Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 18/11/2022 11:31

Pretty interesting company call with Dan Arias from Stifel the other day. News on its way the next few weeks. Interesting times indeed

[wan] 16/11/2022 17:11

Courtesy of Ramyris over on Discord in the US:

Wednesday 16th November 2022

Renalytix initiated buy at Goodbody Stockbrokers

Target price 300p

[wan] 16/11/2022 12:45

Edit to the above post - In addition, one could also imagine that a Renalytix strategic partner might also be interested in extending into kidney transplant testing.

[wan] 16/11/2022 12:44

Given the connection with Renalytix and for those interested.

Food for thought -

In my view, Eurofins is pulling ahead of Natera and CareDx in terms of a differentiated transplant test offerings, plus there is ongoing litigation between Natera and CareDx.

Verici is also offering unique and differentiated kidney transplant tests compared to Natera and CareDx, initially launching Tutivia.

I also note that Eurofins have recently announced an expansion of Trugraf into liver transplant testing -
Over 10,0000 liver transplants are performed annually in the US at a cost of $1m per liver transplant (source Eurofins).

Virici has also intimated their intention to enter liver transplant testing at the appropriate time.

Liver transplant testing and other testing potential aside, Verici has further differentiated kidney transplant tests in their pipeline, Clarava(TM), a pre-transplant prognosis test for the risk of early acute rejection, and Protega(TM), a liquid biopsy that aims to predict the risk of fibrosis and long-term graft failure. With both of these tests currently in Clinical Validation Studies, Clarava(TM) has already demonstrated clinical significance via initial validation study results.

Furthermore, in January 2022 Verici entered into a collaboration with Illumina. Collaborating with such a high-quality partner as Illumina is an indicator of the strength of Verici's platform and providing Verici with expansion and collaboration opportunities.

In my view, Verici is likely to be a very attractive candidate for strategic partnerships, and depending on who that partner might be(any of the above players, or indeed another), there is potential to enter/expand a market with urgent clinical need, and also potential to be disruptive to the current state of play with regard to Natera and CareDx (litigation and testing).

I would therefore consider that Verici must surely be on both radars of Natera ($521.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, plus yesterday raised additional funding via public offering of 11.43 million shares at $35 per share) and careDx (Cash, and marketable securities $291.3 million).

And I wouldn't discount cash rich Eurofins thwarting the ability of the others to get closer to their transplant test offerings, nor perhaps an existing large US diagnostic player entering/expanding the market via a strategic partnership with Verici. All of which may fit well with Verici's stated aim of exploring potential new commercial opportunities to enhance their platform, such as adding new technology and AI capabilities.

In addition, one could also imagine that a Renalytix strategic partner might also be interested in extending into kidney transplant testing.

Verici has stated that this is a transitional year having transitioned from a fully R&D-focused company, to one with commercial products, and that management look forward to the commercial progress and further milestones for the rest of the year.

As always please conduct your own research when making investment decisions, as the views above are strictly based on my own research and reasonings etc.

[mr roper] 16/11/2022 09:21

Stifel call today 15.35 Eastern Time

[wan] 16/11/2022 05:56

Back by popular demand. Our 11/1 blog was a big hit with our broadest audience reach to date. More color was requested on why removing race from kidney equations is so important. We regrouped with Dr. Keith Norris to get the answer. Watch here -

[wan] 15/11/2022 09:47

Note to the above - not all of the pages/links are fully functioning yet.

[wan] 15/11/2022 08:58

Verici's website has been materially upgraded, and it would thus appear that there may be an announcement of the soft launch for Tutivia as there is also an ordering process.

It's worth investors visiting the various pages -



At the end of FY22 Renalytix held 9,831,681 shares in Verici Dx

[wan] 12/11/2022 05:10

Courtesy of Ramyris over on Discord in the US:

Singer Capital Markets note -

Set up largely complete, poised for significant growth

“Our DCF-derived TP is 167p, but we see the medium term potential as significantly in excess of this.”


Aligns quite well with my own thoughts and my post 2019 above.

[mikemine1] 10/11/2022 19:44

It seems that the insurance companies are way ahead of the FDA.

I heard from another source that the FDA staff were burnt out due to the pressure to fast track covid related products during the covid scare. The workload increased dramatically and some staff hardly got time off. Rotation and new staff(inexperienced) have been drafted in and in many cases the validations have started all over again. Inevitable this has slowed things down and has led to backlogs.

I have no idea if this is what happened in RENX's case but it certainly fits what we have seen.

The case for RENX must be very strong or all these companies and institutions would not have been so eager to sign up. Personally, I have no doubt that FDA approval will come in Q1. Whether this turns the share price round is anybody's guess but it wouldn't be a negative that's for sure.

[wan] 10/11/2022 13:58

Two new Commercial Health Plans have been added, Aetna Better Health Louisiana and Devon Health PPO, bringing the current total to 26.


Aetna Better Health of Louisiana is part of Aetna®, one of the nation's leading health care providers and a part of the CVS Health® family.

Contigo Health, LLC, a Premier, Inc. company and a provider of comprehensive services that optimize employee health benefits, closed its transaction to acquire key assets from TRPN Direct Pay, Inc. and Devon Health, Inc. (collectively, “TRPN”).

[cambridgedon] 09/11/2022 15:37

Hasn't taken long for the results hype to dissipate!
Down from 90p to 58 in a few days.
Depressing.
CD

[mr roper] 02/11/2022 16:05

Just noticed in the last VA paper there that there is a large amount of contributors from University of Utah and Salt Lake City...coincidence..

[mr roper] 02/11/2022 12:13

Good posts, wan. Fingers crossed

[wan] 02/11/2022 09:24

Staying with an emphasis on addressing disparities in healthcare access.

ASN's Kidney Week starts tomorrow November 3-6, 2022.

Renalytix previously reported the following -

KidneyIntelX Clinical Utility and Health Economics Validated in Multiple Data Releases at American Society of Nephrology

Four presentations, including first clinical utility findings from multi-year real world evidence results from a major healthcare system underscore value of KidneyIntelX™ platform in improving cost economics for Medicare population

NEW YORK and SALT LAKE CITY, Oct. 17, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Renalytix plc (NASDAQ: RNLX) (LSE: RENX) today announced that four scientific presentations have been accepted at the upcoming American Society of Nephrology (ASN) Kidney Week (November 3-6, 2022) taking place in Orlando, Florida.


but I also note another study publication of particular interest during Kidney Week -

602 Diabetic Kidney Disease: Clinical

Authors
Kim, Kibum, University of Illinois at Chicago College of Pharmacy, Department of Pharmacy Systems, Outcomes and Policy, Chicago, Illinois, United States
Nyman, Heather A., University of Utah College of Pharmacy, Department of Pharmacotherapy, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
Crook, Jacob L., VA Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
Lu, Chao-Chin, VA Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
Nelson, Richard E., VA Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
LaFleur, Joanne, University of Utah Department of Pharmacotherapy, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States

Group or Team Name - DeCIPHER

BACKGROUND
In the Veteran’s Health Administration (VHA), patients at high risk of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) require interventions to delay progression to end-stage disease. We examined progression rates for DKD stages 3-5 in US veterans.

METHODS
We identified veterans with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and DKD using diagnosis codes, prescription records, problem lists, and lab test results from October 2015 through 2021. Prevalent and incident DKD stages were characterized using KDIGO definitions. We used descriptive statistics to characterize the cohort and DKD stage prevalence and incidence rates.

RESULTS
Out of 2.1 million US veterans with T2D, most (1.5 million [75.1%]) had reduced renal function (<90 mL/min/1.73m2). The mean age was 67.9, and most were male (95.3%) and White (72.4%), Black (19.0%) or Asian American (2.2%). Prevalent and incident DKD stage findings are in the Table. At baseline, 37.6% of T2D veterans with below-normal renal function had DKD. Over a mean follow-up time of 3.3 years, their annual risk of progressing to stages 3-5 was 10.8%. For veterans with prevalent DKD stages 3-4, annual risks of progressing were 26.5%, 16.1%, and 24.5% for stages 3a, 3b, and 4, respectively.

CONCLUSION
Only 4.6% of the VHA’s large T2D population had DKD stages 4-5. Another 58% had filtration rates <90, with about 47.9% of these progressing to higher stages annually (121,000 veterans). These findings suggest that interventions are needed to slow DKD progression at early stages, minimizing the burden of DKD in this population.


Given that Renaltix efforts with the Veterans Administration Health System have continued to advance (albeit slower than hoped) and is a highly scalable program, and Renalytix expect to see volumes increase in November and December of this year, along with also being in the development stage for task orders and laboratory services agreements in other VA locations, in my view the above appears to bode well.

[wan] 02/11/2022 09:08

The following is my response on Discord in the US to a suggestion that Renalytix tweet/article yesterday seems to fit really well my long post further above (1997) -


My response -
I would also add that Dr. Keith Norris of UCLA is a co-author of the following study -
28th October 2022
New onset chronic kidney disease in people with diabetes highest among ethnic, racial minorities. “The results of our study constitute a call to action to institute directed, targeted efforts aimed at deliberately shifting the trajectory of persistently high rates of diabetes-related CKD and kidney failure that disproportionately affect racial and ethnic minority groups,” said co-author Dr. Susanne Nicholas, associate professor of medicine in the division of nephrology at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA and chair of the UCLA Nephrology Racial and Health Equity Committee. “The first step should be to increase the rates of screening and detection of CKD in individuals with diabetes.”

“Given the rapidly growing population with diabetes in the United States and the corresponding high rates of kidney failure, the persistently high incidence of CKD marked by racial and ethnic disparities is troubling,” said lead author Dr. Katherine Tuttle, executive director for research at Providence Inland Northwest Health and professor of medicine at the University of Washington. “Inclusive strategies for prevention, detection, and intervention are needed to reduce CKD risk in people with diabetes.” Full release -

Put another way, unfortunately the stars are aligning in terms of evidence and understanding of the trajectory of persistently high rates of diabetes-related CKD and kidney failure which also disproportionately affect racial and ethnic minority groups, but there is both hope and increasing evidence that the rising tide can be turned via early interventions, and thus the need for FDA approval of KidneyIntelX is both urgent and compelling. And it certainly sounds like the FDA has a laser focus on the final hurdle!

[idomeneo] 01/11/2022 09:40

"mikemine118 Dec '21 - 17:57 - 1566 of 2012
0 5 0
Elsa7878, You mention cash burn but no reference to revenue, and therefore profit, forecasts.With a company like this that is like a coiled spring waiting to explode it is frankly ridiculous to look, with anything approaching certainty,as far ahead as 2023 never mind 2024."

Price at the time? 550p. 83% down. The BOD have not done well. They have repeatedly failed to live up to their promises. They weren't able to answer basic questions about cash burn on the call. Also a barely hidden brusqueness by one of the questioners mirrors the irritation felt by many of the BODs ability to deliver. After all this time most of the tests are from Mt Sinai, an interested partner in the investment. They have been saying that FDA is just around the corner for several years, and that's is where it still is.

[mikemine1] 01/11/2022 00:38

I'm in California atm so I'm a bit late to the party but a party it should be with this RNS. It's a party with some reservations, cash burn and some small doubt flagged about the FDA but overall they've done well to get so many contracts with various insurance companies and other avenues to sales.Those sales to individual clinicians should lead to multiple sales down the very short line as it gives them so much advance warning giving them opportunity to intervene more successfully. What clinician doesn't want the satisfaction of being both greatly more effective and seeing better results for his patients?

I'll leave speculation about industry link-ups to others but news of their progress will not be missed by interested parties.

It can't have been nice to see your company's share price go down and down, it certainly wasn't for PI's but the BOD can now breathe a little easier and hopefully some of the pressure will be off them. They've done well so let's hope they can now follow up with more progress.

[idomeneo] 31/10/2022 17:11

Robin - from the call, cash will last until 2024.

[wan] 31/10/2022 16:19

Todays Webcast is now available for those who missed it (including me) -

[robin_lemer] 31/10/2022 16:07

Am a shareholder. had sold half my holding a year ago as was concerned at the downward spiralling share price. Today's result and report gives me optimism going forward.

Another share from the same stable is Trellus. For those you who like me hold the shares from its inception we are suffering large paper losses. However I suggest holders and non shareholders read or see their latest presentation there is a lot to be positive about. The burn rate has been reduced and the cash will last until 2025.Importantly the largest body of gastroenterologists in US approve of Trellus treatment for IBS and IBD.Furthermore there are over 31 million sufferers in the US of one of these chronic conditions and they are usually diagnosed by their early 20's therefore the Trellus treatment plan would be used for many years.

[tomboyb] 31/10/2022 14:19

Good day today @ 20% up so far -

[homebrewruss] 31/10/2022 13:30

Ah dammit, just dialled in an hour late as it was 1.30pm BST advertised, questions in progress. Will have to wait for the recording.

Edit: looks like recording is now available on the link in the RNS from earlier

[tomboyb] 31/10/2022 10:56

Good start today -