some resisting at the moment.

[eastbourne1982] 04/4/2016 18:36

Agree NAV_Mike, the results were fine, the outlook has killed this from an already depressed position though, on paper these certainly aren't overvalued but I couldn't buy with any short term confidence.

[philanderer] 04/4/2016 18:19

Yep, one way bet at present. Even those clever buyers like myself buying at 400p looking very stupid :-)

Could be some end of year selling to crystallise capital losses going on as well... and there`s plenty to be had here for sure.

Can`t see what reverses this short term.

As for chart comparisons , SPD is a good one .. and even NXT is starting to look pretty similar .. another growth story possibly blown apart recently.

[nav_mike] 04/4/2016 17:59

The last results were actually quite good, it was the forward looking statement that spooked the market big style.

They have shed their premium growth rating, but that doesnt mean they wont now overshoot to the downside. I imagine the drop today was partially to do with people doing some maths over the new Living Wage that has come into force.

Watching closely, but the trend is your friend as everyone knows

[eastbourne1982] 04/4/2016 17:27

At a pe ratio of under 10 these may be worth buying for the long term however short term they seem to want to head lower and lower and fundamentally the business is likely to weaken a little so what is going to take these back up significantly in the short / medium term ??

Down nearly 50% since November, has a very similar chart to SPD.

[philanderer] 04/4/2016 17:24

Still trying bless 'em....


Frankie & Benny's ‏@frankienbennys 27 minutes ago

It's competition time! Tell us what you your #FrankiesFav pizza is and one of you lucky guys will win a meal on us!

[philanderer] 04/4/2016 15:56

Wise thinking , I`d hold off if I were you Salpara ,it`s turning into a pile of sh*te... 750k traded today and mostly dumped on the market.

Next solid chart support around 290p from 2012.


edit: final turnover 1 million +

UT @ 369.6p

So that`s another -4.5% down today for the share price and Citgroup`s 370p target has been hit in a couple of weeks since they said sell . Very clever people ;-)

Here`s the full list....


14th march Citigroup sell tp 370p
11th march Canaccord hold tp 400p
11th march Deutsche hold tp 525p
10th march Berenberg hold tp 550p
10th march Investec hold tp 440p
10th march Goldman Sachs neutral tp 525p
10th march JP Morgan neutral tp 640p
10th march Barclays equal weight tp 475p
10th march Beaufort hold -
9th march N+1 Singer sell tp 450p
9th march ShoreCap hold -
9th march Peel Hunt hold tp 459p
9th march Numis buy tp 725p
9th march Panmure hold tp 640p


9th march ++++ Results ++++

[salpara111] 04/4/2016 15:03

The main thing holding me back here is the expression that "profit warnings come in threes"
I am not saying that one is coming but I would rather wait until the share price is back in a rising trend even if it means paying a bit more.
I have been bitten a couple of times quite badly in the last year so I am no longer willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

[imranawan] 02/4/2016 15:59

El Chupacabra - are you short of RTN. That article has very little to do with RTN.

I wouldn't call RTNs margin of 13% as wafer thin? Also the brands within their portfolio help differentiate them from generic restaurants.

[el chupacabra] 02/4/2016 13:57

not about RTN but an eye opener none teh less

[philanderer] 01/4/2016 14:11

Frankie & Benny's ‏@frankienbennys 8 minutes ago

Did we manage to fool any of you Frankie's fans?! Happy April Fools Day!

[philanderer] 01/4/2016 13:01

'Fall from grace'

A tougher than expected trading environment has also weighed on the shares of Restaurant Group(LSE: RTN), which have lost nearly half their value this year after two profit warnings. Last year the group's shares commanded a premium valuation of 22.2 times forward earnings, but now the valuation has fallen back to earth.
Restaurant Group's shares currently trade at a more modest forward P/E of 11.4 and support a dividend yield of 4.5%. That being said, according to current City estimates, Restaurant Group's earnings growth is on track to grind to a halt this year. The company's growth days may be behind it.