The Renewables Infrastru... Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 05/3/2019 11:37

solid update, thanks jon.

[jonwig] 05/3/2019 11:07

Revised nav on asset life extension;

The unaudited NAV per Ordinary Share as at 28 February 2019 was 111.6p (ex-dividend) and 113.2 pence on a cum-dividend basis. This compares to a NAV of 108.9p pence per Ordinary Share as at 31 December 2018.

At IPO in 2013, the assumed operating life of an asset was 25 years. Assumptions adopted in the December 2018 NAV typically ranged from 25 years to 30 years from the date of commissioning, with an average of 26 years for the wind portfolio and 30 years for the solar portfolio. The overall average across the December 2018 Portfolio was 27 years (31 December 2017: 27 years).

As a result of the technical review, the overall asset life across the Current Portfolio as at 28 February 2019 was increased to 29 years, with an average of 29 years for the wind portfolio and an unchanged average of 30 years for the solar portfolio.

[stewart64] 24/2/2019 12:21

Anybody explain the glitch ( at least I hope it's a glitch) various sites showing a revised share price of 113.0 off an unrealistic 10p spread...108.0/118.0? Telegraph amongst them. Thanks....

[stewart64] 22/2/2019 15:41

Got a feeling that the share issue is holding this one back. When you offer to existing shareholders at a presumed discount especially. The institutional only offer of 127p on Greencoat led to an initial fall to 129p; but whilst Trig has fallen from 121p at that point, Greencoat has shot up to 138p. I sold out at 137p yesterday and bought a few more here. Too soon on Greencoat it seems. Although I did buy extra Greencoat shares at 130p during the share issuance panic rout. I guess you can't trade perfectly.

There is a bit of misalignment now on fundamentals between the two. Greencoat looking toppy, Trig cheap.

[a0002577] 21/2/2019 12:15

These figures might be of interest

EPIC Bid Offer Div BidYld OfferYld Nav Discount
BSIF 128.00 129.00 7.68 6.00% 5.95% 114.10 13.06%
Jlen 110.50 111.50 6.53 5.91% 5.86% 99.60 11.95%
TRIG 117.80 118.00 6.50 5.52% 5.51% 108.90 8.36%
FSFL 112.50 113.00 6.58 5.85% 5.82% 107.60 5.02%
UKW 135.40 135.80 6.94 5.13% 5.11% 123.10 10.32%
NESF 115.00 115.50 6.65 5.71% 5.66% 108.80 8.00%

Sorry about the layout getting a tad messed up

[jonwig] 20/2/2019 05:40

Toppix - yes, I missed that statement: open offer next month.

[steve73] 19/2/2019 08:36

A couple of interesting derived figures from todays report.

We produced 2,011 GWhr in total from an installed capacity of 1,110 MW (i.e. possible maximum of 1,110*365*24/1000 = 9724 GWhr.

So the utilization was 2011/9724 or 20.7%...

Seems reasonable.. depending on the solar:wind relative contribution.

The other interesting "metric" is the NAV per household supplied.
i.e. 1269MM / 650,000 or just under 2,000 GBP as the cost of supplying each household. Seems quite a low cost to me.

[toppix] 19/2/2019 08:20

Existing shareholders will be included in the future offer - a modest discount would be nice.

[cwa1] 19/2/2019 08:15

Thanks for highlighting that jonwig, interesting.

[jonwig] 19/2/2019 07:21

Final results quite impressive. Note the new share issuance programme. Would be nice to get a slice of the action there. Also divi target 6.64p.



This is the bit I was looking for:

The Board notes the recent market commentary on extended asset life assumptions. This is an area that we, together with the Managers, keep under regular review.

We consider asset lives on an asset-by-asset basis taking into account technical advice. As well as the structural durability of the asset in question, consideration is given to maintenance costs, asset down-time and power price capture rates, which advisers anticipate will reduce over time compared to base-load prices due to the expected increase in low marginal-cost renewables generation (an effect which is also referred to as 'cannibalisation'). In addition, we evaluate the likelihood of obtaining planning and lease extensions.

At IPO in 2013, the assumed operating life of an asset was 25 years. Assumptions adopted in the year-end valuation typically range from 25 to 30 years from the date of commissioning, with an average 26 years for the wind portfolio and 30 years for solar portfolio. The overall average across the portfolio as at 31 December 2018 was 27 years (31 December 2017: 27 years).

The Operations Manager is currently undertaking a detailed technical review of these assumptions to consider if longer lives should be assumed. Whilst increases will not be appropriate in all cases, an increase of between 2 and 3 years on average across the portfolio is being considered. Sensitivity analysis indicates that an increase in asset life of one year could increase the portfolio valuation by the equivalent of 1.1p per share (ie an increase to NAV per share of 2-3p, absent other movements).

[jonwig] 17/2/2019 12:16

No, nothing on batteries, but then it's a small sub-sector at present. The pages on nuclear are EU-centric and don't add anything useful. That's all I've looked at for now.

[a0002577] 17/2/2019 11:56

So, Jonwig - what did you make of it? Rather lightweight I thought and no mention of batteries required to store electicity for night time or low wind speed times.

Their disclaimer says it all really and included " Hardman & Co’s research is paid for by the companies, legal entities and issuers about which we write "

[jonwig] 17/2/2019 10:13

Hardman survey of renewable generation:

[jonwig] 14/2/2019 08:47

Article on Citywire suggests they could follow UKW and extend life of their wind assets by 5 years. NAV uplift follows.

FY results on 19th - could announce something there?

[gateside] 13/2/2019 21:24

Ex-dividend tomorrow morning

[jonwig] 02/2/2019 17:09

stewart - Stockopedia suggests eps of 13.9p for 2018 and 2019 - quite a discrepancy! (And I don't beleive it.) Only one broker covers. Yes, they've issued loads of shares so there will be some cash drag, explaining the PER discrepancy.

[a0002577] 24/12/2018 12:02

Not sure that an share price increase is a good thing - unless you want to trade them for something else. Most of us have them for income but as I have said before all the green infrastructure share prices go walk about every year and you can make an extra 2 or more % points by trading out and buying another - and very probably capture another dividend as well. Otherwise the vagaries of share price movements matter not a jot.

Happy Christmas - A000..

[stewart64] 22/12/2018 07:30

A good day for UK investment trusts yesterday, don't know why. Had a bit of a shock that GCP, Trig and Greencoat had all turned blue on my portfolio ( when I looked this morning) even as the FTSE languishes. To think back in the Spring these were the turkeys of the pack and now they are holding the portfolio up during this rout.

[toppix] 16/12/2018 17:25

I have bought on the basis that a decent yield is paid.

The RES portfolio is impressive.

[a0002577] 22/10/2018 10:42

Totally agreed, Jonwig - see what I have said on JLEN thread.

[jonwig] 22/10/2018 07:20

Further fundraising of shares proposed:



Desperate to avoid giving all shareholders participation! No doubt their proposal will succeed, because it will be voted up by the same institutions who will benefit.

[melody9999] 12/9/2018 17:24

TRIG battery storage project.

hxxps://renewablesnow.com/news/res-commissions-20-mw-battery-in-scotland-626503/

[gateside] 09/8/2018 07:39

Director bought 20k worth of shares yesterday too.I believe that TRIG is best value of all the 6 Renewable Funds at present. Bright future.

[a0002577] 08/8/2018 10:55

Yes they are, Jonwig. What is really interesting is their comment on power prices

Power prices achieved during the period were markedly higher than forecast and accounted for the majority of the increase in the average revenues achieved per MWh which, including subsidies, was £98.62 (H1 2017: £88.78). The past six months has seen upward pressure on the gas prices which tends to be the predominant driver of wholesale electricity prices. This can be attributed to increased demand for liquified natural gas (partly because of the cold winter) and the strength in oil prices to which gas prices are partly linked. Carbon prices have also increased following reforms to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. By contrast, longer term power price forecasts are down slightly primarily due to more cautious long-term gas prices being assumed.

Others have been blaming longer term power price forecasts as a reason for their fall in NAV.